DROPS! Im trying to figure it out... (Henne) | Page 2 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

DROPS! Im trying to figure it out... (Henne)

NBP81 said:
Why do you think his % goes down? And I expect his INTs to go down and maybe 2-3 more TDs...
Click to expand...

The style of play, mostly.

He's going to be throwing more this year. His INTs will probably stay the same (or somewhere near) because, even factoring luck evening out, there are going to be more passes flying and hence more chances for error. And with completion % will go down a bit because that usually happens when you throw the ball more. I'm not saying he's going to go down to 50, but maybe go down to 61 or 60 even.

By the same token, his TDs will probably shoot up around 28. He can reach 30 with little problem.
 
So Henne had the highest percentage of INTs held on to and I would guess our defense had the lowest percentage of INTs held on to. I would like to see the stats on Sanchez cause I would bet most of his possible INTs were dropped.

Its time to start sacrificing some kittens....
 
dolphone said:
The style of play, mostly.

He's going to be throwing more this year. His INTs will probably stay the same (or somewhere near) because, even factoring luck evening out, there are going to be more passes flying and hence more chances for error. And with completion % will go down a bit because that usually happens when you throw the ball more. I'm not saying he's going to go down to 50, but maybe go down to 61 or 60 even.

By the same token, his TDs will probably shoot up around 28. He can reach 30 with little problem.
Click to expand...
yup I can see 25-28 TDs just by adding Bush's playmaking and Gates speed, but still hope he cuts down onthe INTs... Wishful thinking I guess...
 
roy_miami said:
So Henne had the highest percentage of INTs held on to and I would guess our defense had the lowest percentage of INTs held on to. I would like to see the stats on Sanchez cause I would bet most of his possible INTs were dropped.

Its time to start sacrificing some kittens....
Click to expand...
i think it was something like 17 dropped INTs, something like that...
 
Locke said:
If he throws a good ball, he won't put himself in a situation where he has to asks the football gods what why they smite his face. Pretty easy solution...
Click to expand...

On the surface, this would make sense.

But I perused an article by KC Joyner (another notable game charter and analyzer) and saw this:

Another area that falls in Henne’s favor is the bad decision metric. Bad decisions are defined as when a quarterback makes a mistake with the ball that leads either to a turnover or a near turnover (e.g., dropped interception, fumble recovered by the offense, etc.).


Henne’s bad decision rate over the past two seasons is 1.9 percent, placing him in the top 13 in this metric in each of the past two years.


By contrast, Sanchez has had a 3.6 percent bad decision rate, placing him in the bottom six quarterbacks in this category in that same timeframe.


To put this last metric another way, Henne’s 1.9 percent rate means he makes a mistake of this nature about once in every 50 passes; Sanchez’s 3.6 percent rate means he makes an error like this about once every 28 passes.
Click to expand...

(ESPN Insider article, sorry for that :( )

Obviously the Sanchez bit is irrelevant, but it's not all about Henne making stupid mistakes. He *has* had very bad luck.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Something is wrong with QBs in this version. I play an online franchise with a group of guys going back to madden 10 when they first offered it. Man coverage wasn't all that in madden 10, zone coverage was the thing to use. In Madden 11, Man coverage was elite, you would have to run the same cheesy routes or plays to beat it. Now in 12, It looks like the zone is better, but IMO all QBs not named Brady, Manning, Rivers, Rodgers, Brees, Vick, and Ryan, flat out suck. You would try to throw a seam route against a cover 2 or 3, and the LB picks it off its it overthrown and the Safety picks it or drops the pick. Your best bet is to user the WR on the throw and try to snatch it before it gets too deep and picked. Many of you might say well, the QBs you named are in that upper echelon for a reason, they make those others cant... I agree with that but simple routes with no one near the receiver, can't be made. Maybe Henne can look good for some games and they will boost his ratings.

I also find your realistic comparison to be true. You got a guy like Sanchez who gets 5+ picks dropped against him in a SINGLE game versus us, and Henne who gets ONE dropped all season. We seem to catch the bad luck with those type of things but maybe we are due again for some luck. I think Sanchize runs out of that luck this season, and Henne finds it. Everyone threw out the Henne versus Sanchez comparison, and figures to be Sanchez is worlds better. Thats not the facts, and it will prove this season.
 
There are a number of reasons why Henne could have more INTs caught than other QBs. I'll throw a few out there.

1) The first is just bad luck. A statistical anomaly that could change this season. This is what we hope for.

2) Henne throws a harder ball than most. Does this result in a greater number of tipped balls (either by his own receiver or by the defense) that are then easily caught?

3) Henne has trouble with certain types of zone coverages. He's thrown the same INT several times, where he does not "see" the LB drop into coverage and throws it right to him. If Henne has a disproportionate number of this type of mistake, and therefore a disproportionate number of throws straight to the defender, it makes sense why a disproportionate number are caught.

These are just some ideas. They are easily proven or disproven by watching the film, but I certainly don't have the time to do it for several QBs. This topic has already been overanalyzed to death. If the stat holds for this season, then it will be worth delving into it further as it may indicate something about Henne's game that makes his passes more easily INT'd. Until then, it's bad luck in my book.
 
sharp said:
Something is wrong with QBs in this version. I play an online franchise with a group of guys going back to madden 10 when they first offered it. Man coverage wasn't all that in madden 10, zone coverage was the thing to use. In Madden 11, Man coverage was elite, you would have to run the same cheesy routes or plays to beat it. Now in 12, It looks like the zone is better, but IMO all QBs not named Brady, Manning, Rivers, Rodgers, Brees, Vick, and Ryan, flat out suck. You would try to throw a seam route against a cover 2 or 3, and the LB picks it off its it overthrown and the Safety picks it or drops the pick. Your best bet is to user the WR on the throw and try to snatch it before it gets too deep and picked. Many of you might say well, the QBs you named are in that upper echelon for a reason, they make those others cant... I agree with that but simple routes with no one near the receiver, can't be made. Maybe Henne can look good for some games and they will boost his ratings.

I also find your realistic comparison to be true. You got a guy like Sanchez who gets 5+ picks dropped against him in a SINGLE game versus us, and Henne who gets ONE dropped all season. We seem to catch the bad luck with those type of things but maybe we are due again for some luck. I think Sanchize runs out of that luck this season, and Henne finds it. Everyone threw out the Henne versus Sanchez comparison, and figures to be Sanchez is worlds better. Thats not the facts, and it will prove this season.
Click to expand...

He does have something special about the playoffs. The guy has legitimately stepped up his game then.

But I agree that Henne is bound to improve, and Sanchez to decline. We'll see.
 
Fwiw, Garrard had the second highest adjusted INT rate just behind Favre. Palmer is right up there too as one of the worst. Maybe we should just stick with Henne, lol.

Moore is actually the worst but in limited plays.
 
i think its quite apparent madden doesnt like henne.
 
oasis said:
There are a number of reasons why Henne could have more INTs caught than other QBs. I'll throw a few out there.

1) The first is just bad luck. A statistical anomaly that could change this season. This is what we hope for.

2) Henne throws a harder ball than most. Does this result in a greater number of tipped balls (either by his own receiver or by the defense) that are then easily caught?

3) Henne has trouble with certain types of zone coverages. He's thrown the same INT several times, where he does not "see" the LB drop into coverage and throws it right to him. If Henne has a disproportionate number of this type of mistake, and therefore a disproportionate number of throws straight to the defender, it makes sense why a disproportionate number are caught.

These are just some ideas. They are easily proven or disproven by watching the film, but I certainly don't have the time to do it for several QBs. This topic has already been overanalyzed to death. If the stat holds for this season, then it will be worth delving into it further as it may indicate something about Henne's game that makes his passes more easily INT'd. Until then, it's bad luck in my book.
Click to expand...

(2) is disproved easily. That same table shows tipped INTs, and Henne only has 1.

(3) is a myth that I'm still waiting for answers on.
 
NBP81 said:
I was just playing Madden 12 and unfortunately, I suck at it. And to make matters worse I cant get my self to play with any other team than the Fins on it. Anyways Henne really sucks in Madden, well the whole team sucks actually. I get picked off all the time and get lucky the other half when defenders drop the INT.

Long story short, it got me to think about that stat from football insider that had defenders dropping only ONE int on Henne all season. I mean thats really messed up for so many reasons its not even funny! Confidence wise, how the FK do you not look up at the sky and ask for anwsers? Especially when your own players continually drop easy passes... im playing a game and always feel Im being somewhat cheated, imagine Henne must feel about his life...

This might not be thread material but I've been trying to find a reasonable explanation for this and all I can come up with is bad luck.

And this is not a ''Im making excuses for franchise chad'' just find this particular statline odd...
Click to expand...

I'm pretty raw at madden. 4 games through and Henne has 10 TD and just 1 INT. Reggie Bush is also second in the league in yards.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom