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Economics of the Draft

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GPSURF

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Two interesting articles on the draft have links below. They both refer to a study done by 2 Economists that evaluated the value a team gets from picking in different areas of the draft. The conclusion is that trading top picks for lower picks helps a team succeed in the future. The cost benefit of drafting a first round player is lower compared to trading the pick for later picks. I found it interesting but I am a financial analysis so I usually like the statistics that are part of sports.

http://www.coyoteblog.com/coyote_blog/2005/04/economics_of_nf.html
http://www.aei.org/publications/filter.all,pubID.26118/pub_detail.asp
 
GPSURF said:
Two interesting articles on the draft have links below. They both refer to a study done by 2 Economists that evaluated the value a team gets from picking in different areas of the draft. The conclusion is that trading top picks for lower picks helps a team succeed in the future. The cost benefit of drafting a first round player is lower compared to trading the pick for later picks. I found it interesting but I am a financial analysis so I usually like the statistics that are part of sports.

http://www.coyoteblog.com/coyote_blog/2005/04/economics_of_nf.html
http://www.aei.org/publications/filter.all,pubID.26118/pub_detail.asp
Click to expand...


You definately cannot argue the benefit of trading down froma cap standpoint although you stand the chance of getting a lower rated player.
I would definately like to trade down because Im not sure i want to pay any of these players number one money, although that opinion may not matter since we were willing to pay number one money to a free agent that had 6.5 sacks last year. Thank God the Jets outbid us.
 
we may have no choice but to pay 1 money....I'm
hoping we trade down with the falcons and get an extra 2nd and then we'd still get Chris Long or Jake Long but is easier say than done.

Ozzy rules!!
 
Danny said:
we may have no choice but to pay 1 money....I'm
hoping we trade down with the falcons and get an extra 2nd and then we'd still get Chris Long or Jake Long but is easier say than done.
Click to expand...

Completely agree with this statement ...
 
GPSURF said:
Two interesting articles on the draft have links below. They both refer to a study done by 2 Economists that evaluated the value a team gets from picking in different areas of the draft. The conclusion is that trading top picks for lower picks helps a team succeed in the future. The cost benefit of drafting a first round player is lower compared to trading the pick for later picks. I found it interesting but I am a financial analysis so I usually like the statistics that are part of sports.

http://www.coyoteblog.com/coyote_blog/2005/04/economics_of_nf.html
http://www.aei.org/publications/filter.all,pubID.26118/pub_detail.asp
Click to expand...

Thanks for those links. :)

I guess that's just more information to support why you build (or rebuild ) a team through the draft, rather than free agency.

I've never been a fan of picking up players in free agency unless it was to fill a vacant position, since a free agent is usually a player that hasn't been deemed valuable enough to keep by the team(in other words, his performance wasn't enough to warrant the money he was making in his contract). Of course, there are some exceptions, like when a player's ability doesn't fit due to coaching personnel or philosophy changes, or when the team needs salary cap space. However, even in most of those cases, the team tries to trade for another player or draft picks, rather than letting the player hit the free agent market.

As far as trading out of the top spot in the draft - that's easier said than done, since there has to be a player that a GM deems valuable enough to trade up so much for.
 
Yes the salaries in the draft need to be capped and then the trades would happen but the greedy agents won't let that happen. Give the vets the money they deserve it and have proved they can play in the NFL these rookies are just shiny newbies that might fall apart as soon as you drive them off the show room floor!
 
I just hope some team is as crazy about Ryan as some fans on here, or that Jerry Jones is as in love with McFadden as has been rumored. I know it probably wont happen but it will be interesting to see how good a salesman Parcel and Ireland are.
 
Based on this study the teams with the top picks should take less then what the current NFL value chart indicate a top pick is worth. So if teams use this as a basis for trade value according to this study they are asking to high a price if they really want to trade down. It also mentions that the league has a distorted value on the top picks worth (probably from this chart). I didn’t read the whole paper but it does seem to suggest that the current value chart is not accurate based on their findings. It does make sense, but if you get lucky enough to draft a super star right out of college and are able to tie him up for a long period of time I think it would be the exception to the rule. I don’t see that type of player in this years draft but then again everyone thought Reggie Bush was going to be in the hall of fame before he even played a game so what do the “experts†know. I hope we can trade down but it does not seem likely.


NFL Value Chart
http://www.theredzone.org/2006/draft/draftvaluechart.asp
 
Right, we need to make the trade with Atlanta for DeAngelo Hall.
 
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