There was a huge line move on Tampa Bay this week, with the favorite changing hands. That's not working out too well for the books.
I've charted the line moves, including when I worked as sportsbook supervisor. I'd track which way the public small bettors were playing as opposed to the so-called wise guys. There really was no difference in terms of winning percentage. That's a long held myth, that the public money loses. The major difference is that the small bettors have poor instincts and often take the worst of the number, along with finding creative ways to turn a winning opinion into a losing ticket, via parlays or overreaction and poor money management in general. The guys who do it professionally are just the opposite -- maximizing their wagers by playing at the right time and getting a great number, along with playing into joints that offer reduced juice.
Chargers were up to -3 but once it hit that number there was quite a bit of resistance, dropping back to -2.5. No doubt it was some major groups playing a middle opportunity, since 3 is a huge number.
