ESPN Stats & Info: Chiefs favorites over Dolphins for final AFC wild card | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

ESPN Stats & Info: Chiefs favorites over Dolphins for final AFC wild card

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AL R

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There is a six-way tie for the final wild-card spot in the AFC. Currently, the Miami Dolphins(7-5) hold the No. 6 seed over five other teams with identical records due to various tiebreakers. You can check out the full explanation here.

But according to ESPN Stats & Information, the Kansas City Chiefs (7-5) are sizable favorites among the seven-win AFC teams to make the playoffs. Simulations give the Chiefs a 47 percent chance to make the postseason after the next four games. Keep in mind Kansas City owns the head-to-head tiebreaker over Miami, which may come into play down the stretch.

The Dolphins are ranked second with a 39 percent chance. That's not bad considering all the ups and downs Miami has been through. Three of the Dolphins' final four games are at home, which sets Miami up well to make a late push.

The Baltimore Ravens (7-5), who play Miami on Sunday, are third with a 33 percent chance. The winner of that game will definitely see its probability increase.

The Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5) have a 31 percent chance. The Buffalo Bills (7-5) andCleveland Browns (7-5) are bringing up the rear with a 17 and 13 percent chance, respectively.

It will be an interesting few weeks in the AFC -- and the Dolphins are right in the middle of the drama.

http://espn.go.com/blog/miami-dolphins/post/_/id/12048/espn-stats-and-info-chiefs-favorites-over-dolphins-for-final-afc-wild-card-spot
 
An Arizona win this weekend would be huge. KC still also has to go to Pittsburgh and has SD at home.
 
After Denver, I said we need to go 4-1 to make the playoffs. Now we need to go 3-1. The one loss cannot be Baltimore. If we lose next week, it will nearly be impossible to make the playoffs unless many teams collapse. Especially with a game against NE on the road the week after. If we lose those 2 games, the season is basically over. Next week is a must win for us.
 
San Diego is going to fall out IMO. I think both KC and SD will fall out, but this scnerio doesn't include the Chargers who are just as likely for the Fins to finish ahead of instead of KC. Miami holds the breaker of SD but not KC. SD also finishes with a tougher schedule then KC. If Miami goes 3-1 they will finish no worse then tied with SD at 10-6. Good chance SD losses 1 of SD/DEN at home and @SF & KC leaving them at 9-7 IMO.
 
We've got 3 home games and that lone road game @ NE. You really can't ask for more than that in this kind of stretch.

Win them. That's all we have to do. If we can't, then I doubt we have what it takes to make noise in the playoffs.
 
It's not going to be easy to be honest. I could definitely see them going 3-1 as well and if so, they will win the tiebreaker.

Cake walk against Oakland at home.

Two road games against Arizona and Pittsburgh

One home game against San Diego.

Our schedules are pretty similar in difficulty. Let's hope Arizona can pull the upset at home.
 
And of course if Miami beats Baltimore and SD beats NE, we're playing for the division in Foxborough and winning out would guarantee the division.
 
SunsPhinsfan03 said:
San Diego is going to fall out IMO. I think both KC and SD will fall out, but this scnerio doesn't include the Chargers who are just as likely for the Fins to finish ahead of instead of KC. Miami holds the breaker of SD but not KC. SD also finishes with a tougher schedule then KC. If Miami goes 3-1 they will finish no worse then tied with SD at 10-6. Good chance SD losses 1 of SD/DEN at home and @SF & KC leaving them at 9-7 IMO.
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Come to think of it, this guy is right. Holy smokes San Diego's schedule is brutal. They may be 8-4 but they may lose out.

vs New England
vs Broncos
@ San Fran
@ Kansas City

Wow! No way they make the playoffs through that
 
Unfortunately they are playing maybe the worst team in the NFL in Arizona this week.
 
The Ravens' remaining schedule:
@Dolphins
Jaguars
@Texans
Browns

The Chiefs' remaining schedule:
@Cardinals
Raiders
@Steelers
Chargers

The Chargers will probably fall out, but these 2 teams are going to give us the biggest problems for the spot.
 
SebasMiamiFan said:
After Denver, I said we need to go 4-1 to make the playoffs. Now we need to go 3-1. The one loss cannot be Baltimore. If we lose next week, it will nearly be impossible to make the playoffs unless many teams collapse. Especially with a game against NE on the road the week after. If we lose those 2 games, the season is basically over. Next week is a must win for us.
Click to expand...

If we lose to Baltimore we need to Cincinnati to beat Pittsburgh this weekend. But we are NOT losing to Baltimore this time.
 
enigmatics said:
We've got 3 home games and that lone road game @ NE. You really can't ask for more than that in this kind of stretch.

Win them. That's all we have to do. If we can't, then I doubt we have what it takes to make noise in the playoffs.
Click to expand...

This Ravens game scares me the most, just don't think we match up that well, getting Finnegan back would help some. If the Ravens win I think they get one spot based on their remaining schedule compared to the rest. The last spot could be a real fight coming down to the last week.
 
Albert Romano said:
This Ravens game scares me the most, just don't think we match up that well, getting Finnegan back would help some. If the Ravens win I think they get one spot based on their remaining schedule compared to the rest. The last spot could be a real fight coming down to the last week.
Click to expand...

Forsett has been on fire and with the way our run D has looked, I'm worried as well.
 
Albert Romano said:
This Ravens game scares me the most, just don't think we match up that well, getting Finnegan back would help some. If the Ravens win I think they get one spot based on their remaining schedule compared to the rest. The last spot could be a real fight coming down to the last week.
Click to expand...

Raven fans are not enthusiastic about their secondary. The media is making it like we are huge underdogs in this game, and the Ravens board is doom and gloom about their secondary.
 
That Texans game could be a trap game for the Ravens. Otherwise it looks like they'll go 10-6 at least.


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