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Evaluating our WR using Football Outsiders Stats

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FinHopeful

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There are a lot of opinions posted on this site about our WRs without an statistics to back them up. I compiled the following stats from Football Outsiders.

There are a lot of opinions posted on this site about our WRs without an statistics to back them up. I compiled the following stats from Football Outsiders.

Name, Team, DYAR, DYAR Rank, Passes, Catch Rate

S. Breaston, ARI 233, 13th, 95, 71%
Hines Ward, PIT, 173, 17th, 99, 62%
L. Coles, NYJ, 113, 29th, 89, 63%
Chad Johnson, CIN, 94, 36th, 89, 56%
Brandon Marshall, DEN, 71, 41st, 146, 57%
Chris Chambers, SD, 67, 43rd, 50, 52%
Greg Camarillo, MIA, 56, 46th, 83, 66%
Davone Bess, MIA, 52, 48th, 56, 70%
Terrel Owens, DAL, 43, 50th, 113, 49%
Roy Williams, DAL, 40, 51st, 64, 47%
Marcus Colston, NO, 24, 58th, 66, 48%
Devin Hester, CHI, 1, 63rd, 70, 57%
Ted Ginn, MIA, -3, 64th, 79, 61%
Mark Clayton, TB, -9, 65th, 46, 67%
Donnie Avery, STL, -12, 66th, 75, 51%

The receivers listed above are a sampling of the full list that illustrate some interesting facts:

First Observation: QB Accuracy
-----------------------
catch rate is strongly influenced by the quality of the QB. Farve, Warner, Jeff Garcia, and Penny are 4 of the top 5 QBs based upon completion percentage. Schaub is the fifth, but I excluded his receivers because he has been injured enough to skew the results. L. Coles's rate of 63% is the worst catch rate for receivers of accurate QBs. Actually, I think the abysmal catch rate of Terrell Owens (49%) and Roy Williams (47%) is the strongest proof of the importance of an accurate QB. The only way TO is the 50th ranked receiver is if the QB play is horrific!!!

Second Observation: Elevating Performance
------------------------------------------
Roethlisberger is one of the least accurate starting QBs in the league this year. Given previous years, this fact surprised me. Hines Ward is a great example of elevating WR performance above the play of your QB. He is a very valuable player. None of our receivers fit into this category. S. Breaston is the 3rd best receiver on a very talented Arizona receiving corp. Bess (70%) is our only reciever that approaches his 71% catch rate. Clearly, the DYAR scores are not where they need to be.

My Opinions
------------

* Davone Bess is going to be a very good player. He maximizes Penny's performance because of his very high catch rate. There are only 8 WR in the NFL with 45 passes thrown their way with a catch rate of 70% or more. Wow!!

* Ted Ginn is playing well enough to be one of the top 3 receivers on most NFL teams. That is not good enough for the number 9 pick. He may still become a very good receiver, but he is not even close this year.

* Greg Camarillo is a starting caliber receiver that is very efficient. I doubt he will ever be ranked above 31st on the DYAR, and he needs to improve significantly to get there.

* The Chris Chambers trade was a fantastic move. Phillip Rivers is the 10th rated QB based upon accuracy but Chambers catch rate is 52%. That is horrible.

* NE made the correct move stealing Wes Welker. He owns the best catch rate in the NFL at 76%. Tripple Wow!!!!!! We received ok compsensation for the larceny, but it still hurts.
 
Chambers only catches 52% of balls thrown his way? Wow...big surprise there....:rolleyes2:

I can't say this enough.....it's nice to go through a year without yelling 'HOLD ON TO THE **** BALL' at the tv every Sunday.
 
That was really interesting and the numbers dont lie, the perception of our WR corps definitely differs from the stats. I find the same rule applies to Ray Lewis the media hails him as the sencond coming yet statistically he doesn't register in the top 10 of almost any catagory excluding of course motivational speeches.
 
Mega-props to our 2 undrafted WRs: Camarillo and Bess. Thumbs up to the FO for recognizing Bess's potential and of course for giving Greg a legitimate chance to prove himself instead of arbitrarily throwing the baby out with the bathwater.

Great stats/revealing realistic perspective. Thanks
 
FinHopeful said:
There are a lot of opinions posted on this site about our WRs without an statistics to back them up. I compiled the following stats from Football Outsiders.

There are a lot of opinions posted on this site about our WRs without an statistics to back them up. I compiled the following stats from Football Outsiders.

Name, Team, DYAR, DYAR Rank, Passes, Catch Rate

S. Breaston, ARI 233, 13th, 95, 71%
Hines Ward, PIT, 173, 17th, 99, 62%
L. Coles, NYJ, 113, 29th, 89, 63%
Chad Johnson, CIN, 94, 36th, 89, 56%
Brandon Marshall, DEN, 71, 41st, 146, 57%
Chris Chambers, SD, 67, 43rd, 50, 52%
Greg Camarillo, MIA, 56, 46th, 83, 66%
Davone Bess, MIA, 52, 48th, 56, 70%
Terrel Owens, DAL, 43, 50th, 113, 49%
Roy Williams, DAL, 40, 51st, 64, 47%
Marcus Colston, NO, 24, 58th, 66, 48%
Devin Hester, CHI, 1, 63rd, 70, 57%
Ted Ginn, MIA, -3, 64th, 79, 61%
Mark Clayton, TB, -9, 65th, 46, 67%
Donnie Avery, STL, -12, 66th, 75, 51%

The receivers listed above are a sampling of the full list that illustrate some interesting facts:

First Observation: QB Accuracy
-----------------------
catch rate is strongly influenced by the quality of the QB. Farve, Warner, Jeff Garcia, and Penny are 4 of the top 5 QBs based upon completion percentage. Schaub is the fifth, but I excluded his receivers because he has been injured enough to skew the results. L. Coles's rate of 63% is the worst catch rate for receivers of accurate QBs. Actually, I think the abysmal catch rate of Terrell Owens (49%) and Roy Williams (47%) is the strongest proof of the importance of an accurate QB. The only way TO is the 50th ranked receiver is if the QB play is horrific!!!

Second Observation: Elevating Performance
------------------------------------------
Roethlisberger is one of the least accurate starting QBs in the league this year. Given previous years, this fact surprised me. Hines Ward is a great example of elevating WR performance above the play of your QB. He is a very valuable player. None of our receivers fit into this category. S. Breaston is the 3rd best receiver on a very talented Arizona receiving corp. Bess (70%) is our only reciever that approaches his 71% catch rate. Clearly, the DYAR scores are not where they need to be.

My Opinions
------------

* Davone Bess is going to be a very good player. He maximizes Penny's performance because of his very high catch rate. There are only 8 WR in the NFL with 45 passes thrown their way with a catch rate of 70% or more. Wow!!

* Ted Ginn is playing well enough to be one of the top 3 receivers on most NFL teams. That is not good enough for the number 9 pick. He may still become a very good receiver, but he is not even close this year.

* Greg Camarillo is a starting caliber receiver that is very efficient. I doubt he will ever be ranked above 31st on the DYAR, and he needs to improve significantly to get there.

* The Chris Chambers trade was a fantastic move. Phillip Rivers is the 10th rated QB based upon accuracy but Chambers catch rate is 52%. That is horrible.

* NE made the correct move stealing Wes Welker. He owns the best catch rate in the NFL at 76%. Tripple Wow!!!!!! We received ok compsensation for the larceny, but it still hurts.
Click to expand...

Judging ginn on that isnt fair. his game isnt like the rest of those players ont hat list nor does he have a QB to get him theball ike those players do.

Penny said they practiced that pass play to fasano for a TD last week numurous times during the week and it was ALWAYS intercepted by the S. bc he doesnt have the strenght to get the ball before the S can come and pick it off. that was a 20 yard pass that was very difficult for him to do with hill and bell back there. same goes for ginn, you think penny can get the ball to ginn 20 yards out? 15 yards out?

when and hopefully when henne can come in and do a good job you will see ginn being what he is, a playmaker and you will see bess or cam getting more touches 15 yards out just like the ARZ game when he came in
 
MiggeMadness said:
Chambers only catches 52% of balls thrown his way? Wow...big surprise there....:rolleyes2:

I can't say this enough.....it's nice to go through a year without yelling 'HOLD ON TO THE **** BALL' at the tv every Sunday.
Click to expand...

Amen!
 
SR 7 said:
Judging ginn on that isnt fair. his game isnt like the rest of those players ont hat list nor does he have a QB to get him theball ike those players do.

Penny said they practiced that pass play to fasano for a TD last week numurous times during the week and it was ALWAYS intercepted by the S. bc he doesnt have the strenght to get the ball before the S can come and pick it off. that was a 20 yard pass that was very difficult for him to do with hill and bell back there. same goes for ginn, you think penny can get the ball to ginn 20 yards out? 15 yards out?

when and hopefully when henne can come in and do a good job you will see ginn being what he is, a playmaker and you will see bess or cam getting more touches 15 yards out just like the ARZ game when he came in
Click to expand...

What do you think is the best use of Ted Ginn? How does this invalidate a well recognized statistical method for evaluating WR?

Please provide link for the quote from Penny. Especially, anything that refers to a lack of arm strength. I would love to see that quote. I am very hopeful that Penny stays healthy, and I am hopeful that Henne does not see the field for the next three years. Chad P. is an excellent QB who seems to win a lot of games with that weak arm.
 
A lot of Balls thrown to bess are quick out side routes and not usually down the field. But man can he run after the catch. I am curious how many yards he gets after the catch.
 
FinHopeful said:
What do you think is the best use of Ted Ginn? How does this invalidate a well recognized statistical method for evaluating WR?

Please provide link for the quote from Penny. Especially, anything that refers to a lack of arm strength. I would love to see that quote. I am very hopeful that Penny stays healthy, and I am hopeful that Henne does not see the field for the next three years. Chad P. is an excellent QB who seems to win a lot of games with that weak arm.
Click to expand...

it doesnt say due to weak arm you think hes going to say that publicly? WHY ELSE WOULD THAT PASS NOT WORK? THINK ABOUT IT. and its in the blog for the herald, sentinel etc where he says we tried that play numurous times.
 
PyroDOLFAN said:
A lot of Balls thrown to bess are quick out side routes and not usually down the field. But man can he run after the catch. I am curious how many yards he gets after the catch.
Click to expand...

yea just like welker but welker gets more deep out slants due to cassels and bradys arm strenght as oppose to pennys. Also when henne came in he delivered the same out slant pattern to Cam that welker sees all teh time.
 
SR 7 said:
it doesnt say due to weak arm you think hes going to say that publicly? WHY ELSE WOULD THAT PASS NOT WORK? THINK ABOUT IT. and its in the blog for the herald, sentinel etc where he says we tried that play numurous times.
Click to expand...

You missed my sarcasm. No, I did not expect it to say he had a weak arm. I think you are reading too much into the statement. There are numerous reasons for it to be a pick in practice including Fasano tipping it up in the air.
 
FinHopeful said:
You missed my sarcasm. No, I did not expect it to say he had a weak arm. I think you are reading too much into the statement. There are numerous reasons for it to be a pick in practice including Fasano tipping it up in the air.
Click to expand...

ok i think YOU are ASSUMING too much.
Pennington said everytime the pass was made the S picked it off so he talked to fasano and they decided to cut the route SHORT and more IN.

You think he got picked off 10 times b/c Fasano tipped it 10 times? or tipped it 7 timesi and 1 time it hit his helmet went into the air and another time another WR came and deflected it for no reason or another time whre it prob hit the FG post and into bells hands. C'mon bro
 
Catch rate is another one of those totally useless stats. It doesn't account for the QB's accuracy. And maybe more importantly, it doesn't account for the types of routes a guy is used on. For example, Davone Bess is used mostly on routes of less than 10 yards. Bess has had 29 passes thrown to him that covered 10 yards of less. He has caught 21. You should complete 70% of dump off passes, which is what these are. On balls thrown more than 10 yards, Bess has 8 catches on just 15 passes. As for the accuracy factor, Bess has only had 9 balls thrown to him all year that have been classified as overthrown, underthrown, thrown wide,or knocked down by a defender.

By comparison, Chambers has been thrown to 27 times on passes of more than 10 yards, versus just 23 times less than 10 yards. And Chambers has had a total of 21 passes classified as overthrown, underthrown, thrown wide, thrown out of bounds, or knocked down by a defender.

The other thing that the "catch rate" stat doesn't account for is who is covering the receiver. As the slot receiver for most of the season, and running underneath routes, Bess is often covered by a LB or S, or maybe a team's nickel back. Whereas a guy like Chambers is going to be covered by a team's #1 or #2 corner. It's a totally useless comparison.
 
PyroDOLFAN said:
A lot of Balls thrown to bess are quick out side routes and not usually down the field. But man can he run after the catch. I am curious how many yards he gets after the catch.
Click to expand...

Bess has 208 yards after the catch.
So, he is averaging 5.33 yards after the catch.
It also means the average completion to Bess covers 5.76 yards in the air. I like Bess a lot, but catching 70% of passes that cover 5.76 yards in the air is not that impressive.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/football/nfl/players/9030/receiving_splits.html
 
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