FearTheBeard
FearTheBurke
This is my annual mock offseason. With the signing of Suh and the start of free agency just a couple days away I thought I’d put it out there now that we’ve got a better idea of who we’re looking at and the market. This is partially a prediction, but more what I would do while keeping it realistic. Enjoy!
CUT
EXTEND/RESTRUCTURE
RE-SIGN
SIGN:
ROSTER ENTERING THE DRAFT
DRAFT (in development, haven’t done all my homework yet. Don’t read into it too much, this is more of a mock FA so far).
1. Eric Kendricks, MLB, UCLA
2. D.J. Humphries, OT/OG, Florida
3. Tre McBride, WR, William & Mary
4. Steven Nelson, CB, Oregon State
5. Josh Robinson, RB, Mississippi State
6. Deandre Smelter, WR, Georgia Tech
7. Kyle Loomis, P, Portland State
A LOOK AHEAD:
With the offseason at a close I finished up with just over $7.5M in available cap space. Assume $3M of that goes to the draft picks and we’re left with around $4M to carryover and $12M overall going into next offseason. That doesn’t seem like much with Tannehill needing an extension, as well as Lamar Miller and Olivier Vernon. Fortunately with the cutting of Wallace we save $9.3M. In addition to Wallace, with the drafting of Humphries we could potentially move on from Albert if he fails to return to form (saves $5.5M). Cameron Wake won’t return at his present salary and $8.4M will be saved cutting him. We’re all sick of Miko, so $6.5M can be saved moving on. Dion Jordan, Earl Mitchell, Koa Misi, Kenrick Ellis and Patrick Robinson can also be cut to free up additional space. Considering all that, we can free up a lot of cap space in Suh’s most expensive season.
CUT
| LB Dannell Ellerbe | He was always miscast in a 4-3, what an awful signing. Don’t be surprised if he returns value if he ends up in a 3-4, but it’s time to cut our losses even with our issues at LB. Savings: $5.65M |
| DT Randy Starks | Starks is a good soldier, think we really misused him last year rather than his play falling off a cliff. As a 3-tech generally used on passing downs I think he’d still be very effective. I’d consider him as depth but would rather add a run-stuffer since I think Anthony Johnson should get a chance on passing downs. Savings: $5M |
| P Brandon Fields | Simply making too much and his play has fallen off. Our offense is growing, paying backup QB’s and punters big salaries is no longer in the cards. Savings: $3.113M |
| LB Philip Wheeler (June 1[SUP]st[/SUP]) | This is one of the worst contracts I can remember…I won’t miss him. I’d hold onto him deep into FA to be sure I had enough space to sign my FA’s. By waiting till June 1[SUP]st[/SUP] the savings will practically cover our entire draft class. We have enough OLB’s with upside and even if we didn’t good riddance. Savings: $3M post June 1[SUP]st[/SUP] |
EXTEND/RESTRUCTURE
| QB Ryan Tannehill | I’m not including a Tannehill extension in this mock offseason, but these would be the figures I think could work. Extend: 7 years / $115M / $35M GTD / $15M SB | |||
| Cap Hit | 2015: $7.03M | 2016: $14.77M | 2017: $17M | 2018: $18M |
| OC Mike Pouncey | This is richer than I’d want to commit, but it’s what the market has set. He was awful at guard last year and I thought we’d get a better discount but doesn’t sound like it. At the end of the day he’s arguably been a top 5 center since entering the league and we need as much talent along the OL as possible. The way I’ve structured his contract is pretty comfortable and there’s no way I’d give him a bigger contract than this. Extend: 5 years / $35M / $20M GTD / $5M SB | |||
| Cap Hit | 2015: $4M | 2016: $7M | 2017: $8M | 2018: $8M |
| G Shelley Smith | I like Shelley, I don’t think he’ll ever be a great pass protector but with another year under Benton I think he can be a solid reserve. I’m bringing him back, just at a reduced rate since I think he’s better than the other depth options on the scrap heap. Depth is needed, he can duke it out with Dallas for a potential roster spot. I’ve given him a paycut but increased the GTD money on his deal. Restructure: $1.5M Cap Hit with additional $750K converted to GTD |
RE-SIGN
| DE Derrick Shelby | Shelby’s a solid football player and is solid depth. He excels as a run stuffer and I think would be useful giving Wake some rest on early downs. I’d like to see his role increase a bit. Re-sign: 2 years / $5M / $1.5M GTD | |||
| Cap Hit | 2015: $1.5M | 2016: $3.5M | | |
| FS Louis Delmas | Delmas did well for us last but is a ticking time bomb when it comes to staying healthy. Signs point to us retaining him if he’ll be ready for the season and he provides solid veteran leadership and fits what Coyle wants in his safeties. I’d look at Searcy as well but outside of him not a lot of great options and he’s probably more expensive than I’d be willing to go. Re-sign: 2 years / $7M / $3M GTD | |||
| Cap Hit | 2015: $3M | 2016: $4M | | |
| OT Jason Fox | Already retained, I’ve projected his cap hits since nothing is final yet. He’s alright, I would’ve preferred going after Ryan Harris because he stays healthy. We better hope Albert is healthy. Re-sign: 2 year / $2.5M / $500K GTD | |||
| Cap Hit | 2015: $1M | 2016: $1.5M | | |
| RB Knowshon Moreno | A polarizing figure here but as far as upside versus dollars he’s the best value to me. I want a veteran in the backfield and Moreno will be met by a soft market. If the kids emerge Moreno won’t block them unless he’s performing at a really high level. That would be a good problem to have. Re-sign: 1 year / $1.25M / $250K GTD / Max Value = $3M | |||
| Cap Hit | 2015: $1.25M | | | |
| MLB Kelvin Sheppard | Sheppard has the looks of a decent two down player. The cupboard is barren so he makes the most sense at the vet-minimum. No guarantee he makes the team. Re-sign: 1 year / $745K | |||
| Cap Hit | 2015: $745K | | | |
| DT A.J. Francis | Francis likely won’t see much playing time this year, but he’s young and will provide depth. ERFA Tender: 1 year / $585,000 | |||
| Cap Hit | 2015: $585K | 2016: RFA | | |
| FS Michael Thomas | I have high hopes for Thomas as a reserve. I’d get him to focus on FS so he’s ready in the likely event that Delmas gets injured again. ERFA Tender: 1 year / $585,000 | |||
| Cap Hit | 2015: $585K | 2016: RFA | | |
SIGN:
| DT Ndamukong Suh (Lions) | The man of the summer that everyone is talking about. Against my philosophy I would throw everything I have at him, it’s not often a player of his caliber hits the market. He can single handily blow up the interior OL rendering Shady useless, keeping Ivory in the backfield and getting in Brady’s face before he can throw his 30[SUP]th [/SUP]5 yard slant of the quarter. I know it’s a lot of money, but if we had drafted him best believe we’d be losing our mind at the fact we hadn’t resigned before he hit the market. Game changer. Sign: 6 years / $114M / $60M GTD / $25M SB | |||
| Cap Hit | 2015: $7M | 2016: $23M | 2015: $20M | 2015: $19M |
| OG Stefen Wisniewski (Raiders) | Suh means a guy like Franklin likely can’t be fit in. I’m fine with that, I think some great options are still out there that will solidify a guard spot. Wisniewski made the all-rookie team as a guard his rookie year, but has played the past 3 years as the Raiders center. He’s a good leader, good bloodlines and adds additional flexibility backing up Pouncey. I’d also look at Clint Boling. Wisniewski gets the edge as he excels as a pass protector. Sign: 4 years / $16M / $7M GTD / $2M SB | |||
| Cap Hit | 2015: $2M | 2016: $4M | 2017: $5M | 2018: $5M |
| CB Patrick Robinson (Saints) | He’s been linked to us and I think the fit makes sense. He may have been misused in New Orleans and Coyle works magic with questionable talent. Robinson at least is talented, maybe a change of scenery will help him realize his potential. I’d work him out of the slot, which means we’ll be seeing more of Jamar Taylor who can hopefully step up. Robinson can play the boundary in the event of an injury, but I would rather he not. With the current CB market being set extremely high I wouldn’t look at a guy like Chris Culliver this year, I’d just do my best to get by. Another guy I’d look at is Davon House who would add size and come at a less steep price tag than Culliver. Sign: 3 years / $13M / $5M GTD | |||
| Cap Hit | 2015: $2M | 2016: $5M | 2017: $6M | |
| NT Kenrick Ellis (Jets) | My favorite under the radar signing in all of FA, and Tannenbaum drafted him. Huge space eater who can play the 1-tech and make our run D unstoppable next to Suh. He’s a bit of a luxury add but it protects us if Suh gets suspended a game and he can keep Mitchell fresh. Sign: 2 year / $7M / $3M GTD | |||
| Cap Hit | 2015: $2.5M | 2016: $4.5M | | |
| CB Sterling Moore (Cowboys) | I was surprised to see the Cowboys non-tender Moore. He had a solid season in Dallas and would be the perfect Jimmy Wilson replacement as a jack of all trades. He can play safety, in the slot or on the boundary and would be great depth to have. Can never have enough corners. Sign: 3 year / $7M / $2M GTD | |||
| Cap Hit | 2015: $1.5M | 2016: $2M | 2017: $3.5M | |
| WR Cecil Shorts (Jaguars) | I really want Andre Holmes…I think he’d be a great fit and a guy I’d try to sign to an offer sheet for 4/16. Unfortunately I think the Raiders would match that since they keep striking out on guys, so I went with Shorts. He’s very injury prone, but can likely be had on a prove it deal. He’s a very solid YAC guy and won’t break the bank. The FA crop at WR is thin and I think he’s the best value and fit in our offense. Another guy I’d consider is Denarius Moore as a cheaper alternative. Gotta get some warm bodies on the roster before the draft. Sign: 1 year / $3.25M / $1.5M GTD | |||
| Cap Hit | 2015: $3.25M | | | |
| QB Colt McCoy (Redskins) | I’ve considered a couple cheap backups, particularly athletic guys who can work the read option. Guys like Tyrod Taylor and Tarvaris Jackson make sense. Jason Campbell is another vet option. I settled on McCoy because I think in the event of an injury he will limit mistakes and can win some games as a game manager. Sign: 1 year / $745K | |||
| Cap Hit | 2015: $745K | | | |
| WR Leonard Hankerson (Redskins) | Purely a depth signing. He went the U and has a productive season under his belt. He’s worth a camp invite as we try to rebuild the receiving core. Sign: 1 year / $745K | |||
| Cap Hit | 2015: $745K | | | |
| MLB Colin McCarthy (Titans) | Another U alumni he’s worth the camp invite. He has upside, just needs to stay healthy and can function as a SAM or as a MIKE. Sign: 1 year / $745K | |||
| Cap Hit | 2015: $745K | | | |
| WR Damaris Johnson (Texans) | Strictly a camp body. Did a good job getting YAC this year and is an undersized jitterbug who would strictly be a reserve slot option. Offers value as a return man too, probably would be competing for one roster spot with Hazel and would be a longshot…but 30 grabs last year in an underutilized position in the Texans offense. Sign: 1 year / $660K | |||
| Cap Hit | 2015: $660K | | | |
ROSTER ENTERING THE DRAFT
| Position | Starter | Backup | Third String |
| QB | Ryan Tannehill | Colt McCoy | McLeod Bethel-Thompson |
| RB | Lamar Miller | Knowshon Moreno | Damien Williams Mike Gillislee |
| WR1 | Mike Wallace | Leonard Hankerson | Michael Preston |
| WR2 | Cecil Shorts | Rishard Matthews | Tyler McDonald |
| SLOT | Jarvis Landry | Matt Hazel | Damaris Johnson |
| TE | Charles Clay | Dion Sims | Arthur Lynch Gerrell Robinson Jake Stoneburner |
| LT | Branden Albert | Ja’Wuan James | Jason Fox |
| LG | Billy Turner | Shelley Smith | Mark Asper |
| C | Mike Pouncey | Stefen Wisniewski | Sam Brenner |
| RG | Stefen Wisniewski | Dallas Thomas | Devonta Wallace |
| RT | Ja’Wuan James | Jason Fox | |
| | | | |
| DE | Cameron Wake | Derrick Shelby | Emmanuel Dieke |
| NT | Kenrick Ellis | Earl Mitchell | A.J. Francis Deandre Coleman |
| DT | Ndamukong Suh | Anthony Johnson | Kamal Johnson |
| DE | Olivier Vernon | Terrance Fede | |
| WLB | Jelani Jenkins | Jordan Tripp | |
| MLB | Koa Misi | Kelvin Sheppard | Jake Knott |
| SLB | Colin McCarthy | Dion Jordan | Chris McCain |
| CB1 | Brent Grimes | Will Davis | T.J. Heath |
| CB2 | Jamar Taylor | Patrick Robinson | Sammy Seamster Lowell Rose |
| NICKLE | Patrick Robinson | Sterling Moore | |
| FS | Louis Delmas | Michael Thomas | Sterling Moore |
| SS | Reshad Jones | Walt Aikens | |
| | | | |
| K | Zach Hocker | Caleb Sturgis | |
| P | | | |
| LS | John Denney | | |
DRAFT (in development, haven’t done all my homework yet. Don’t read into it too much, this is more of a mock FA so far).
1. Eric Kendricks, MLB, UCLA
2. D.J. Humphries, OT/OG, Florida
3. Tre McBride, WR, William & Mary
4. Steven Nelson, CB, Oregon State
5. Josh Robinson, RB, Mississippi State
6. Deandre Smelter, WR, Georgia Tech
7. Kyle Loomis, P, Portland State
| Position | Starter | Backup | Third String |
| QB | Ryan Tannehill | Colt McCoy | McLeod Bethel-Thompson |
| RB | Lamar Miller | Knowshon Moreno | Damien Williams Josh Robinson Mike Gillislee |
| WR1 | Mike Wallace | Rishard Matthews | Leonard Hankerson Deandre Smelter |
| WR2 | Cecil Shorts | Tre McBride | Michael Preston Tyler McDonald |
| SLOT | Jarvis Landry | Matt Hazel | Damaris Johnson |
| TE | Charles Clay | Dion Sims | Arthur Lynch Gerrell Robinson Jake Stoneburner |
| LT | Branden Albert | D.J. Humphries | Jason Fox |
| LG | Billy Turner | Shelley Smith | Mark Asper |
| C | Mike Pouncey | Stefen Wisniewski | Sam Brenner |
| RG | Stefen Wisniewski | Dallas Thomas | Devonta Wallace |
| RT | Ja’Wuan James | Jason Fox | |
| | | | |
| DE | Cameron Wake | Derrick Shelby | Emmanuel Dieke |
| NT | Kenrick Ellis | Earl Mitchell | A.J. Francis Deandre Coleman |
| DT | Ndamukong Suh | Anthony Johnson | Kamal Johnson |
| DE | Olivier Vernon | Terrance Fede | |
| WLB | Jelani Jenkins | Jordan Tripp | |
| MLB | Eric Kendricks | Kelvin Sheppard | Jake Knott |
| SLB | Koa Misi | Colin McCarthy | Dion Jordan Chris McCain |
| CB1 | Brent Grimes | Will Davis | Steven Nelson T.J. Heath |
| CB2 | Jamar Taylor | Patrick Robinson | Sammy Seamster Lowell Rose |
| NICKLE | Patrick Robinson | Sterling Moore | |
| FS | Louis Delmas | Michael Thomas | Sterling Moore |
| SS | Reshad Jones | Walt Aikens | |
| | | | |
| K | Zach Hocker | Caleb Sturgis | |
| P | Kyle Loomis | | |
| LS | John Denney | | |
A LOOK AHEAD:
With the offseason at a close I finished up with just over $7.5M in available cap space. Assume $3M of that goes to the draft picks and we’re left with around $4M to carryover and $12M overall going into next offseason. That doesn’t seem like much with Tannehill needing an extension, as well as Lamar Miller and Olivier Vernon. Fortunately with the cutting of Wallace we save $9.3M. In addition to Wallace, with the drafting of Humphries we could potentially move on from Albert if he fails to return to form (saves $5.5M). Cameron Wake won’t return at his present salary and $8.4M will be saved cutting him. We’re all sick of Miko, so $6.5M can be saved moving on. Dion Jordan, Earl Mitchell, Koa Misi, Kenrick Ellis and Patrick Robinson can also be cut to free up additional space. Considering all that, we can free up a lot of cap space in Suh’s most expensive season.
