This may be a bit premature, but I really couldn't help it. So I crunched some possibilities of how things might play out heading into the final game of the season with the Jets. How realistic do you think this is?
MIAMI: 9-6 heading into week 17
2 losses between now and then: EITHER to BUF OR NE, and one loss @ KC
3 wins between now and then: NE/BUF, STL, SF
3-2 division
NYJ: 10-5 heading into week 17
2 losses between now and then: TEN & DEN
3 wins between now and then: SF, SEA, BUF
4-1 division
Under this scenario, if the Phins win that showdown, both teams would finish 10-6 and 4-2 in the division. However, the Phins would win the tiebreaker on the basis of common opponents (9-3 vs. 8-4). The fact that we lost to the Texans and Ravens (not Jet opponents) rather than DEN, SD, or OAK would be huge. In fact, it would work out this way if the Jets' second loss was to DEN, SF, or SEA.
COMMON OPPONENTS:
Buff x 2
NE x 2
SF
SEA
ARZ
DEN
STL
SD
OAK
KC
MIA: 9-3
NYJ: 8-4
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I think this scenario is pretty realistic for Miami - they might do even better. However, I'm being a little hopeful on that second Jets loss I think. The scenario would also hold true if the Jets' second loss came to BUF instead of DEN - in that case, the Phins would win the tiebreaker (assuming they win the game of course) on the basis of division record.
Under this scenario, which is conservative for the Phins, a Phins' loss to the Jets in week 17 would probably cause us to miss the playoffs. The Jets might be able to lose that game and squeak in with a WC. However, if the Phins only lose once between now and week 17 (and Jets do same as I've projected), both teams would be 10-5 and the loser might still get in with a wildcard.
Either way, I think it's becoming more and more apparent that the week 17 game is going to be absolutely huge, barring a collapse by our beloved Phins.
So bottom line, here's what *we* need to do for this scenario (and a shot at the AFCE championship with a win over the Jets):
1) Beat NE or BUF
2) Beat 2 out of 3 (SF, STL, KC)
Here's what we need the Jets to do:
1) Lose to TEN
2) Lose one more game (DEN or SF or SEA or BUF)
Note that this scenario doesn't require us to beat NE on Sunday, but I think it certainly does require the Jets to lose to TEN...it's hard to see them getting two losses before playing us any other way.
GO PHINS!! :up:
MIAMI: 9-6 heading into week 17
2 losses between now and then: EITHER to BUF OR NE, and one loss @ KC
3 wins between now and then: NE/BUF, STL, SF
3-2 division
NYJ: 10-5 heading into week 17
2 losses between now and then: TEN & DEN
3 wins between now and then: SF, SEA, BUF
4-1 division
Under this scenario, if the Phins win that showdown, both teams would finish 10-6 and 4-2 in the division. However, the Phins would win the tiebreaker on the basis of common opponents (9-3 vs. 8-4). The fact that we lost to the Texans and Ravens (not Jet opponents) rather than DEN, SD, or OAK would be huge. In fact, it would work out this way if the Jets' second loss was to DEN, SF, or SEA.
COMMON OPPONENTS:
Buff x 2
NE x 2
SF
SEA
ARZ
DEN
STL
SD
OAK
KC
MIA: 9-3
NYJ: 8-4
=======================
I think this scenario is pretty realistic for Miami - they might do even better. However, I'm being a little hopeful on that second Jets loss I think. The scenario would also hold true if the Jets' second loss came to BUF instead of DEN - in that case, the Phins would win the tiebreaker (assuming they win the game of course) on the basis of division record.
Under this scenario, which is conservative for the Phins, a Phins' loss to the Jets in week 17 would probably cause us to miss the playoffs. The Jets might be able to lose that game and squeak in with a WC. However, if the Phins only lose once between now and week 17 (and Jets do same as I've projected), both teams would be 10-5 and the loser might still get in with a wildcard.
Either way, I think it's becoming more and more apparent that the week 17 game is going to be absolutely huge, barring a collapse by our beloved Phins.
So bottom line, here's what *we* need to do for this scenario (and a shot at the AFCE championship with a win over the Jets):
1) Beat NE or BUF
2) Beat 2 out of 3 (SF, STL, KC)
Here's what we need the Jets to do:
1) Lose to TEN
2) Lose one more game (DEN or SF or SEA or BUF)
Note that this scenario doesn't require us to beat NE on Sunday, but I think it certainly does require the Jets to lose to TEN...it's hard to see them getting two losses before playing us any other way.
GO PHINS!! :up:
