Fins/Patriots tie breaks

[masseyevich]

I had a little time to kill this evening so I thought I'd look at the tie-breaks if the Fins & Pats finish with the same record:

1) Head to head - tied
2) Division games - tied, unless the patriots lose to buffalo (In which case Dolphins win division)
3) Common games - tied (The patriots are 1-1 in the only two "uncommon games" they play this season: Denver & Baltimore, if the fins win out they would also be 1-1 in uncommon games (SD & Pit) therefore we'd have a tied record in common games. Incidentally, if we lose 1 (or more) of the last 4 & the pats lose 2 (or more), we'd win the division if our loss was to Pittsburgh, otherwise, it'd still be tied.
4) Conference record - Dolphins win, unless Patriots loss (or one of their losses) is to Carolina
5) Strength of victory - Assuming a "Dolphins win out, patriots lose 1" scenario, the Dolphins currently have the edge - all our wins would be against the same teams except the following:
Pats: Baltimore (6-6), Atlanta (6-6) & one more win than the fins against the Bills (4-8)
Fins: One more win than pats against the Jets (6-6), Pittsburgh (6-6) & Carolina (5-7, or 6-7 if you count the win the Panthers would have from beating the Pats for us to get to this point in the tiebreaks)
Of course, these teams records will change, but we effectively have a two win edge in our strength of schedule at the moment)

on strength of schedule, in a fins lose 1 or more, pats lose 2 or more scenario it gets a little too complicated, but depending on who the second losses were to, we'd have to start factoring in the records of Jacksonville, Houston and/or Tenessee...

In short, if we win one more game than the Patriots in the last 4, (and at least as many as the Jets) I'm pretty sure we'll win the division.

 

[ricky 2 ginn td]

ur explanation is quite confusing sir

 

[phinsfan84]

nice work. Ive done the same and id say that if....IF the pats lose again and we manage to win out that we would more than likely win the division but as you stated it will go at least a couple of tie breakers deep.

 

[masseyevich]

The tiebreaks are confusing, I'm sure I could have been clearer with my explanations - I'll have a go.

If we win one more than the Pats, they can only beat us in the tiebreak if it goes down to strength of schedule, and the strength of schedule swings fairly heavily in their favor between now and the end of the season (In other words, between now & the end of the season, the Patriots would need Baltimore, the Bills & Atlanta win 2 more games combined than the Jets, Steelers and Panthers combined)

The only way it would go down as far as strength of schedule is if the Patriots loss, or one of their losses is against Carolina. Otherwise we would win on division record, common games or conference record.