FearTheBeard
FearTheBurke
So I'm seeing a lot of backlash with our new hire, and I find a lot of it to be unfounded. I do get the skepticism. It's been a long time since we've been anything short of a joke around the league and the team has been unwatchable for at minimum the past 4 years. But I think it's important to look at this hire, and at least consider some facts before forming our opinions. One of the biggest things I hear, is we needed a guy with prior head coaching experience. That was my preference as well, but I wasn't married to that idea. People point to Gase as "inexperienced", but lets just look at a really simple sample. The current HC's in the playoffs, and how their resumes stacked up when they were hired.
Out of the 12 playoff teams, there are 8 coaches who are first time NFL HC's. Only one had prior HC'ing experience at any level, and that was Bill O'Brien. You can choose to ignore him from this breakdown or include him. Lets say we only consider first time NFL HC's. We get a list of Marvin Lewis, Mike Tomlin, Mike Zimmer, Mike McCarthy, Jay Gruden, Bruce Arians, Ron Rivera and Bill O'Brien. You can argue that these are some of the brightest minds in the NFL. There is also no argument, that they were all at one point first time head coaches with their respective teams.
Okay okay, but Gase only has three years as a coordinator you'll say. He lacks the necessary experience to lead the team...you also might say something along the lines of, well Peyton Manning carried him and he didn't even make Jay Cutler any better than the year before, how has this guy earned it? Aside from every single person I've heard talk on the subject give Gase a huge amount of credit for his work with Peyton, including the man himself, he managed to keep the Bears offense afloat with Jay Cutler throwing to the likes of Marc Mariani, Josh Bellamy and Marquess Wilson for much of the season, instead of Brandon Marshall, who was traded and Alshon Jeffrey who missed nearly half the season. Throw in the fact that Forte missed 3 games and Martellus Bennett missed 5 and you have a better idea of what he had to work with. Mariani and Bellamy is basically going to PS guys from two pro-bowlers.
Now for the inexperienced title that is getting thrown around. Lets take a look at the 8 HC's that made the playoffs as first time HC's this past season. Lets consider how many years of experience they had as a coordinator before their job and how their units ranked in yards against and points against. I'll do this because I see a lot of people throw around that Gase is coming from a 6 win team, that didn't markedly improve offensively. I've outlined the extremely short deck he had to work with, but I'll reinforce it here.
Mike Tomlin: You want inexperienced? Mike Tomlin had 1 year of experience as a DC. He replaced Bill Cowher as HC of the Steelers. His defense was ranked 8th in yards against, and 14th in points against in his one year where he was elevated above position coach. He led the Steelers to a 31-17 mark through his first 3 seasons and won a super bowl in his second year. He was hired at 35 years of age.
Marvin Lewis: Lewis has one of the more experienced guys entering his first job. He had been the DC for the Ravens for 6 years, and spent one in the same role with Washington. So 7 years before he got his shot. His defenses finished on average 12th in the league in yards against and 13th in points against. Strong numbers, that improved the longer he worked somewhere. He led the Bengals to a 27-21 mark through his first 3 years. He was hired at 45.
Mike Zimmer: Zimmer had 14 years of experience as a DC, with stops in Dallas, Atlanta and Cincy. His defenses finished an average of 11th in total yards against, and an average of 15th in points against. He has lead the Vikings to an 18-14 mark over his first two seasons on the job, and should probabaly have a playoff victory on his resume. He was hired at 58.
Mike McCarthy: McCarthy had 6 years of experience as a coordinator. He was the OC for the Saints for 5 years and then spent one year with the 49ers. His offenses finished an average of 14th in yards for and points against. He had 6 years of experience as a coordinator and led an offense to a top 10 scoring season twice. He lead the Packers to a 27-21 record through his first 3 seasons. He was hired at 43 years of age.
Jay Gruden: Don't tell me that coaching in the Arena League qualifies as HC'ing experience. Lets just move past that. Gruden is looking like one of the better head coaching minds out there right now. He has 3 years of NFL experience as a coordinator. He was the OC for the Bengals for three seasons before getting his shot with the Redskins. His offenses averaged 17th in total yards and 12th in scoring offense. He led one top 10 scoring season in his 3 years. He has lead the Bengals to a 13-19 mark, with a playoff appearance this year. He was hired at 47.
Ron Rivera: Riverboat Ron had 6 years of experience before joining the Panthers. He spent time as a DC in Chicago and San Diego. His teams were 12th in yardage against and an average of 9th in scoring defense. Both very solid marks. He has lead the Panthers to a 25-23 mark in his first 3 years on the job. He was hired at 49.
Bruce Arians: One of my favorite coaches. Arians had 9 years of experience as an offensive coordinator spread over Cleveland, Pittsburgh and Indy. He isn't technically a first time coach so factor him out if you chose to, since he did fill in as an interim coach in Indy. His offenses finished an average of 18th in yards and points. He has lead the Cardinals to a 34-14 mark through his first 3 years. He was hired at the age of 61.
Bill O'Brien: O'Brien only had one year of experience as an OC at the NFL level. What got him his job was the two years of work he did at Penn State. Lets call it 3 years of coaching experience. He still meets our criteria as a first time NFL HC. As a coordinator his offense finished 2nd in yards and 3rd in points. As HC of the Texans he has lead them to a 18-14 mark. He was hired at 45 years of age.
So with all that factored in, what is the composite profile of a current first time coach who is moving his team to the playoffs? What does their body of work, going into that role look like? We'll factor in the first 6 first.
Among our 6 coaches they:
- Have an average of just over 6 years of experience.
- Their units finish an average of 12th in yards and 13th in scoring.
- They were hired at an average age of 46.
- They have a cumulative 141-115
Among our 8 coaches they:
- Have an average of just over 6 years of experience
- Their units finish an average of 11th in yards and 12th in scoring.
- They were hired at an average age of 48 years of age
- They have a cumulative 193-143
So how does Adam Gase stack up?
- He has 3 years of experience. More than Mike Tomlin and the same as Jay Gruden. The same as Bill O'Brien as well, and more experience at the NFL level. Rank: 6 out of 9
- Unit finished an average of 8th in yards and scoring. Rank: 2 out of 9 (arguably one sinc O'Brien's sample is so small).
- Hired at 38 years of age.
Now I could've taken this study deeper. I could've taken into account personnel as I'm sure people will point to Peyton. The same way I could point to Arians having Palmer, McCarthy having Favre and Rodgers, or Tomlin having Big Ben. I just wanted to illustrate that being a first time head coach isn't a hindrance. It's about making the right hire. At the end of the day this is a crapshoot, and we shouldn't act like we know so much about something we know so little about. Gase has the production, has worked under some of the greatest minds in football, and has built strong relationships with both players and coaches in every stop. He's a homerun cut, that will likely end being highly successful, or a disaster. After 4 years of Joe Philbin we should embrace a change like that and give him a shot. I'm not telling you how to feel, just consider the facts:
- First time head coaches comprise 8 out of 12 playoff teams this year.
- First time coaches have found early success with their teams
- Adam Gase has the best production with his units over the course of his career as a coordinator.
- Gase can maximize talent on offense, even offenses devoid of talent. The Bears is the obvious one. Getting career years out of Brandon Lloyd and Jabar Gaffney is another.
Prior head coaching experience isn't a markedly better route to take statistically than 1st time head coaches. There are tons of successful 1st time head coaches, and just because we made terrible hires of coordinators in the past doesn't mean we should eliminate first time HC's from consideration. That is poor business. They are individual cases and shouldn't be used to predict the future. There were clear red-flags with Philbin and Cameron that our FO failed to see. For all the grief Tannenbaum gets, how happy am I to have such an efficient coaching search after the debacle we endured trying to find a GM. This is a positive development for our football team. Now we just have to hope for results.
I for one support our coach. He wasn't my first choice, but the more you read about him the more you're impressed. I think it's impossible to argue that his football acumen is among the best in the league based on his past success and every report that has come out from former people he has worked with. He doesn't have an ego, but pushes his players to be successful and has EQ skills that our coaches in the past have lacked. I've been fooled before by this team, but I feel really good about this man leading the charge. I hope you consider some of these numbers and have a more positive spin on this hire. The point of this thread is to provide some more information, on a subject i consider people to be very misinformed on. Take this evaluation and do what you will with it.
Out of the 12 playoff teams, there are 8 coaches who are first time NFL HC's. Only one had prior HC'ing experience at any level, and that was Bill O'Brien. You can choose to ignore him from this breakdown or include him. Lets say we only consider first time NFL HC's. We get a list of Marvin Lewis, Mike Tomlin, Mike Zimmer, Mike McCarthy, Jay Gruden, Bruce Arians, Ron Rivera and Bill O'Brien. You can argue that these are some of the brightest minds in the NFL. There is also no argument, that they were all at one point first time head coaches with their respective teams.
Okay okay, but Gase only has three years as a coordinator you'll say. He lacks the necessary experience to lead the team...you also might say something along the lines of, well Peyton Manning carried him and he didn't even make Jay Cutler any better than the year before, how has this guy earned it? Aside from every single person I've heard talk on the subject give Gase a huge amount of credit for his work with Peyton, including the man himself, he managed to keep the Bears offense afloat with Jay Cutler throwing to the likes of Marc Mariani, Josh Bellamy and Marquess Wilson for much of the season, instead of Brandon Marshall, who was traded and Alshon Jeffrey who missed nearly half the season. Throw in the fact that Forte missed 3 games and Martellus Bennett missed 5 and you have a better idea of what he had to work with. Mariani and Bellamy is basically going to PS guys from two pro-bowlers.
Now for the inexperienced title that is getting thrown around. Lets take a look at the 8 HC's that made the playoffs as first time HC's this past season. Lets consider how many years of experience they had as a coordinator before their job and how their units ranked in yards against and points against. I'll do this because I see a lot of people throw around that Gase is coming from a 6 win team, that didn't markedly improve offensively. I've outlined the extremely short deck he had to work with, but I'll reinforce it here.
Mike Tomlin: You want inexperienced? Mike Tomlin had 1 year of experience as a DC. He replaced Bill Cowher as HC of the Steelers. His defense was ranked 8th in yards against, and 14th in points against in his one year where he was elevated above position coach. He led the Steelers to a 31-17 mark through his first 3 seasons and won a super bowl in his second year. He was hired at 35 years of age.
Marvin Lewis: Lewis has one of the more experienced guys entering his first job. He had been the DC for the Ravens for 6 years, and spent one in the same role with Washington. So 7 years before he got his shot. His defenses finished on average 12th in the league in yards against and 13th in points against. Strong numbers, that improved the longer he worked somewhere. He led the Bengals to a 27-21 mark through his first 3 years. He was hired at 45.
Mike Zimmer: Zimmer had 14 years of experience as a DC, with stops in Dallas, Atlanta and Cincy. His defenses finished an average of 11th in total yards against, and an average of 15th in points against. He has lead the Vikings to an 18-14 mark over his first two seasons on the job, and should probabaly have a playoff victory on his resume. He was hired at 58.
Mike McCarthy: McCarthy had 6 years of experience as a coordinator. He was the OC for the Saints for 5 years and then spent one year with the 49ers. His offenses finished an average of 14th in yards for and points against. He had 6 years of experience as a coordinator and led an offense to a top 10 scoring season twice. He lead the Packers to a 27-21 record through his first 3 seasons. He was hired at 43 years of age.
Jay Gruden: Don't tell me that coaching in the Arena League qualifies as HC'ing experience. Lets just move past that. Gruden is looking like one of the better head coaching minds out there right now. He has 3 years of NFL experience as a coordinator. He was the OC for the Bengals for three seasons before getting his shot with the Redskins. His offenses averaged 17th in total yards and 12th in scoring offense. He led one top 10 scoring season in his 3 years. He has lead the Bengals to a 13-19 mark, with a playoff appearance this year. He was hired at 47.
Ron Rivera: Riverboat Ron had 6 years of experience before joining the Panthers. He spent time as a DC in Chicago and San Diego. His teams were 12th in yardage against and an average of 9th in scoring defense. Both very solid marks. He has lead the Panthers to a 25-23 mark in his first 3 years on the job. He was hired at 49.
Bruce Arians: One of my favorite coaches. Arians had 9 years of experience as an offensive coordinator spread over Cleveland, Pittsburgh and Indy. He isn't technically a first time coach so factor him out if you chose to, since he did fill in as an interim coach in Indy. His offenses finished an average of 18th in yards and points. He has lead the Cardinals to a 34-14 mark through his first 3 years. He was hired at the age of 61.
Bill O'Brien: O'Brien only had one year of experience as an OC at the NFL level. What got him his job was the two years of work he did at Penn State. Lets call it 3 years of coaching experience. He still meets our criteria as a first time NFL HC. As a coordinator his offense finished 2nd in yards and 3rd in points. As HC of the Texans he has lead them to a 18-14 mark. He was hired at 45 years of age.
So with all that factored in, what is the composite profile of a current first time coach who is moving his team to the playoffs? What does their body of work, going into that role look like? We'll factor in the first 6 first.
Among our 6 coaches they:
- Have an average of just over 6 years of experience.
- Their units finish an average of 12th in yards and 13th in scoring.
- They were hired at an average age of 46.
- They have a cumulative 141-115
Among our 8 coaches they:
- Have an average of just over 6 years of experience
- Their units finish an average of 11th in yards and 12th in scoring.
- They were hired at an average age of 48 years of age
- They have a cumulative 193-143
So how does Adam Gase stack up?
- He has 3 years of experience. More than Mike Tomlin and the same as Jay Gruden. The same as Bill O'Brien as well, and more experience at the NFL level. Rank: 6 out of 9
- Unit finished an average of 8th in yards and scoring. Rank: 2 out of 9 (arguably one sinc O'Brien's sample is so small).
- Hired at 38 years of age.
Now I could've taken this study deeper. I could've taken into account personnel as I'm sure people will point to Peyton. The same way I could point to Arians having Palmer, McCarthy having Favre and Rodgers, or Tomlin having Big Ben. I just wanted to illustrate that being a first time head coach isn't a hindrance. It's about making the right hire. At the end of the day this is a crapshoot, and we shouldn't act like we know so much about something we know so little about. Gase has the production, has worked under some of the greatest minds in football, and has built strong relationships with both players and coaches in every stop. He's a homerun cut, that will likely end being highly successful, or a disaster. After 4 years of Joe Philbin we should embrace a change like that and give him a shot. I'm not telling you how to feel, just consider the facts:
- First time head coaches comprise 8 out of 12 playoff teams this year.
- First time coaches have found early success with their teams
- Adam Gase has the best production with his units over the course of his career as a coordinator.
- Gase can maximize talent on offense, even offenses devoid of talent. The Bears is the obvious one. Getting career years out of Brandon Lloyd and Jabar Gaffney is another.
Prior head coaching experience isn't a markedly better route to take statistically than 1st time head coaches. There are tons of successful 1st time head coaches, and just because we made terrible hires of coordinators in the past doesn't mean we should eliminate first time HC's from consideration. That is poor business. They are individual cases and shouldn't be used to predict the future. There were clear red-flags with Philbin and Cameron that our FO failed to see. For all the grief Tannenbaum gets, how happy am I to have such an efficient coaching search after the debacle we endured trying to find a GM. This is a positive development for our football team. Now we just have to hope for results.
I for one support our coach. He wasn't my first choice, but the more you read about him the more you're impressed. I think it's impossible to argue that his football acumen is among the best in the league based on his past success and every report that has come out from former people he has worked with. He doesn't have an ego, but pushes his players to be successful and has EQ skills that our coaches in the past have lacked. I've been fooled before by this team, but I feel really good about this man leading the charge. I hope you consider some of these numbers and have a more positive spin on this hire. The point of this thread is to provide some more information, on a subject i consider people to be very misinformed on. Take this evaluation and do what you will with it.
