Football Outsiders Early 2017 Season Prediction for AFC East | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Football Outsiders Early 2017 Season Prediction for AFC East

DuderinoN703

DuderinoN703

We? What the **** we?
Club Member
Joined
Oct 13, 2004
Messages
47,429
Reaction score
18,868
Location
Northern Virginia
1. New England Patriots: 13-3 (13.2 mean wins; strength of schedule: 32)
2. Buffalo Bills: 7-9 (6.9 mean wins; SOS: 23)
3. Miami Dolphins: 6-10 (6.3 mean wins; SOS: 18)
4. New York Jets: 6-10 (6.3 mean wins; SOS: 25)


If you're sick of seeing the Patriots at the top of the AFC year after year, I have some bad news for you: New England has a top-five projection in all three phases of the game. On top of that, we also project the Patriots with the easiest schedule in the NFL for 2017. We're forecasting decline for many of their out-of-division opponents, including Atlanta, Denver and Kansas City. Meanwhile, the rest of the AFC East comes in under .500, although this initial Dolphins projection seems a bit over-pessimistic. The Dolphins' 10-6 record last season was built on an easy schedule, but Miami wasn't a bad team that lucked into a playoff spot, just an average one. On the other hand, the offensive projection is driven by the quarterback, and Ryan Tannehill has finished 24th and 27th in QBR over the past two seasons.
Click to expand...

http://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/19097144/football-outsiders-early-2017-nfl-projections
 
We have almost the same schedule as Pats and yet they have ours 14 spots ahead of the Pats. They have the Bills and Jets at pretty much the same record as last year and claim our out of division opponents will be weaker and yet somehow we still finish last. We might as well pack it in and sleep 2017 away.
 
Yea but the Football INSIDERS have us with 10 - 11 wins and competing for the division. I'll go with them :up:
 
giphy.gif
 
While I like the Football Outsiders for stats that tell you "what happened" it's a totally different animal to tell you "what will happen".

If any of these sports predictors actually believed their projections then they should've put their money where their articles are and made millions betting on their statistical models.

The article starts off with "Things change rapidly in the NFL" and then makes the ridiculous transition into "ratings over the last three seasons". Not taking into account what actually happens between seasons.

ESPN published so much garbage, there isn't a trash dump big enough to store it so they drop it on their "insiders".
 
That's fine. Let the entire team know they are going to go 6-10.
 
For what it's worth, these was their projections around this time last year before the 2016 season:

1. New England Patriots: 10-6 (10.3 mean wins, SOS: 16)
2. Buffalo Bills: 9-7 (8.6 mean wins; SOS: 15)
3. New York Jets: 6-10 (6.0 mean wins; SOS: 2)
4. Miami Dolphins: 5-11 (4.7 mean wins; SOS: 4)

This year's projections assume that Tom Brady will serve his four-game Deflategate suspension. While it's a big deal, you might be surprised to hear that in our current forecast, the Patriots win an average of 1.9 games during Brady's suspension; with Brady as quarterback, we would project them for 2.5 wins in those four games. So four games without Brady cost the Patriots less than one win. But at the same time, preseason forecasts like this end up grouping around 8-8 because they account for so much randomness. That means that one win indicates a bigger difference between teams than it would at the end of a season.

Our forecast gives the Bills their best chance in a while to break that long playoff drought. We project a bit of a decline on offense, though it's hard to know what to expect from Tyrod Taylor after he was much better than anyone would have expected in his first year as a starter. But no matter what happens on the offensive side of the ball, the Buffalo defense is likely to bounce back from last year's collapse. The Bills had been a top-five defense by DVOA for two seasons before dropping to 24th in 2015.
Click to expand...
 
I feel like they just want the bills to be better. On paper the Fins are clearly the more talented team with a better coach.
 
I like being real. when it come to nfl. on paper we look like 9-7 or 10-6 team but with that schedule we could be 7 to 10 win team. I do not expect nfl network, espn and other to say dolphins are great team after one winning yr. how good dolphins play will depend on team ball and good coaching.
 
Ruckus45 said:
I feel like they just want the bills to be better. On paper the Fins are clearly the more talented team with a better coach.
Click to expand...

They do. Year after year the media says this is the Bills year to make it back to the playoffs. Yet the Bills have had one winning season in the last 12 and 2 since their last playoff season. In December, the Bills were being regarded as one of the worst dumpster fires in the league, right there with the Browns and 49ers. They hire an unproven HC and sign Tyrod freakin Taylor back and now they're no longer a dumpster fire? Oh BS. Oh and the Pats, Bills and Jets all played a similar schedule as the Dolphins but WE had the easy schedule? Oh BS again.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom