According to their latest season predictions, Football Outsiders predicts we're going to be about the 10th best team in the NFL in overall performance. Their model sees a top-10 offense (9th), top-half defense (12th), and lousy special teams (23rd).
Since they also predict the Pats as division champs and the Jets and Ravens as wildcards, we would end up out of the playoffs. The difference isn't that big (we're projected for 8.5 wins, BAL/NYJ for 9.5/9.6 respectively), but it would mean an 8-8 or 9-7 record, and out of playoff contention.
-- ADDENDUM --
I forgot to say this outcome is mostly related to our schedule. We're currently facing the 4th hardest schedule in the league (according to them, and their predictions, obviously). Makes it kind of hard to succeed even with a good team...
-- ADDENDUM --
For full disclosure, here's a track record of their notable hits and misses (in preseason projections):
2004: predicted a bounceback season for the NYJ (6-10 in 2003, 10-6 in 2004), as well as the meteoric rise of the Chargers (4-12 in 2003, 12-4 in 2004).
2005: predicted a NE decline in wins, but still holding on to the division. Missed badly on Miami (predicted around 5 wins, actually had 9). Had Indianapolis with the highest projected wins in the entire AFC. Missed awfully on the Eagles, forecasting around 12 wins and practically guaranteeing playoffs; conversely, had the Giants as a lousy team (the NYG won the division that year at 11-5, and Philly completed a crappy 6-10 season). Correctly saw TB improving dramatically, and Atlanta declining as sharply. Pretty much guaranteed a deep playoff run for the Seahawks, as the second best team in the NFC after the Eagles.
2006: Correctly saw a Miami downturn. Pegged Baltimore as a below average team (actual record: 13-3). Accurately predicted a great season for Indy and SD. Badly missed on the Steelers (projected high, actual 8-8) and the Seahawks (projected as best team in NFL, actual 9-7). Had CHI as easily the best defense in the league, by a wide margin. Projected New Orleans as the worst team in the league (this was the Katrina "recovery" year, when they went to the playoffs).
2007: Correctly predicted Miami's collapse, particularly on offense (pegged as the worst in the league); also correctly saw NE running away with the division and had them as the best team in the league by a wide margin. Badly missed on the NFC East and AFC North, predicting Philly and Baltimore as division champs while forecasting the Cowboys as bottom-dwellers (both predicted champs ended up as the worst in the division, while Dallas soared to a 13-3 record). Nailed the NFC North and South, predicting huge bouncebacks from Green Bay and Tampa. Also correctly saw a Jaguars improvement, but overestimated it (had them as division champs).
2008: About everything went wrong this year.
2009: Correctly saw Indy and SD as the two best teams in the AFC. Had the Jets and Bengals as below average teams (they both went to the playoffs) and saw division championships for the Giants (8-8), Seahawks (5-11) and Panthers (8-8), while missing on New Orleans' monster of a season. Incorrectly saw Arizona declining dramatically. Correctly saw an upswing for the Vikings.
2010: Correctly saw Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Indy and NE as a closely grouped bunch of the best teams in the AFC. Predicted the division championship of the Chiefs. Had Miami as a wildcard and the Jets declining. Correctly saw San Diego's regression. Correctly saw Philadelphia and Chicago bouncing back, and also had Green Bay and Atlanta as very strong teams and division champions. Missed badly on the Cardinals (8-8 division champs, actual 5-11) and predicted the Redskins as a wildcard.
Since they also predict the Pats as division champs and the Jets and Ravens as wildcards, we would end up out of the playoffs. The difference isn't that big (we're projected for 8.5 wins, BAL/NYJ for 9.5/9.6 respectively), but it would mean an 8-8 or 9-7 record, and out of playoff contention.
-- ADDENDUM --
I forgot to say this outcome is mostly related to our schedule. We're currently facing the 4th hardest schedule in the league (according to them, and their predictions, obviously). Makes it kind of hard to succeed even with a good team...
-- ADDENDUM --
For full disclosure, here's a track record of their notable hits and misses (in preseason projections):
2004: predicted a bounceback season for the NYJ (6-10 in 2003, 10-6 in 2004), as well as the meteoric rise of the Chargers (4-12 in 2003, 12-4 in 2004).
2005: predicted a NE decline in wins, but still holding on to the division. Missed badly on Miami (predicted around 5 wins, actually had 9). Had Indianapolis with the highest projected wins in the entire AFC. Missed awfully on the Eagles, forecasting around 12 wins and practically guaranteeing playoffs; conversely, had the Giants as a lousy team (the NYG won the division that year at 11-5, and Philly completed a crappy 6-10 season). Correctly saw TB improving dramatically, and Atlanta declining as sharply. Pretty much guaranteed a deep playoff run for the Seahawks, as the second best team in the NFC after the Eagles.
2006: Correctly saw a Miami downturn. Pegged Baltimore as a below average team (actual record: 13-3). Accurately predicted a great season for Indy and SD. Badly missed on the Steelers (projected high, actual 8-8) and the Seahawks (projected as best team in NFL, actual 9-7). Had CHI as easily the best defense in the league, by a wide margin. Projected New Orleans as the worst team in the league (this was the Katrina "recovery" year, when they went to the playoffs).
2007: Correctly predicted Miami's collapse, particularly on offense (pegged as the worst in the league); also correctly saw NE running away with the division and had them as the best team in the league by a wide margin. Badly missed on the NFC East and AFC North, predicting Philly and Baltimore as division champs while forecasting the Cowboys as bottom-dwellers (both predicted champs ended up as the worst in the division, while Dallas soared to a 13-3 record). Nailed the NFC North and South, predicting huge bouncebacks from Green Bay and Tampa. Also correctly saw a Jaguars improvement, but overestimated it (had them as division champs).
2008: About everything went wrong this year.
2009: Correctly saw Indy and SD as the two best teams in the AFC. Had the Jets and Bengals as below average teams (they both went to the playoffs) and saw division championships for the Giants (8-8), Seahawks (5-11) and Panthers (8-8), while missing on New Orleans' monster of a season. Incorrectly saw Arizona declining dramatically. Correctly saw an upswing for the Vikings.
2010: Correctly saw Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Indy and NE as a closely grouped bunch of the best teams in the AFC. Predicted the division championship of the Chiefs. Had Miami as a wildcard and the Jets declining. Correctly saw San Diego's regression. Correctly saw Philadelphia and Chicago bouncing back, and also had Green Bay and Atlanta as very strong teams and division champions. Missed badly on the Cardinals (8-8 division champs, actual 5-11) and predicted the Redskins as a wildcard.
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