Football Outsiders says Miami has a 45.4% chance of making the playoffs | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Football Outsiders says Miami has a 45.4% chance of making the playoffs

Well they give them 45 percent more chances than I do. I do feel good about our direction but see us having 0 chance for playoffs but if Im wrong i will be giddy.
 
That's more of a chance than Indy, NE, or SD have. Nice. A bit surprised on how low NE's chance is given they're sitting at 5-2 and only need probably 4 wins to make the playoffs.
 
I think it's that high because of our division record and the fact that we lost a game by one point.
 
12MIA13.3%1313.6%123-420.8%2-1.4%12-8.9%31


ARE we really ranked number 2 offense and 12 defense?
 
and our schedule is very easy. KC? STL? SEA? OAK? etc.
bills jets and ne we all beat except for favres BULL **** td pass.
and Den this week.
 
I'd play the No if they let me give 6/5, which would be the bookie split given that theoretical percentage.

That site is more impressive at first glance than when you break everything down. I've talked to many bettors here who experienced the same thing, and now they ignore the site. When I stick their numbers in my Excel data bases I don't come up with the same results. Projected pointspreads is a better guide to actual win likelihood down the road, than the stats based formula they use.
 
dlockz said:
Well they give them 45 percent more chances than I do. I do feel good about our direction but see us having 0 chance for playoffs but if Im wrong i will be giddy.
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you dont feel good about the direction??.. were winning games, what else do you want?
 
Awsi Dooger said:
I'd play the No if they let me give 6/5, which would be the bookie split given that theoretical percentage.

That site is more impressive at first glance than when you break everything down. I've talked to many bettors here who experienced the same thing, and now they ignore the site. When I stick their numbers in my Excel data bases I don't come up with the same results. Projected pointspreads is a better guide to actual win likelihood down the road, than the stats based formula they use.
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I can link you to the sites of contrarian bettors who use FO numbers to aid them in many picks which they post and track with great success. Your Excel data? Sorry, show me where you posted all your bets before I can take a formula you came up with seriously. No offense.
 
If we had beaten the Texans we would likely be a lock....our schedule looks good....we can beat every team on the rest of our schedule.
 
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