For what it's worth, Josh Allen stole the show at the Senior Bowl

Discussion in 'NFL Draft Forum' started by jim1, Jan 27, 2018.

  1. jim1

    jim1 Pro Bowler

    Joined:
    Apr 2006
    Messages:
    5,527
    Likes Received:
    127
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Say what you will about Josh Allen as an NFL prospect, or the merits of judging players at a glorified exhibition game - he showed Saturday at the Senior Bowl why he's a real candidate to go first overall in April's draft.

    The Wyoming alum got off to a slow start - in truth, so did fellow North squad quarterbacks Baker Mayfield and Tanner Lee - but he was golden in the third quarter before giving way to Lee in the fourth.

    Allen scored his team's first touchdown with a pinpoint throw to the back of the end zone, hitting Central Michigan's Tyler Conklin after faking an end-around handoff. He was prone to staring down receivers in college, but on this play took one step up in the pocket before firing the ball 16 yards, displaying some exquisite touch, for the score:

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nf...show-at-the-senior-bowl/ar-BBIjODx?li=BBnbfcL
     
  2. Dogbone34

    Dogbone34 cowboy surfer

    Joined:
    Apr 2007
    Messages:
    3,006
    Likes Received:
    71
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Josh Allen is definitely a candidate to go #1.

    I like Rosen and Darnold too but Allen can fire it. Looks like he can grow.

    Worth a trade up.
     
  3. jlfin

    jlfin old pro

    Joined:
    Mar 2005
    Messages:
    9,066
    Likes Received:
    461
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Sadly, I don’t believe the phins are within striking distance of the top 3. They will all be gone well before the 8th pick. Too many QB needy teams ahead of them.
     
  4. Birdmond

    Birdmond A True Fan Donator

    Joined:
    Nov 2012
    Messages:
    1,711
    Likes Received:
    293
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Allen’s performance in the game and Mayfield’s performance in practice are both great for Miami. A potentially great player will be available at 11.
     
    Anvil35 likes this.
  5. Blake the great

    Blake the great A True Fan

    Joined:
    Jan 2011
    Messages:
    1,388
    Likes Received:
    187
    Trophy Points:
    63
    I thought Kyle Lauletta stole the show. Allen looked good but Lauletta stood out to me more.

    It's not like all eyes weren't already on josh allen anyways. So good for the kid from Richmond.
     
  6. rent this space

    rent this space Starter Finheaven VIP

    Joined:
    Apr 2007
    Messages:
    5,920
    Likes Received:
    697
    Trophy Points:
    113
    he didn't seem all that inaccurate to me, maybe a little slow on the trigger at times but I came away impressed
     
  7. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

    Joined:
    May 2002
    Messages:
    49,471
    Likes Received:
    1,566
    Trophy Points:
    113
    I liked how Kyle Lauletta looked in the Senior Bowl but if you think that he "stood out more" than Josh Allen then I would have to question what really stands out to you about a quarterback prospect. Talent should always stand out to you more than results. You know that phrase, success has many fathers but failure is an orphan? I would apply it conceptually here and say that results have many fathers but talent has just one. Nothing against Lauletta.
     
    fininpsl likes this.
  8. nick1

    nick1 I am Groot Moderator Finheaven VIP Donator

    Joined:
    Jan 2004
    Messages:
    23,436
    Likes Received:
    2,760
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Consistency is more important then potential. Lauletta was consistent, Allen was not. Allen looked lost in the first. Allen isn't very refined as a QB and has a big bust possibility. Be wary
     
    Michael Scott and RVAPhinFan13 like this.
  9. FSU Truth

    FSU Truth Taggart is my Homeboy Finheaven VIP

    Joined:
    Oct 2013
    Messages:
    10,388
    Likes Received:
    2,140
    Trophy Points:
    113
    The Browns will take Allen and will be picking a QB again in 4 years...Accuracy is the most important trait you want in a QB and Allen is not accurate.
     
  10. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

    Joined:
    May 2002
    Messages:
    49,471
    Likes Received:
    1,566
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Consistency?? LOL what?

    Kyle Lauletta had 4 incomplete passes on 12 attempts.

    Josh Allen had 4 incomplete passes on 13 attempts.

    Consistency???

    People just making sh-t up as they go along.
     
    ToddPhin likes this.
  11. nick1

    nick1 I am Groot Moderator Finheaven VIP Donator

    Joined:
    Jan 2004
    Messages:
    23,436
    Likes Received:
    2,760
    Trophy Points:
    113
    If you watch the game and not the stat box you will see what i mean...

    I know you like Allen but it's ok to criticize him a little
     
  12. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

    Joined:
    May 2002
    Messages:
    49,471
    Likes Received:
    1,566
    Trophy Points:
    113
    I did watch the game, and no I do not know what you mean. Quite frankly you just used the wrong word. Consistency is by definition a measure of efficient accumulation, a statistical concept. To sit here and say that the reason the guy who went 8 of 12 was better than the guy who went 9 of 13 is "consistency" is silly, and misguided.

    If you want to apply "consistency" to their careers, by all means. Fully appropriate.

    I'm not against criticisms of Josh Allen. Just the silly ones.
     
  13. FSU Truth

    FSU Truth Taggart is my Homeboy Finheaven VIP

    Joined:
    Oct 2013
    Messages:
    10,388
    Likes Received:
    2,140
    Trophy Points:
    113
    With all this talk about Allen's arm talent, I don't think it touches Darnold's...granted Darnold shouldn't make it past the first pick...still Darnold is on his own level and everyone else is jockeying for position under him.
     
  14. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

    Joined:
    May 2002
    Messages:
    49,471
    Likes Received:
    1,566
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Depends on what you mean by arm talent. Most people mean it as a combination of spin and velocity, distance range, ability to throw from different platforms and/or on the run.

    If that's the way you mean it, then no Sam Darnold's arm talent is not above Allen's. Josh Allen's arm talent is Looney Tunes.

    If arm talent is more about accuracy to you, YMMV.
     
    ToddPhin likes this.
  15. FSU Truth

    FSU Truth Taggart is my Homeboy Finheaven VIP

    Joined:
    Oct 2013
    Messages:
    10,388
    Likes Received:
    2,140
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Well consider one matters more than the other, obviously I mean the ability to throw the ball to a specific spot...what good would a pitcher be is he threw the ball 100 MPH but had a hard time keeping it in the strike zone.

    Allen hype train is odd...Jeff George...
     
  16. Blake the great

    Blake the great A True Fan

    Joined:
    Jan 2011
    Messages:
    1,388
    Likes Received:
    187
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Josh Allen definitely looked great and obviously stood out with his arm. No debating that, amazing arm talent.

    But that was never in question, so most of us had high expectations for him and he met those expectations and showed good accuracy.

    But I never heard of the kid from Richmond, thought he showed good poise and good accuracy. He stole the show for me because of this.

    So for me, it was really about expectations and performance.
     
    ckparrothead likes this.
  17. Michigan Mike

    Michigan Mike FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP Donator

    Joined:
    Jun 2004
    Messages:
    540
    Likes Received:
    234
    Trophy Points:
    43
    I just can't get past the Joey Harrington comparison with Josh Allen. Their college stats and hype are way too similar for my liking. Sure they both showed some brilliance but stats don't lie.

    Career Passing Stats NCAA/NFL
    Joey Harrington
    Completion % 55.2 / 56.1
    TD/INT Ratio 59/23 / 79/85
    Yards/Attempt 7.4 / 5.8

    Josh Allen
    Completion % 56.2
    TD/INT Ratio 44/21
    Yards/Attempt 7.8
     
  18. TedSlimmJr

    TedSlimmJr Hartselle Tigers (15-0) 5-A State Champ

    Joined:
    Jul 2008
    Messages:
    10,068
    Likes Received:
    747
    Trophy Points:
    113

    I think that's a little bit of the issue here, as I've said many times. Evaluating stats is not evaluating quarterbacks. Let's be clear here...they're two completely different things.

    You can compare Joey Harrington's college stats against the college stats of dozens of highly successful NFL quarterbacks that had similar college stats. In other words, what good did that do?

    You can compare the college stats of pro bowl and HOF NFL quarterbacks with college stats with hundreds of quarterbacks who had very similar college stats that simply didn't turn out to be successful pros. Again, what good did it do?

    If anybody looks at Josh Allen and the first thing that pops into their head is Joey Harrington, then that's just what they see. We see what we see. Evaluating human beings at something they're good at is an art for sure. There is no scientific method to do it and be accurate. It's an art form.

    Some people can do it, some can't. That's why it's an art. Just like some people can just draw incredible art work, and some can't.

    But the main thing to keep in mind when watching players and evaluating them...especially young quarterbacks, is that what you see now isn't necessarily what they're going to be.

    Anybody can watch a game or look at stats and say well that QB had a bad game...or that QB isn't any good. Or that QB had a good game or that one looked good. It changes depending on what game you watched or what stats you're looking at.

    Anybody can do that.

    The hard part is projecting how a kid's skills translate. Is he going to be good 5 years from now or not? If so, how much better is he going to be 5 years from now? Accurately gauging that chasm of differential.

    Unfortunately, you can't coach and develope the stats he brings. All you can coach and develope are the skills he brings. The stats stay in college for the record books. Good stats or bad stats...they don't come with him.
     
  19. HarryBagpipe

    HarryBagpipe Daddybutter Super Donator

    Joined:
    Apr 2007
    Messages:
    6,845
    Likes Received:
    298
    Trophy Points:
    83
    It seems Jeff George is one of the most misremembered qbs. Did he live up to his hype and being the overall number one pick? No. But he did have a 12 year nfl career including some pretty good years. He led the league in yards was in the top 5 in qb rating and tds thrown. Even won in the playoffs.

    He wasn’t Ryan leaf or Jamarcus Russell. I still think he had the best arm I’ve ever seen. He could throw the ball as hard and as far as farve and as effortless and with a release as quick as Marino’s.

    He was just a prima Donna and had a me first attitude
     
    Tailgun, fininpsl and TedSlimmJr like this.
  20. TedSlimmJr

    TedSlimmJr Hartselle Tigers (15-0) 5-A State Champ

    Joined:
    Jul 2008
    Messages:
    10,068
    Likes Received:
    747
    Trophy Points:
    113

    No question Jeff George is one of the most misremembered quarterbacks around here. There were years he looked like the best QB in the NFL. Just completely uncoachable. That was his demise.

    I can say with complete confidence George had the biggest arm I've ever seen. Still to this day.

    Years ago I used to put up a video clip of George throwing a bomb to the fastest guy in the NFL at the time (James Jett) dead into a 30 mph at the Meadowlands. Perfect.

    It was one of the most impressive throws ever made in the NFL.
     
    dahlmarino and HarryBagpipe like this.
  21. HarryBagpipe

    HarryBagpipe Daddybutter Super Donator

    Joined:
    Apr 2007
    Messages:
    6,845
    Likes Received:
    298
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Yep. He looked like an all pro in minny when he lead his team to the playoffs and put up 37 against the super bowl champ rams in a loss. If his team didn’t run into that juggernaut, it’s not a stretch to say he would of won a super bowl. He looked that good. Unfortuantely , like you said, he was uncoachable.
     
  22. FSU Truth

    FSU Truth Taggart is my Homeboy Finheaven VIP

    Joined:
    Oct 2013
    Messages:
    10,388
    Likes Received:
    2,140
    Trophy Points:
    113
    I brought him up as someone who had insane arm talent but also had an issue with accuracy. I think he ended up only starting a few season but served really well as a backup. The point I was making is that it is more than just arm talent. From what I remember he was also a player who lacked intellect. Grated that lack of intellect does not seem to apply to Allen, but history tells us that a player who was not accurate in college, tends to not be in the NFL. The team that takes Allen is going to have to give him time to learn before putting him out there...so much needs to be fixed and I doubt the team that takes him will do it properly leading him to potentially have a below average career.

    Jeff George found success for a few years about 5 years into his career, by that time he was more of a band-aid fix for a team as opposed to one you can build around.
     
  23. hoops

    hoops exited stage left Hammered

    Joined:
    Jul 2008
    Messages:
    54,288
    Likes Received:
    4,014
    Trophy Points:
    113
    That kids a lock to go top 6 and they will all line up to get a chance to speed up his foot work and say they can fix his consistency issues.

    Hell he’s a plus athlete too.

    A absolute lock. If I’m a team that needs a qb hell yeah I’m taking a chance on that
     
    Last edited: Jan 29, 2018
    rickd13 and Birdmond like this.
  24. Jerrysanders

    Jerrysanders FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

    Joined:
    Oct 2015
    Messages:
    1,712
    Likes Received:
    418
    Trophy Points:
    83

    Actually majority of the successful qbs put up above average stats in college, Other than Brett Favre QBs with this low a completion pct in college never work out in the NFL.
     
  25. nick1

    nick1 I am Groot Moderator Finheaven VIP Donator

    Joined:
    Jan 2004
    Messages:
    23,436
    Likes Received:
    2,760
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Wasnt Tom Brady a nobody in college? That's only 1 case of course
     
  26. FSU Truth

    FSU Truth Taggart is my Homeboy Finheaven VIP

    Joined:
    Oct 2013
    Messages:
    10,388
    Likes Received:
    2,140
    Trophy Points:
    113
    There is a reason he dropped to the round he did.

    Also, I think with any argument you can find anomalies...players that go against the status quo, but I think if you look at trends over a long period of time you will find that most really successful QBs were so in college.

    Here is a nice article on QBs and evaluations...

    https://www.theringer.com/2017/4/5/...deshaun-watson-mitchell-trubisky-6e0d45a52fa5

    The author of the article mentions that neither list mentions "arm strength"...They wanted players who were successful and productive. I am not saying that this is the authority on what you should look for in a QB, but I think the idea that you want someone who has experience leading a team, did so well, and have the number to back it up, should outweigh "potential".
     
    nick1 likes this.
  27. TedSlimmJr

    TedSlimmJr Hartselle Tigers (15-0) 5-A State Champ

    Joined:
    Jul 2008
    Messages:
    10,068
    Likes Received:
    747
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Wrong.
     
  28. TedSlimmJr

    TedSlimmJr Hartselle Tigers (15-0) 5-A State Champ

    Joined:
    Jul 2008
    Messages:
    10,068
    Likes Received:
    747
    Trophy Points:
    113
    He didn't say anything about being a nobody. He's talking about stats.

    Tom Brady wasn't a nobody in college. The problem was Lloyd Carr letting Drew Henson go dig a hole for Michigan and then turn around and ask Brady to go in there and dig em out.

    Watch Brady in the 2000 Orange Bowl against Alabama. Shaun Alexander was running all over Michigan...Brady led Michigan back from a 14 point deficit...twice.

    He was a nobody to NFL fans. Hell, most of these kids are a nobody to NFL fans because they don't watch college football. Although they pretend they do when draft time rolls around. Brady wasn't a nobody if you watched college football.
     
    BobDole, CedarPhin and nick1 like this.
  29. TedSlimmJr

    TedSlimmJr Hartselle Tigers (15-0) 5-A State Champ

    Joined:
    Jul 2008
    Messages:
    10,068
    Likes Received:
    747
    Trophy Points:
    113

    It's all still just potential no matter what you're focusing on. Whether it's wins, stats or arm strength.

    The key is knowing when to emphasize one of em and when to ignore one of em. What does your gut tell you...
     
    rickd13 likes this.
  30. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

    Joined:
    May 2002
    Messages:
    49,471
    Likes Received:
    1,566
    Trophy Points:
    113
    The stat thing bothers me. It's so bass ackward. People THINK it's statistical. It's not. It's just not valid on a scientific basis.

    People look at a group of quarterbacks they deem successful, often weeding out some quarterbacks that are/were just as successful, because they don't quite fit the narrative. What they're left with is very often a SMALL sample pool, from which they start drawing up statistical trends. Then they make statements like "no QB that has succeeded ever looked like X" which is a completely daft approach to drawing conclusions about statistical trends and correlations.

    It's not academically valid, that's for damn sure. It's guys who stayed at a Holiday Inn Express trying to sound smart and make their arguments valid without having a god damn clue what they're trying to do.

    You know what, if you really want to do this, go plot correlations between all college quarterbacks, relating their completion percentages, to NFL production. Then show me the p-values. I guarantee, absolutely guarantee, that you will find a p-value that carries with it no assumption of a relationship, whatsoever.
     
    TedSlimmJr likes this.
  31. FSU Truth

    FSU Truth Taggart is my Homeboy Finheaven VIP

    Joined:
    Oct 2013
    Messages:
    10,388
    Likes Received:
    2,140
    Trophy Points:
    113
    The amount of irony in this post could fill a small stadium...
     
  32. TedSlimmJr

    TedSlimmJr Hartselle Tigers (15-0) 5-A State Champ

    Joined:
    Jul 2008
    Messages:
    10,068
    Likes Received:
    747
    Trophy Points:
    113
    QB-A
    62.5% -- 7.2 YPA -- 59 TD's -- 23 INT's

    QB-B
    59.6% -- 7.1 YPA -- 27 TD's -- 24 INT's

    If you're evaluating college stats, which one is clearly going to be the better pro?






    QB-A
    59.9% -- 6.9 YPA -- 56 TD's -- 37 INT's

    QB-B
    70.4% -- 9.0 YPA -- 131 TD's -- 42 INT's

    QB-C
    65.7% -- 9.2 YPA -- 65 TD's -- 22 INT's

    One quarterback clearly doesn't belong with the other two based on college stats.






    QB-A
    67.1% -- 8.7 YPA -- 78 TD's -- 17 INT's

    QB-B
    57.2% -- 8.1 YPA -- 44 TD's -- 20 INT's

    Which one are you eliminating based on college completion percentage and stats?



    It should be pretty easy to determine which QB's are going to be better based on the college stats. You can do this stuff all day...
     
  33. Awsi Dooger

    Awsi Dooger A True Fan

    Joined:
    Feb 2005
    Messages:
    8,064
    Likes Received:
    567
    Trophy Points:
    113
    That game was prototype Josh Allen. He looked scared in the first half and dominant in the second half.

    He's going to thrill and frustrate whatever fan base ends up with him, and often on consecutive possessions.

    The touch is definitely improving on midrange throws, especially compared to what he was capable of during 2016. Give Allen a one-on-one downfield situation and he can vary the pace wonderfully. He still struggles with ideal variance in traffic.

    ***

    Low completion percentage is a massive indicator. Far more often than not. It's silly to pretend otherwise. There have been countless related studies and always with the same conclusion. I've seen it dating 20 years or more. I've seen Football Outsiders do it, some college professor do it, and so forth. Earlier I remember I used to reference the criteria on that KDWN radio program in Las Vegas. It was easy to reject certain guys who were simply inaccurate.

    Eventually the Parcells type formula came along and tried to combine multiple factors, including games started and winning percentage. I like the basic concept but it was obvious from the outset that it was trying to catch everybody. Juggle the criteria to get rid of a few annoying back fitted failures. I know how that works because I've done it with wagering formulas. Eventually you are throwing in things that aren't relevant or predictive, but it simply feels better because once you've screwed the new variable in place suddenly your connect percentage vaults 10% or more. The election guy Allan Lichtman does the same thing. Then he juggles from cycle to cycle, always rationalizing that the electoral result was the proper evaluation of his formula in one instance, but the popular vote the proper measure in another cycle. Comical.

    The problem with player evaluation is nobody likes to be wrong, especially in a high profile situation. I am not happy that Sons of Shula was banned. I didn't agree with him often, other than politics, but he is a sharp guy. I don't know what happened here. But I do remember when he tried to taunt me with my support of Johnny Manziel. Long after the fact. I thought it was hilarious when he tried to mock a sports bettor for being wrong about something, when being wrong 40% of the time is a huge win in that arena. I was wrong then and I'll be wrong many times in this draft and subsequently.

    That being said, I love the numerical helpers that aid in being correct more often than not, and certainly benefit me when I no longer chose to spend much time on evaluation. Here's another very recent study on the significance of completion percentage toward NFL success:



    If I had to make a quick summary of that link, which points to 58.5% as the cutoff point, I'd say it's a waste of time to look at lesser prospects who fail to meet the standard.

    Now, with highly rated guys then it's more of a sticky situation. Not many are statistical rejects. Obviously there is a conflict between raw ability level and the stats, if a player is rated that high.

    I'll default to my original comparison of Josh Allen as a much bigger and stronger armed Jake Plummer. That was the first thing that jumped out at me when I watched him against Boise State and San Diego State within 2016. Allen is surprisingly smooth and agile for a quarterback of that size. He can run to buy time in the pocket and also to gain ground. He seems like a smart guy out there. But for whatever reason the totality is that mid 50s completion percentage, which is the same range that Jake Plummer always had, in each of his four seasons at Arizona State.

    BTW, I'm a USC guy but there's no comparison between Allen's arm and Darnold's, although Darnold is certainly strong enough.

    * Also, when I pasted that link I didn't realize the entire article would show up. Sorry about that. I meant for it to be a click and view.
     
  34. nick1

    nick1 I am Groot Moderator Finheaven VIP Donator

    Joined:
    Jan 2004
    Messages:
    23,436
    Likes Received:
    2,760
    Trophy Points:
    113
    That's what i meant by inconsistent. He looked like a completely different player from half to half.
     
  35. TedSlimmJr

    TedSlimmJr Hartselle Tigers (15-0) 5-A State Champ

    Joined:
    Jul 2008
    Messages:
    10,068
    Likes Received:
    747
    Trophy Points:
    113
    I've been doing this for a long time too. If you choose to emphasize statistics, mainly completion percentage...and try to draw some sort of relevant conclusion from them (you can't) then you have to know enough to be aware of both sides of the coin...

    The bigger red flag when evaluating quarterbacks and projecting them to the next level is an absurdly HIGH completion percentage. As opposed to one below 58.5%.

    If a QB is completing 70% of their passes in college, it's more of a red flag than a completion percentage below 58.5%. The bust percentage is even more off the charts. Mainly due to the style of offense and difficulty of the throws.

    A study like the one posted here can be good for big picture snapshot, but it's not what the draft is about. It attempts to provide some causation vs. correlation relationship, but fails.

    The draft is about evaluating specific quarterbacks in a given class against their peers in that same class, choosing the right one for your team, and at a very specific price.

    Conversely, wins are also an over emphasized aspect. Nobody won more in college than David Greene. He left Georgia the winningest quarterback in NCAA history. Was a 3rd round pick by Seattle and never started a game in the NFL.

    The bottom line is evaluation is an art. You have to know what noise to block out and when it's appropriate to do so.
     
    rickd13 likes this.
  36. AJ Duhe

    AJ Duhe FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP Donator

    Joined:
    Dec 2004
    Messages:
    937
    Likes Received:
    289
    Trophy Points:
    63
    I watched all the Senior Bowl coverage and the game. When looking at the QBs, Josh Allen could do things that no other QB in this draft could do. I look at his completion percentage in his Junior and Senior years, 56%, and it just brings up questions.

    I do think you have to look at the whole picture and not just his stats. I also wouldn't eliminate a QB based solely on mechanical quirks or flaws. Phillip Rivers always had an awkward delivery, but his ball placement and anticipation were good coming out of college. Tom Brady has made a number of mechanical adjustments since coming into the league. I think Allen's pro day will be telling. is there an improvement there that improves his consistency and thus accuracy? This isn't a Tebow rebuild job.
     
  37. Awsi Dooger

    Awsi Dooger A True Fan

    Joined:
    Feb 2005
    Messages:
    8,064
    Likes Received:
    567
    Trophy Points:
    113
    The first time I saw Josh Allen was the game at Nebraska very early in the 2016 season. I saw ckparrothead post on the other forum that he got a jump on everybody because he watched Allen from November 2016. Well, I'm admittedly not scouting players but via wagering on so many games I naturally come across newcomer players and pay attention.

    That early 2016 game interested me because a few years earlier Wyoming traveled to Nebraska and very nearly upset the Cornhuskers as 30 point underdog. I watched that game without a wager, while rooting for the Cowboys to pull it out on the final possession. Didn't happen. Now a few years later they are strangely making the same trip, probably for a payday. I had some system that triggered a bet on Nebraska -26. While watching the game it was immediately apparent that this Wyoming quarterback is far superior athletically to the journeyman type from the near upset several years earlier. But gad does he make plenty of big mistakes. Allen threw many interceptions that helped my cause. I covered the bet although it was not particularly satisfying because so much of the yardage was through the air and not on the ground. Nebraska should have been able to manhandle Wyoming physically.

    Anyway, I took note of the new Wyoming quarterback. I really like that Mountain West conference, partially because of how smart Boise State is and recently how smart and well coached San Diego State is.

    Later in the season I was shocked while watching Wyoming upset Boise State as 13.5 point home underdog. Then likewise a few weeks later hosting San Diego State as 9.5 point home underdog. Nobody beats both of those teams in the same season in that conference, let alone a pushover roster like Wyoming. By that point it was obvious Allen was a serious pro prospect. The announcers were touting it. He nearly upset San Diego State again in the conference championship game. Somewhere in those flock of games I realized that Allen reminded me of a bigger stronger Jake Plummer.

    But there's always something frustrating about his game. The bowl game against BYU was in some type of weird weather. Maybe wind. I forget. Low scoring. Allen had a chance to pull out an improbable late upset other than an unbelievably stupid late interception deep in BYU territory that seemed like it was intended for the defender.

    Sometimes I post comments on the Seahawks blog run by Rob Staton. Excellent draft guy. I agree with his perspective more often than not. Early in 2017 he was very down and dismissive of Josh Allen. He specifically focused on the Oregon game and how pathetic Allen was, saying Carson Wentz on a lesser team would look good in games at Iowa, etc. I replied that hey, Josh Allen lost his offensive playmates from 2016. Let's not overlook that. He's out there on a horrendous roster with newcomer skill position guys. Eventually Staton came around. Now he projects Allen first to Cleveland.

    The stuff is well known. I guess that's what I'm saying. I'm not going to ignore the reasons to boost Allen's stock nor the reasons to doubt him. I've gone back and forth, somewhat like with Jared Goff a couple of years ago. Allen is significantly more athletic than Goff and with a superior throwing motion. At his best he also has better touch than Goff. But Jared Goff had the more ideal stepladder. Sorry I never set aside that type of thing in deference to pure tape stuff. I remember when USC tried to recruit Goff in the late going. He had a buzz throughout the Pac 12, although it didn't seem to spread nationally. Goff was strong enough at a major college to depart after three years. Meanwhile Josh Allen goes off to a junior college and then winds up at a college football wasteland completing 56%.

    I would be betraying plenty of my base beliefs if I jumped in fully on Josh Allen.

    However, if somehow he's still sitting there at #11 heck yes I'm rooting for that name.
     
    ckparrothead likes this.
  38. fininpsl

    fininpsl A True Fan Donator

    Joined:
    Apr 2012
    Messages:
    3,181
    Likes Received:
    233
    Trophy Points:
    63
    221 for 378, 58.5%, 2432 yards 6.4 ypa, 17 TDs, 23 INTs the QBs senior year. It looks like he's had an undraftable QBs senior season. Who is he??? Stats simply don't tell the whole story. I've not heard it mentioned, but Allen has impressed me in the few interviews I've seen of him. The kid has undeniable physical ability. IMHO with a kid that has this kind of God given talent, the evaluation of his character and intelligence is more important than over-analyzing his stats.
     
    Last edited: Jan 31, 2018
  39. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

    Joined:
    May 2002
    Messages:
    49,471
    Likes Received:
    1,566
    Trophy Points:
    113
    That Nebraska game is the danger with Josh Allen, because it wasn't just the Nebraska game. It was also the Iowa game. You can look at the common underlying factors and say both were P5 teams, but I don't think that was it. I think it was the fact he was on the road in front of a crowd of 90,000 screaming Nebraska fans, and then on the road in front of a crowd of 65,000 Iowa fans. The kid from a farm twenty minutes outside Firebaugh, a town of like 20,000 people, who played in front of JUCO crowds, can't seem to handle the biggest stages. You pointed it out, he struggled in that BYU bowl game as well. Had a bad first half, then he started to get HIS thing going in the second half (in 2016 he was a comeback king), but like you said he throws the dumb pick to Kai Nacua, breaking out of the pocket and trying to do too much.

    I thought it worked on a broader scale too. After the 2016 season, he was discovered. He begins talking to NFL teams, thinking about coming out early. The media catches on and he becomes a darling. He heads into the season bright eyed and bushy tailed, looking like a million bucks. Or thirty million bucks, if you will. So he's heading into a year that will involve major scrutiny, lots of interviews and television specials, etc...and he struggles pretty much the entire year. Trust me I know all the players he lost and just how awful his team was, no shortage of excuses for struggling. But *he* also struggled, not just his offense or his teammates. And by the end of the year the dude looks unkempt, like a college kid finishing three term papers and about to break. Now he's doing interviews where he sounds outright relieved if he doesn't have to start for NFL teams as a rookie, you know so that he can go house shopping, get his marketing agency set up, all the important stuff without having that pesky football thing to worry about.

    The kid hasn't quite found the right head space to deal with external pressure and influences. And that's my biggest issue with him.
     
  40. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

    Joined:
    May 2002
    Messages:
    49,471
    Likes Received:
    1,566
    Trophy Points:
    113
    As for the Oregon game, it's surprising a guy would isolate that one to torch him. I thought he actually played alright in that game. The stats were awful, for sure. The Wyoming offense itself was overwhelmed in that game, for sure. But he played within the structure of the offense, even made a few plays on his own. His receivers as I recall couldn't catch a cold, or get open. He had no ground game preventing him from constantly being in bad down and distance.

    The Iowa game, to me, was much worse. He only lasted about one quarter of that game before seemingly throwing aside the entire structure of the offense and falling into some of his worst habits.
     

Share This Page