Future picks and why you should keep them...

[NBP81]

I'll preface this by saying that I will not even talk about the Fins in this post. My goal is to sow you how detrimental it is to be on the wrong side of the bargain when it involves futur picks. While I could probably write a 5 page article on this and GTO (game theory optimal), I'll keep it short and sweet and only post the beginning of the proccess where we evaluate the extreme opposites...

Scenario: we're looking at a two year window where one team values present picks and is going all in on this season, and the other team values next years draft and is going all in accordingly.

Team A-> this year
Team B-> next year

Parameters:
Team A will do every thing in its power to aquire more picks in this draft by trading next years draft pick at a discount of one round... ie. 2nd round next year for 3rd round this year...
Team B will do the opposite and give away all their draft picks this year except their 1st round pick at an inflated price of one round ie. 2nd round this year for a 1st round next year.

Results: After 2 years of doing this this is what both teams end up with in terms of draft picks...

Team A: 1st round->1... 2nd round-> 2... 3rd round-> 2... 4th round-> 2
Team B: 1st round->3...2nd round->2...3rd round-> 2...4th round-> 2

Now Im aware that no team is going to use either strategy to a tee because its simply not plausible with a bunch of other factors to consider.... but it clearly shows, IMO, that if you're going to be involved in futur picks trades, you're much better off being the one getting the futur picks. And the fact that 95% of the NFL hasnt caught on to that and still hang on to the old value charts is quite baffling...

Edit: Adding more years only solidifies my point and leaves team A with with only 6th and 7th rounders where its no more possible to gain picks from our parameters, while team B prospers with day 1 and day 2 picks.... The NFLs strategy as we speak is heavily leaning towards Team A s strategy... FWIW

 

[fishfanmiami]

The Pats use to trade for future picks often. Of course it helps if your team is solid to start with and you don't need lots of rookies that you are hoping will end up as immediate starters like us for instance.

 

[NBP81]

The Pats use to trade for future picks often. Of course it helps if your team is solid to start with and you don't need lots of rookies that you are hoping will end up as immediate starters like us for instance.

Yup! Then at least standing pat would make alot of sense...IMO
Edit: Im not saying we should go all out tanking mode and trade our draft, but we are clearly not in position to trade future picks... Its the opposite as teams going big in FA because they are missing ONE piece where it justifies the overpayment...

 

[where's th'fish]

I see three possible reasons for this. One, the people who make the picks are trying to keep their jobs and they'll worry about next year if they're there to see it. Two, they get so caught in the present they undervalue the future. This happens to a lot of us in daily life, actually, so it doesn't surprise me that much. Three, they overvalue their scouting. They fall in love with a player and they lose their objectivity. It's no different than falling in love with another person, you can't see how it could possibly go wrong!

 

[hoops]

Heres what i know...i got nothing against caroo in fact hes the most interesting day 2 pick this team made to me...but for a top 75 grade talent wr you gave up a 2017 3rd a 2017 4th and a 2016 6th

Im not sure why when its top 75 you would be hell bent on it at the tail end of day 2 but either way given the grade unless miamis grade was fubarred in house you gave up too much

and the odds of it ever passing up parker and landry on the depth chart are nil so having said that where is the steal like value you peed your pants to go get value there?

 

[fininpsl]

Heres what i know...i got nothing against caroo in fact hes the most interesting day 2 pick this team made to me...but for a top 75 grade talent wr you gave up a 2017 3rd a 2017 4th and a 2016 6th

Im not sure why when its top 75 you would be hell bent on it at the tail end of day 2 but either way given the grade unless miamis grade was fubarred in house you gave up too much

and the odds of it ever passing up parker and landry on the depth chart are nil so having said that where is the steal like value you peed your pants to go get value there?

I realize that using the trade value chart is fuzzy math at best, but when you add up what Miami gave up to get Carroo by the chart it only amounts to a pick between 60 and 75 depending on where we ultimately end of falling in the draft order next year. The sixth we gave up was valued at 17 points, the fourth should end up being the comp pick which will be worth about 40 points, and the 3rd will be worth anywhere from 240 to 170 points depending on our 2016 record. That means we traded between 297 points in value (comes up as pick 60) to 227 points in value (comes up as pick 72) to nab Carroo. If he really is a top 75 player, and the value chart is accurate (I realize this isn't necessarily), then we got him for fair value.

 

[hoops]

I realize that using the trade value chart is fuzzy math at best, but when you add up what Miami gave up to get Carroo by the chart it only amounts to a pick between 60 and 75 depending on where we ultimately end of falling in the draft order next year. The sixth we gave up was valued at 17 points, the fourth should end up being the comp pick which will be worth about 40 points, and the 3rd will be worth anywhere from 240 to 170 points depending on our 2016 record. That means we traded between 297 points in value (comes up as pick 60) to 227 points in value (comes up as pick 72) to nab Carroo. If he really is a top 75 player, and the value chart is accurate (I realize this isn't necessarily), then we got him for fair value.

I realized someone would reference this and it's not that we got bad value its that we traded future assets for a top 75 grade player...why? if I'm gonna make that kind of trade and pay future assets and maybe pay higher ones even I need to be getting something that on my board stacks up as a top 50 value to get back into the tail end of round 3...otherwise what's the point? and yes I also know that when you trade future assets in any round to get into that round you have to sweeten the pot which the 6th rounder probably was the closer

maybe caroo was a top 50 grade on miamis board...I see it as an overdraft if so

 

[Sons Of Shula]

I realize that using the trade value chart is fuzzy math at best, but when you add up what Miami gave up to get Carroo by the chart it only amounts to a pick between 60 and 75 depending on where we ultimately end of falling in the draft order next year. The sixth we gave up was valued at 17 points, the fourth should end up being the comp pick which will be worth about 40 points, and the 3rd will be worth anywhere from 240 to 170 points depending on our 2016 record. That means we traded between 297 points in value (comes up as pick 60) to 227 points in value (comes up as pick 72) to nab Carroo. If he really is a top 75 player, and the value chart is accurate (I realize this isn't necessarily), then we got him for fair value.

Peter King when asked his thoughts the Dolphins early round draft picks.

Peter King ‏@SI_PeterKing

Caroo better be good. They paid a boatload for him.

 

[fininpsl]

I realized someone would reference this and it's not that we got bad value its that we traded future assets for a top 75 grade player...why? if I'm gonna make that kind of trade and pay future assets and maybe pay higher ones even I need to be getting something that on my board stacks up as a top 50 value to get back into the tail end of round 3...otherwise what's the point? and yes I also know that when you trade future assets in any round to get into that round you have to sweeten the pot which the 6th rounder probably was the closer

maybe caroo was a top 50 grade on miamis board...I see it as an overdraft if so

Totally respect that. I think that's what happened. They were never taking a WR with either the 1st or 2nd round picks. Too much need elsewhere. But it's obvious they really valued Carroo, and by the time they addressed their RB need at the top of the 3rd, needs were out the window, and Carroo had fallen far enough that for them he was too much value to ignore. Doesn't mean they are right, but i see their logic. And if he ends up as a legit #2 WR he would have been worth a #60 pick. Though we traded future assets, we also no longer have a future liability at WR if he works out. So like always what really matters is that their eval on Carroo is good.

 

[cuzinvinny]

Heres what i know...i got nothing against caroo in fact hes the most interesting day 2 pick this team made to me...but for a top 75 grade talent wr you gave up a 2017 3rd a 2017 4th and a 2016 6th

Im not sure why when its top 75 you would be hell bent on it at the tail end of day 2 but either way given the grade unless miamis grade was fubarred in house you gave up too much

and the odds of it ever passing up parker and landry on the depth chart are nil so having said that where is the steal like value you peed your pants to go get value there?

First of all its kind of funny making the evaluation of what Carroo worth is without him ever getting on the field yet. It almost all depends on how good he ends up. I'm glad to see them getting players they deem targets and ya if they give a little to much I can live with it, instead of past FO waiting for the rd they think and missing out on their primary picks way to many times and having to have to settle for even more of a gamble... But talking about Carroo the third we gave up was for an additional 3rd round This year and giving them a 3rd a year later, which usually one must give up a higher pick for the following year as I'm sure you know.

Still not sure about the 4th, which if Carroo is all that he could be probably replacing Stills next season, I have no problem and like the pick, also the 4th could be a comp, which actually makes that a 5th rd pick....
To me the #1 thing is to get the quality player you want, and yes not also giving up the farm but maybe just a field.....

 

[JFoxx]

Regardless of what the Phins did or didn't do in the draft, the OP's point (and well made) is that teams that seem to mortgage future drafts for this year, end up on the losing end of that equation 9 times out of 10. The reason teams do this is to make that big splash or secure their "today" because they might not be around next year. Teams where the FO doesn't have to worry about that (like NE) make moves back and for future picks all the time, do so because they don't have to worry about their jobs and are thinking long-term for the team. This is why teams that are good, stay good for long periods of time. And teams that have constant turnover and turmoil, stay that way for so long. Where do you think we have fit in those two scenarios the last 10-15 years?

 

[fininpsl]

Peter King when asked his thoughts the Dolphins early round draft picks.

They paid the equivalent of and end of the 2nd top of the 3rd round pick. Is that really a boatload??? I wish they had taken him at 73 rather than Drake, and saved the picks, but I think the idea that they gave up SOOO much to get him is overstated. Not totally false, just overstated.

 

[hoops]

Totally respect that. I think that's what happened. They were never taking a WR with either the 1st or 2nd round picks. Too much need elsewhere. But it's obvious they really valued Carroo, and by the time they addressed their RB need at the top of the 3rd, needs were out the window, and Carroo had fallen far enough that for them he was too much value to ignore. Doesn't mean they are right, but i see their logic. And if he ends up as a legit #2 WR he would have been worth a #60 pick. Though we traded future assets, we also no longer have a future liability at WR if he works out. So like always what really matters is that their eval on Carroo is good.

if they were looking for a #2 wr the trade up should have been for Michael Thomas from #73...that would have fit the need and maybe in 12 personnel put landry where he should be on the bench...a wr with small catch radius like caroo isn't gonna do that...although I will say caroo has more going for him on the boundary than Jarvis landry does cause he's got more short area burst to separate...

is that gonna sway gase into playing caroo over landry in those packages I seriously doubt it

---------- Post added at 10:20 AM ---------- Previous post was at 10:18 AM ----------

They paid the equivalent of and end of the 2nd top of the 3rd round pick. Is that really a boatload??? I wish they had taken him at 73 rather than Drake, and saved the picks, but I think the idea that they gave up SOOO much to get him is overstated. Not totally false, just overstated.

yep a caroo pick at 73 would have made a ton more sense in terms of value and retaining future assets

 

[NBP81]

Regardless of what the Phins did or didn't do in the draft, the OP's point (and well made) is that teams that seem to mortgage future drafts for this year, end up on the losing end of that equation 9 times out of 10. The reason teams do this is to make that big splash or secure their "today" because they might not be around next year. Teams where the FO doesn't have to worry about that (like NE) make moves back and for future picks all the time, do so because they don't have to worry about their jobs and are thinking long-term for the team. This is why teams that are good, stay good for long periods of time. And teams that have constant turnover and turmoil, stay that way for so long. Where do you think we have fit in those two scenarios the last 10-15 years?

Thats a good point, job security is the major factor for this unbalenced value system... You can bring up the value chart all you want as someone did in this thread, but the value chart is wrong, or not anchored in reality if you will. A 3rd round pick is a 3rd round pick no matter what year it is, the fact that so many teams still value futur picks less is exploitable... It sucks that we seem to always be the ones being exploited...

 

[DKphin]

I see three possible reasons for this. One, the people who make the picks are trying to keep their jobs and they'll worry about next year if they're there to see it. Two, they get so caught in the present they undervalue the future. This happens to a lot of us in daily life, actually, so it doesn't surprise me that much. Three, they overvalue their scouting. They fall in love with a player and they lose their objectivity. It's no different than falling in love with another person, you can't see how it could possibly go wrong!

I see another reason: Mike Tannenbaum is an idiot