MOVING AND SHAKING IN THE 2008 FIRST ROUND
by Colin Lindsay, Editor and Publisher, Great Blue North Draft Report
April 9, 2008
Still sortin’…. With the 2008 draft just 2 and a half weeks away, there appears to be a reasonably solid consensus around the league that there are a clear top 7 prospects including QB Matt Ryan of Boston College, Arkansas RB Darren McFadden, Michigan OT Jake Long, DEs Chris Long of Virginia and Ohio State’s Vernon Gholston and DTs Glenn Dorsey of LSU and Sedrick Ellis of Southern California. With just 17 days to go until the draft, though, there is still no consensus top prospect overall. Indeed, both Longs, as well as Dorsey, Ryan and McFadeden all have their supporters who think they are the top-rated player in this year’s draft class, while both Gholston and Ellis show up in plenty of top 5s.
While there is still plenty of sorting out to be done at the very top of the draft board, the situation for the next 10-15 grades is downright murky. Indeed, there is more than one team around the league that rates each of the ‘Super Seven’ top prospects as a potential top 5 candidate on their value board, but doesn’t have anyone at all with a 6-10 grade. Most draft gurus and not-so-gurus, for example, rate Boise State OT Ryan Clady as a top 10 prospect, however, Clady may have dropped a bit in the eyes of many teams in the league as he isn’t necessarily always that physical while more than one team questions whether in fact he has that fire in the belly for football. At the same time, Oregon RB Jonathan Stewart , a 235-pounder with 4.4 speed, would also probably have been a lock to be a top 10 pick, if not higher, but he is sidelined for the next several months after undergoing toe surgery.
Others who have gotten some props as potential top 10 selections this year include Southern Cal LB Keith Rivers, CBs Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Leodis McKelvin and Florida DE Derrick Harvey, but all have their warts that could ultimately drop the into the second ten picks. While fast and aggressive, neither Rivers and McKelvin, for example, are considered all that instinctive by some scouts, while Harvey lacks prototype 40 speed.
Meanwhile, for his part, Rodgers-Cromartie has a non-football health condition - he has just one kidney - that could scare of some teams
Arguably the positions most in flux these days are offensive tackle and wide receiver. Like Boise State’s Clady, Vanderbilt OT Chris Williams may also be slipping to some degree. Nobody questions Williams athleticism and pass protection skills, but he’s not all that physical drive-blocking. However, with NFL teams putting such a premium on LTs with quick feet, neither Clady nor Williams are expected to fall all that far. Meanwhile, there are two huge - both literally and figuratively - wild cards at OT in Branden Albert of Virginia and Pitt’s Jeff Otah.
Albert had been considered a top 25-type prospect as the top OG in the draft class, but has seen his grade rise dramatically as more teams come to see the athletic 6-5, 315-pounder as a potential left tackle. For his part, Otah may be one of the most interesting stories of this year’s draft. A late come to football, Otah rocketed up draft charts this fall as the 322-pounder consistently dominated physically at the point off attack. Otah, though, ran a very slow 5.55 40 at the combine and hasn’t worked out since because of a high ankle sprain. So far, the slow time doesn’t seem to have affected Otah’s overall draft grade in any significant fashion, but where he ultimately gets selected could be determined to a large degree later today when he holds a private workout at Pitt.
There is perhaps even more flux at wide receiver where just about every top prospect has some kind of wart. In a perfect world, for example, 6-4, 220-pound Malcolm Kelly of Oklahoma could be a top pick, but he hasn’t been able to work out this spring because of knee problems. Indeed, there have been whispers that the problems in one of Kelly’s knees could be chronic, although he has gone to great lengths in recent weeks to refute those fears. And like Pitt’s Otah, Kelly has a big day later today when he finally runs for pro scouts at a special on-campus workout in Norman. There is something of a similar story for Limas Sweed of Texas, another potential top 20 pick, who has been hampered by a severe wrist injury, although the fact that Sweed also lacks an explosive burst also doesn‘t help his case. Meanwhile, DeSean Jackson of California and Michigan‘s Mario Manningham could both go any where from the middle of the opening round to the middle of the second. Both have elite physical skills, but both also have major attitude and work ethic questions.
The questions among the other top WRs may have opened the door for Michigan State junior Devin Thomas to be the first player selected this year at the position. Indeed, there have been rumblings that Buffalo, with the 11th pick overall, is taking a long look at Thomas, who has a unique combination of 6-1, 215-pound size and sub-4.4 speed. The only real question regarding Thomas is the fact that he was something of a one-year wonder at Michigan State where he only really emerged as a top target in 2007. Emerge Thomas did, though, as he caught 79 passes for 1,250 yards for a team which really didn’t throw the ball al that well; for good measure, Thomas was also one of the top kick returners in college football as he averaged over 29 yards per return. The other WR one is beginning to hear more and more as a possible mid-to-late first choice is Indiana junior James Hardy. Hardy, a 6-5 sometime former IU basketball player with excellent size and hands, elevated his status when he ran under 4.5 at the combine, although there are some concerns about a past off-field domestic incident.
Other players who could go almost anywhere in this year’s early rounds along with Oregon’s Stewart include Louisville QB Brian Brohm, Clemson DE Phil Merling, Tennessee MLB Jerod Mayo and Kansas CB Aqib Talib. Brohm, for example, had appeared to almost drop-off the draft radar this winter, but resurrected his status with what was described as a terrific on-campus workout. Brohm could still slip into the latter part of the opening round, but could also draw plenty of interest from teams in the middle part of the first round. For his part, it wasn’t all that long ago that Clemson’s Merling had started to attract some top 10 interest, but hasn’t worked out since undergoing hernia surgery and could slip deep into the opening round.
Meanwhile, the status of Kansas’ Talib has just been thrown into question as reports that he openly admitted to repeat marijuana usage in college. With a clean record, Talib likely would have generated some top 20 interest, but now reportedly has been dropped completely from some team’s draft boards. On the other hand, Tennessee’s Mayo has made a meteoric rise after a solid combine at whih he ran a 4.55 40 and an even better pro day workout. In a really down year at LB it wouldn’t be a total shock if Mayo were ultimately the first backer off the board later month somewhere in the middle of the opening round.
http://www.gbnreport.com/scoutsnotebook.htm
by Colin Lindsay, Editor and Publisher, Great Blue North Draft Report
April 9, 2008
Still sortin’…. With the 2008 draft just 2 and a half weeks away, there appears to be a reasonably solid consensus around the league that there are a clear top 7 prospects including QB Matt Ryan of Boston College, Arkansas RB Darren McFadden, Michigan OT Jake Long, DEs Chris Long of Virginia and Ohio State’s Vernon Gholston and DTs Glenn Dorsey of LSU and Sedrick Ellis of Southern California. With just 17 days to go until the draft, though, there is still no consensus top prospect overall. Indeed, both Longs, as well as Dorsey, Ryan and McFadeden all have their supporters who think they are the top-rated player in this year’s draft class, while both Gholston and Ellis show up in plenty of top 5s.
While there is still plenty of sorting out to be done at the very top of the draft board, the situation for the next 10-15 grades is downright murky. Indeed, there is more than one team around the league that rates each of the ‘Super Seven’ top prospects as a potential top 5 candidate on their value board, but doesn’t have anyone at all with a 6-10 grade. Most draft gurus and not-so-gurus, for example, rate Boise State OT Ryan Clady as a top 10 prospect, however, Clady may have dropped a bit in the eyes of many teams in the league as he isn’t necessarily always that physical while more than one team questions whether in fact he has that fire in the belly for football. At the same time, Oregon RB Jonathan Stewart , a 235-pounder with 4.4 speed, would also probably have been a lock to be a top 10 pick, if not higher, but he is sidelined for the next several months after undergoing toe surgery.
Others who have gotten some props as potential top 10 selections this year include Southern Cal LB Keith Rivers, CBs Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Leodis McKelvin and Florida DE Derrick Harvey, but all have their warts that could ultimately drop the into the second ten picks. While fast and aggressive, neither Rivers and McKelvin, for example, are considered all that instinctive by some scouts, while Harvey lacks prototype 40 speed.
Meanwhile, for his part, Rodgers-Cromartie has a non-football health condition - he has just one kidney - that could scare of some teams
Arguably the positions most in flux these days are offensive tackle and wide receiver. Like Boise State’s Clady, Vanderbilt OT Chris Williams may also be slipping to some degree. Nobody questions Williams athleticism and pass protection skills, but he’s not all that physical drive-blocking. However, with NFL teams putting such a premium on LTs with quick feet, neither Clady nor Williams are expected to fall all that far. Meanwhile, there are two huge - both literally and figuratively - wild cards at OT in Branden Albert of Virginia and Pitt’s Jeff Otah.
Albert had been considered a top 25-type prospect as the top OG in the draft class, but has seen his grade rise dramatically as more teams come to see the athletic 6-5, 315-pounder as a potential left tackle. For his part, Otah may be one of the most interesting stories of this year’s draft. A late come to football, Otah rocketed up draft charts this fall as the 322-pounder consistently dominated physically at the point off attack. Otah, though, ran a very slow 5.55 40 at the combine and hasn’t worked out since because of a high ankle sprain. So far, the slow time doesn’t seem to have affected Otah’s overall draft grade in any significant fashion, but where he ultimately gets selected could be determined to a large degree later today when he holds a private workout at Pitt.
There is perhaps even more flux at wide receiver where just about every top prospect has some kind of wart. In a perfect world, for example, 6-4, 220-pound Malcolm Kelly of Oklahoma could be a top pick, but he hasn’t been able to work out this spring because of knee problems. Indeed, there have been whispers that the problems in one of Kelly’s knees could be chronic, although he has gone to great lengths in recent weeks to refute those fears. And like Pitt’s Otah, Kelly has a big day later today when he finally runs for pro scouts at a special on-campus workout in Norman. There is something of a similar story for Limas Sweed of Texas, another potential top 20 pick, who has been hampered by a severe wrist injury, although the fact that Sweed also lacks an explosive burst also doesn‘t help his case. Meanwhile, DeSean Jackson of California and Michigan‘s Mario Manningham could both go any where from the middle of the opening round to the middle of the second. Both have elite physical skills, but both also have major attitude and work ethic questions.
The questions among the other top WRs may have opened the door for Michigan State junior Devin Thomas to be the first player selected this year at the position. Indeed, there have been rumblings that Buffalo, with the 11th pick overall, is taking a long look at Thomas, who has a unique combination of 6-1, 215-pound size and sub-4.4 speed. The only real question regarding Thomas is the fact that he was something of a one-year wonder at Michigan State where he only really emerged as a top target in 2007. Emerge Thomas did, though, as he caught 79 passes for 1,250 yards for a team which really didn’t throw the ball al that well; for good measure, Thomas was also one of the top kick returners in college football as he averaged over 29 yards per return. The other WR one is beginning to hear more and more as a possible mid-to-late first choice is Indiana junior James Hardy. Hardy, a 6-5 sometime former IU basketball player with excellent size and hands, elevated his status when he ran under 4.5 at the combine, although there are some concerns about a past off-field domestic incident.
Other players who could go almost anywhere in this year’s early rounds along with Oregon’s Stewart include Louisville QB Brian Brohm, Clemson DE Phil Merling, Tennessee MLB Jerod Mayo and Kansas CB Aqib Talib. Brohm, for example, had appeared to almost drop-off the draft radar this winter, but resurrected his status with what was described as a terrific on-campus workout. Brohm could still slip into the latter part of the opening round, but could also draw plenty of interest from teams in the middle part of the first round. For his part, it wasn’t all that long ago that Clemson’s Merling had started to attract some top 10 interest, but hasn’t worked out since undergoing hernia surgery and could slip deep into the opening round.
Meanwhile, the status of Kansas’ Talib has just been thrown into question as reports that he openly admitted to repeat marijuana usage in college. With a clean record, Talib likely would have generated some top 20 interest, but now reportedly has been dropped completely from some team’s draft boards. On the other hand, Tennessee’s Mayo has made a meteoric rise after a solid combine at whih he ran a 4.55 40 and an even better pro day workout. In a really down year at LB it wouldn’t be a total shock if Mayo were ultimately the first backer off the board later month somewhere in the middle of the opening round.
http://www.gbnreport.com/scoutsnotebook.htm