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GM 1 Miami vs ATL

MDFINFAN

MDFINFAN

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Wanted to talk a little about the first game and what you guys think going to happen.. Since they had the same record as us and was a bit of a come back team themselves I wanted to see where they were in terms of rebuilding compared to us and if we have a good shot at beating them at home..

They lost CB Domonique Foxworth and LB Keith Brooking replaced them with a draftee and Edmond Miles, our old LB.. They also signed FA RB Verron Haynes from the steelers ..of course the big prize signing this offseason is All-Pro tight end Tony Gonzalez. They drafted 2 corners in the draft, the first coming in the 3rd round..Chris Owens San Jose St is 5'10, 181lbs and is considered a good man to man cover-corner.. With Foxworth gone and a possible rookie 3rd rounder starting, it might be an opportunity for us to take advantage.. They still haven't addressed their Linebacking situation, and of course they still haven't resign Lawyer Malloy the Safety from last year, but he's still out there. They maybe looking at Foote from the Steelers to nail down that last LB spot..

Now to look at them vs us... I started with common opponents from last year.

They played 6 of the teams we played last year.
Arizona..they lost 30-24 in playoffs A
SD ..they won 22-16 A
Den they lost 24-20 H
Oak, they won 24-0 A
STL they won 31-27 H
KC they won 38-14 H

Their record against those teams 4-2 while we went 5-1 against those teams with 4 of our 6 games against those teams on the road..

Actually the Denver home lost was the only home lost they had all year, so they're very good at home.. 7-1 and 4-4 away... And of course we play them at home.. But if last year is any indication if Denver can beat them at home and we can beat Denver in Denver, there's always a chance to beat ATL in ATL.. We proved to be a good road team winning 4 of our last 5 on the road to take the AFCE crown. Actually we went 6-2 on the road almost matching their home wins.. Man we need to play better at home..

Statistics:
ATL: Offense Mia: Offense
PTS
24.4 (10th)......21.6 (21st)
YDS
361.2 (6th)......345.6 (12th)
PASS YDS
208.5 (14th).....227.0 (10th)
RUSH YDS
152.7 (2nd).....118.6 (11th)
Def:
PTS
20.3 (11th).......19.8(9th)
YDS
348.2 (24th).....329.0 (15th)
PASS YDS
220.4 (21st)......227.8 (25th)
RUSH YDS
127.9 (25th).....101.2 (10th)


The difference in rushing yards is Tuner's 8 100 yard games to Ronnie's 3 100 yard game...We've got to increase that for him this year..Ryan was still a rookie, so they protected him with the run.. he did have one 300 yard game..but mostly high 100's..

Here's the deal: I think their D is still the same or maybe a step back with the missing 3 and replacements..quesiton is..is our OL really an upgrade.. that's the difference in the game to me..

The rest of everything is about equal.. except they can throw the bomb, so a slight edge for them, and them being at home.

I see a score of 24-21 Mia.... base on the teams as they stand now..by the end of TC..this may change.
 
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Good analysis. I think it comes down to defense. They may be able to match us on offense, but it all depends on how much our defense harrasses Matt Ryan. If our corners come out looking to make a statement it should be an easy win. But how often do things happen as they should? This really should be a primetime game.
 
Nice write up MD.

I too am interested to see how our corners match up with their WRs, and whether or not our run D can hold up.

Should be a good game.
 
how the hell did they manage 11th best on D in points with the 21st and 25th ranked in pass and rush yds?

what the hell?

I see our DB's as much better so I see us in top ten in both offense and defense. We will need to convert on 3rd down much better to win than we did last year. But I see this game as a win because Atlanta will be blind to the wildcat with more firepower to it. Even though we may not be full bore with it in the first game, they will have to prepare for it and with White in the mix, they should be a bit lost when we switch to base offense with them expecting the same team as last year on film.

We will be much deeper on ST and all around but particularly in the DB.
 
Great post MD. I think the OL is definitely upgraded and if the secondary develops quickly and plays at least close to what I think they are capable of, Atl's deep game won't be effective. That is a lot to ask of a couple of young rookies and a secondary that has no experience playing together.

Dolphins win fairly easily.
 
I think picking up Gonzales was huge for them. Ryan is pretty accurate, give him a big TE and he will only play that much better.

Still I can't see us losing on opening day. :up:

I am very curious who ends up playing opposite Porter, and if any of the younger guys replace Akin...
 
I think Miami will prevail in this one, likely by a close margin as MD predicted (24-21 Miami?). Matt Ryan is a good QB, but I don't believe him to be the 'next coming' as many in the media seem to believe. M. Turner was a big part of Ryan's success, not to mention Ryan was given the benefit of a solid #1 like Roddy White (something many rookie QB's do not get to work with). Miami, with hopefully improved secondary coverage and (crossing my fingers here) passrush should be able to contain Turner and Ryan. However, how the Dolphins contain Gonzo (Tony) is something that concerns me (TEs could often gash our defense last year). With so many conerns on defense for ATL, I think Miami should be able to move the ball against them (of course assuming the Oline is as good if not better than last years Oline). Even with ATL gaining homefield (homedome?) advantage, I still think Miami wins a tight one.
 
One stat you did not include is our horrible 3rd down conversion rate, especially if it was 3rd and 6 or more. Improving that is a huge concern for me. It is essential to convert when you have to and we dont seem to be able to get it done.
 
I'm going to the game! Finally, I'll see my Phins in person.
 
shula_guy said:
One stat you did not include is our horrible 3rd down conversion rate, especially if it was 3rd and 6 or more. Improving that is a huge concern for me. It is essential to convert when you have to and we dont seem to be able to get it done.
Click to expand...

Even our D had trouble with 3rd downs. On just about every 3rd down, I already assumed we would give it up. Even 3rd and 15+, it just always happened to us for some reason..
 
yup that is a good point our D did struggle on stopping conversions. I think it was a larger problem on offense then it was on defense. Your correct though it is a concern on both sides of the ball for us.
 
i think this will be a very tough game for us. right now i feel atlanta is ahead of us. we should have the better defense and it may keep us in the game, but the offenses arent in the league. they have a bona fide big not 3 but 4. ryan, white, turner and gonzo are all real threats. we have one real threat in ronnie. 3 of there 4 would be a starter and an upgrade over ours, the only exception maybe ronnie. if they dont turn it over it will be tough to go there and get the win.

i believe both teams are on the way up, i just think atl has the tougher to find pieces in place.
 
shula_guy said:
One stat you did not include is our horrible 3rd down conversion rate, especially if it was 3rd and 6 or more. Improving that is a huge concern for me. It is essential to convert when you have to and we dont seem to be able to get it done.
Click to expand...

I agree with this. This is key. But, this means we have to do better on first and second down to keep our third downs to 3rd and 2. Hopefully our offensive line will be just a tad better...and if they are, look out.
 
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