Good article on "draft day myths" | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Good article on "draft day myths"

Phinja

Phinja

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For those of you with ESPN insider:


http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft07/insider/columns/story?columnist=mcshay_todd&id=2826700



For thos of you who dont have it, here is a particularly interesting tidbit:




6. If you need a franchise quarterback, get him in the first round or forget about it
It's not quite that cut-and-dried, but it's closer than one might think. Quarterbacks are the toughest players to project in terms of pro potential. No position has as many variables (system, supporting cast, level of competition, etc.) or as much of a premium put on intangibles (leadership, mental toughness, competitiveness, etc.). It also doesn't help that quarterbacks typically are drafted higher than their value because of the importance of the position.
The ones taken near the top of the draft often are thrown into the fire prematurely and expected to deliver unreasonable results, especially considering the marginal supporting cast that landed the team a top-10 draft pick in the first place.
Add it all up and it's no wonder the quarterback position has delivered some epic busts -- Heath Shuler (Redskins) in 1994; Jim Druckenmiller (49ers) in 1997; Ryan Leaf (Chargers) in 1998; Akili Smith (Bengals), Cade McNown (Bears) and Tim Couch (Browns) in 1999; Joey Harrington (Lions) in 2002; and Kyle Boller (Ravens) in 2003. Unfortunately, studies show that the majority of NFL starting quarterbacks are found in Round 1. Of the 32 NFL starters in 2006, nearly 60 percent were first-round draft choices. Sure, an occasional star is born from the later rounds, but for every Tom Brady, Jake Delhomme and Tony Romo, there are a hundred Gibran Hamdans, Tony Grazianis and Kerry Josephs trying to earn a paycheck from NFL Europa, the Arena League and the Canadian Football League.


This article discusses the validity of the draft day "rules" that many teams adhere to. Its a good read...
 
I love it....Joey Harrington on the 'epic busts' list... heh, heh.

Now we know what so many Detroit fans were trying to tell us last season that so many people refused to listen to.
 
I think where teams get in trouble is grading too much against the other QBs in that year's draft. There can't just be one top end QB in every draft, the scouts always find somebody to elevate to the point where there seems to be a competition for the top QB.

Also, you look at lot of these busts and there were several QBs taken in the first round that year. Face it, the '83 draft won't happen again, so stop taking a QB in the first round just because he is a QB.
 
EBMisfit said:
I have four words for anyone who still believes this: Joe, Montana, Tom, and Brady.
Click to expand...

The odds of getting a Brady in the 6th or even a Montana in the 3rd are very very low. It occasionally happens, but its the exception, not the rule. You cant focus on the few players that were later round gems and not consider all those later round QBs that nobody even remembers.
 
"Of the 32 NFL starters in 2006, nearly 60 percent were first-round draft choices."

I wonder if they take into account the fact that some of those starting first rounders were starting merely for the fact that they were expensive choices, and their franchise would have been hard pressed to justify starting anyone else.
 
Nearly 60% means over 40% were not first rounders. You don't have to take a QB in the first round to be successful, you just have to get the right QB and that's the hard part!
 
SoDakDolfan said:
Nearly 60% means over 40% were not first rounders. You don't have to take a QB in the first round to be successful, you just have to get the right QB and that's the hard part!
Click to expand...


Right but that also means the 60% came from ONE round... The First. Split the remaining 40% over the remaining rounds and it looks like this:

Round 1: 60%
Round 2: 9%
Round 3: 9%
Round 4: 0%
Round 5: 0%
Round 6: 11%
Round 7: 0%
Undrafted: 11%

Round one QBs win by a MILE. Not to mention BOTH Superbowl contestants had First rounders. While a QB is NEVER a sure thing, a first rounder is the safest bet. :cooldude:
 
It sure is scary taking a QB in the first round after looking at that list. The thing that is alarming is those guys are from the 90's....not the 70's or 80's.... scouting, prodays, combine, interviews, etc.
Teams really get to know players better now than in the earlier days with much better coaching and player development at major colleges...and still these guys are busts
(mostly Pac 10 schools which I think are over-rated except USC of course...evident two years ago with Oregon going undefeated not getting a BCS bowl and losing the bowl game it does go to)
 
phinphan11 said:
I love it....Joey Harrington on the 'epic busts' list... heh, heh.

Now we know what so many Detroit fans were trying to tell us last season that so many people refused to listen to.
Click to expand...


It's an unfair criticism. Compared to the other names mentioned JH has yet to play with a decent supporting cast and/ or competent coaching.
 
jlfin said:
It's an unfair criticism. Compared to the other names mentioned JH has yet to play with a decent supporting cast and/ or competent coaching.
Click to expand...

Not my list... you can slice it anyway you want, but his results are the only thing we can compare since they are facts not fiction.
 
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