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Grier drafting ability

ugadolfan

ugadolfan

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This site has been making the rounds on Twitter. Basically takes the draft position, the historical AV of players drafted at that position, and then sees whether the actual pick exceeded or failed to exceed the historical average value of the pick. You can select the years

You can filter it by GM to get a ranking. Here’s some thoughts on different time ranges:

Since 2018, Chris Grier ranks 4th among all NFL GMs. I’d expect him to go even higher in the next few years as the 2021 draft looks like his best and there’s only 1 year of data for those players.

If you expand that range just 1 year to 2017-present, he drops out of the top half of GMs. Our 2017 draft class was bad. Really bad.

Using the 2018-2021 range, the jets and the patriots ranked #32 and #31 respectively from 2017-2021 they are 31 and 30, trailing only the raiders
 
ugadolfan said:

This site has been making the rounds on Twitter. Basically takes the draft position, the historical AV of players drafted at that position, and then sees whether the actual pick exceeded or failed to exceed the historical average value of the pick. You can select the years

You can filter it by GM to get a ranking. Here’s some thoughts on different time ranges:

Since 2018, Chris Grier ranks 4th among all NFL GMs. I’d expect him to go even higher in the next few years as the 2021 draft looks like his best and there’s only 1 year of data for those players.

If you expand that range just 1 year to 2017-present, he drops out of the top half of GMs. Our 2017 draft class was bad. Really bad.

Using the 2018-2021 range, the jets and the patriots ranked #32 and #31 respectively from 2017-2021 they are 31 and 30, trailing only the raiders
Click to expand...

First, an annoyance (and everyone here knows this). Grier DOES NOT make draft picks, and, yes, I know about the 'buck stops here.' With that as a given, it is HCs, staff, scouting that does the heavy work on prospects and the talent of that group seems to be working quite well. Of note, the HC is responsible for gathering position coaches so a bad HC pick usually results in bad position coaches and, thus, poor drafts.

Given all that, not only have the draft results improved noticeably, but FA acquisitions, trades, and cap. I fail to see the negativism of some posters. I find it interesting reading about how MIA's picks compare to other teams. Yeah, there have been some burps (I didn't like the Iggy pick), but even he wasn't Pat-White-bad.
 
fansinceGWilson said:
First, an annoyance (and everyone here knows this). Grier DOES NOT make draft picks, and, yes, I know about the 'buck stops here.' With that as a given, it is HCs, staff, scouting that does the heavy work on prospects and the talent of that group seems to be working quite well. Of note, the HC is responsible for gathering position coaches so a bad HC pick usually results in bad position coaches and, thus, poor drafts.

Given all that, not only have the draft results improved noticeably, but FA acquisitions, trades, and cap. I fail to see the negativism of some posters. I find it interesting reading about how MIA's picks compare to other teams. Yeah, there have been some burps (I didn't like the Iggy pick), but even he wasn't Pat-White-bad.
Click to expand...
Patty White was like picking Mickey Mouse. And Fatty Tuna was like in love with the furry little rascal!

Never let a tuna buy the groceries!
 
fansinceGWilson said:
Given all that, not only have the draft results improved noticeably, but FA acquisitions, trades, and cap. I fail to see the negativism of some posters.
Click to expand...
Overall, things have improved in these areas, especially with the salary cap, but there is one exception... the o-line! The line went downhill beginning when Philbin wanted "finesse" o-linemen to execute his blocking schemes. Tannehill was sacked more than any other QB during his first four years (although he does deserve a small part of the blame). Even when they used 1st Round picks on OL, the overall play of the line was anywhere from slightly below average to terrible. Gase had three 1st Round picks (Tunsil, Pouncey, and James) on his line and Miami was probably one of, if not the worst team in the league when it came to converting 3rd or 4th and short on the ground and giving up tackles in the backfield for a loss of yardage. Whether you think those guys were worthy of being a 1st round pick or not, the end result was wasted picks. IMO, the Tunsil trade was a great move by Grier because the line sucked with or without Tunsil, so trading him was a no-brainer.

Most people can agree that under Flores the coaching on the offensive side of the ball was bad. However, I've read that the o-line coaches under Philbin and Gase were generally well-established coaches, so the question is how much of the blame goes to the linemen, and how much goes to the offensive schemes. Either way, Miami still has a problem fielding a competent o-line with quality depth. And last but not least, it seems like in recent history they usually do better by signing o-linemen from other teams rather than drafting them.
 
I think Grier has done an excellent job as the GM since taking over the role without having to put up with Tannebaum. The Dolphins have the best roster they have probably had in the past two decades and the vast majority of the players on the roster are players Grier has drafted, signed as free agents or traded for since Tannebaum was thankfully fired.
 
1972forever said:
I think Grier has done an excellent job as the GM since taking over the role without having to put up with Tannebaum. The Dolphins have the best roster they have probably had in the past two decades and the vast majority of the players on the roster are players Grier has drafted, signed as free agents or traded for since Tannebaum was thankfully fired.
Click to expand...
I agree that t-baum was bad but Grier has been a part of this for over 20 years.......the fact is though , we're never really going to know how mach of the drafting is/has been Grier and how much it's been the HC
 
ugadolfan said:

This site has been making the rounds on Twitter. Basically takes the draft position, the historical AV of players drafted at that position, and then sees whether the actual pick exceeded or failed to exceed the historical average value of the pick. You can select the years

You can filter it by GM to get a ranking. Here’s some thoughts on different time ranges:

Since 2018, Chris Grier ranks 4th among all NFL GMs. I’d expect him to go even higher in the next few years as the 2021 draft looks like his best and there’s only 1 year of data for those players.

If you expand that range just 1 year to 2017-present, he drops out of the top half of GMs. Our 2017 draft class was bad. Really bad.

Using the 2018-2021 range, the jets and the patriots ranked #32 and #31 respectively from 2017-2021 they are 31 and 30, trailing only the raiders
Click to expand...
Interesting. Thanks.
 
Danny said:
I agree that t-baum was bad but Grier has been a part of this for over 20 years.......the fact is though , we're never really going to know how mach of the drafting is/has been Grier and how much it's been the HC
Click to expand...
That is a key in the eval. Was Grier 10% or 90% of the decisions.
 
fansinceGWilson said:
First, an annoyance (and everyone here knows this). Grier DOES NOT make draft picks, and, yes, I know about the 'buck stops here.' With that as a given, it is HCs, staff, scouting that does the heavy work on prospects and the talent of that group seems to be working quite well. Of note, the HC is responsible for gathering position coaches so a bad HC pick usually results in bad position coaches and, thus, poor drafts.

Given all that, not only have the draft results improved noticeably, but FA acquisitions, trades, and cap. I fail to see the negativism of some posters. I find it interesting reading about how MIA's picks compare to other teams. Yeah, there have been some burps (I didn't like the Iggy pick), but even he wasn't Pat-White-bad.
Click to expand...
Noah Igbihogene is one of the most incompetent defensive backs to see an NFL field in decades. It was a disastrous pick. Austin Jackson hasn't been a whole lot better.
 
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