Have the Dolphins Really Improved this Year? | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Have the Dolphins Really Improved this Year?

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Shouright

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This post is a spin-off from the following thread:

http://www.finheaven.com/showthread...ames-Associated-with-11-4-Regular-Season-Wins

...where I took a look at the Dolphins' performance during the last three games as a function of the equation on this page:

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2007/07/what-makes-teams-win-3.html

What we have below are the same stats for every game this season. The "estimated wins" statistic (the bottom row of the table below) I believe gives an indication of the kind of level at which the team was playing in each game. Obviously an estimated wins statistic typically associated with a playoff berth (usually 10 wins or better) would be indicative of playoff-caliber football.

BROWNS
COLTS
FALCONS
SAINTS
RAVENS
BILLS
PATRIOTS
BENGALS
BUCS
CHARGERS
PANTHERS
JETS
STEELERS
PATRIOTS
SEASON
OFF PASS ATT
38
34
35
35
40
37
42
28
42
35
42
43
33
37
521
OFF PASS YARDS
255
297
195
216
272
173
145
188
211
239
280
328
179
289
3267
DEF PASS ATT
53
43
38
39
32
32
22
53
21
34
38
28
39
55
527
DEF PASS YARDS
244
315
231
397
251
178
100
302
124
281
159
78
328
357
3345
OFF SACKS
4
5
5
4
6
2
6
3
2
4
3
1
2
4
51
DEF SACKS
6
3
0
2
2
4
3
5
2
3
2
4
3
1
40
OFF INTs
1
0
1
3
0
2
2
0
1
1
1
1
1
0
14
DEF INTs
3
1
1
0
1
1
1
3
1
1
1
2
0
1
17
OFF PLAYS
65
66
55
58
57
64
79
61
58
58
62
80
60
64
887
DEF PLAYS
72
72
68
65
74
66
62
93
60
63
69
54
63
78
959
OFF FUMB
0
3
2
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
2
2
14
DEF FORCED FUMB
2
1
1
1
1
2
0
1
0
0
0
1
1
0
11
OFF RUSHES
23
27
15
19
11
25
31
30
14
19
17
36
25
23
315
OFF RUSH YARDS
20
101
90
115
22
120
156
157
2
104
52
125
181
89
1334
DEF RUSHES
13
26
30
24
40
30
37
35
37
26
28
22
21
22
391
DEF RUSH YARDS
47
133
146
68
133
90
152
163
140
154
136
99
84
96
1641
PENALTY YARDS
77
0
13
25
65
32
61
25
70
15
55
28
36
21
523
OFF NET YPA
6.0714
7.6154
4.8750
5.5385
5.9130
4.4359
3.0208
6.0645
4.7955
6.1282
6.2222
7.4545
5.1143
7.0488
5.7115
DEF NET YPA
4.1356
6.8478
6.0789
9.6829
7.3824
4.9444
4.0000
5.2069
5.3913
7.5946
3.9750
2.4375
7.8095
6.3750
5.8995
OFF INT RATE
2.6316
0.0000
2.8571
8.5714
0.0000
5.4054
4.7619
0.0000
2.3810
2.8571
2.3810
2.3256
3.0303
0.0000
2.6871
DEF INT RATE
5.6604
2.3256
2.6316
0.0000
3.1250
3.1250
4.5455
5.6604
4.7619
2.9412
2.6316
7.1429
0.0000
1.8182
3.2258
OFF FUM RATE
0.0000
4.5455
3.6364
1.7241
1.7544
1.5625
1.2658
1.6393
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
3.3333
3.1250
1.5784
DEF FF RATE
0.0278
0.0139
0.0147
0.0154
0.0135
0.0303
0.0000
0.0108
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0185
0.0159
0.0000
0.0115
OFF YPC
0.8696
3.7407
6.0000
6.0526
2.0000
4.8000
5.0323
5.2333
0.1429
5.4737
3.0588
3.4722
7.2400
3.8696
4.2349
DEF YPC
3.6154
5.1154
4.8667
2.8333
3.3250
3.0000
4.1081
4.6571
3.7838
5.9231
4.8571
4.5000
4.0000
4.3636
4.1969
PENALTY YDS RATE
0.5620
0.0000
0.1057
0.2033
0.4962
0.2462
0.4326
0.1623
0.5932
0.1240
0.4198
0.2090
0.2927
0.1479
0.2833
ESTIMATED WINS
7.55
11.72
8.99
3.93
4.88
9.39
3.91
11.29
0.35
6.13
8.43
14.78
8.58
10.12
7.95
 
ChristNotthisagain-1.jpg
 
It's football my friend, use the eye test. They havent been this good in a long time. Barring a complete collapse and two blow out losses I would say there is little or no doubt they are better than last year and maybe the past decade.
 
artdnj said:
It's football my friend, use the eye test. They havent been this good in a long time. Barring a complete collapse and two blow out losses I would say there is little or no doubt they are better than last year and maybe the past decade.
Click to expand...
I think there's good evidence that the last three games mark an upward trajectory.
 
Considering that we've had 4 games lost by 4 points…and should have won EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THEM….We'd be MUCH more improved. Get this team a decent O-line next year, and we are going places.
 
TealAttack13 said:
Yes... When was the last time we had a 4,000 yard QB, two 1,000 yard WRs, and playoff hopes in week 16...
Click to expand...
What's interesting is that the variable that's dragging down the Dolphins' season performance most is offensive net YPA, which is almost a standard deviation below the league average. When you multiply that with its corresponding coefficient, the largest one in the equation, you get nearly one loss on the year accounted for by offensive net YPA alone.

The variable most strongly responsible for the Dolphins' winning this year has been its penalty yards per play, which is nearly two standard deviations better than the league average. The defensive net YPA and defensive interception rate have been good, as well.

So essentially you have a team that's in playoff contention because it's well-disciplined, and because it has a good pass defense. Had those two variables not been what they've been, it's very likely that Ryan Tannehill's recent improvement wouldn't have been sufficient to get the team into playoff contention from the much poorer record it likely would've had.

In other words, the team's discipline and pass defense kept it afloat this year until Ryan Tannehill could improve sufficiently to get it over the hump and into playoff contention.
 
Yes, you're pretty right. Don't need to nerd it up though. :)

3 standard deviations of people globally are more akin to those below than those who get what you're trying to push. Work with those below.
 
Ruckus45 said:
Yes, you're pretty right. Don't need to nerd it up though. :)

3 standard deviations of people globally are more akin to those below than those who get what you're trying to push. Work with those below.
Click to expand...
I think you might be overestimating the degree of "push" intended. I do these analyses for my own benefit. Who reads or understands them isn't of my concern. Take what you can or will and discard the rest. :)
 
I wish you and your metrics and your hate for Tannehill would just take a hike. Have the Dolphins improved? DUH!!! Yes they have and you don't need all that junk that you post to know that. Watch the games. We just beat New England, we beat Indy, we beat the Bengals, all playoff teams. We have a great shot for the first time in ages to make the playoffs. Are we better? I think yes is the answer. I think you hate the Dolphins deep down and it bothers me that you lie about it. I won't be seeing anymore of your posts, there's a simple remedy. Bye!
 
BSQ said:
I wish you and your metrics and your hate for Tannehill would just take a hike. Have the Dolphins improved? DUH!!! Yes they have and you don't need all that junk that you post to know that. Watch the games. We just beat New England, we beat Indy, we beat the Bengals, all playoff teams. We have a great shot for the first time in ages to make the playoffs. Are we better? I think yes is the answer. I think you hate the Dolphins deep down and it bothers me that you lie about it. I won't be seeing anymore of your posts, there's a simple remedy. Bye!
Click to expand...
I guess the disclaimer didn't work for him. :lol: ;)
 
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