It is a lot of ifs but then again most signs point to a positive on those Ifs.
Houston was already rumored to be interested in Ogunleye. IF they talk turkey with us about the possible trading of Ogunleye for Henson and a 2nd, then obviously those rumors were true.
If Houston is indeed interested in Ogunleye, negotiations between he and Houston probably will go along just fine. True, Rosenhaus would have the ability to negotiate with other interested teams but how many other interested teams COULD there be? They have to have a 1st and 3rd, and be comfortable with losing both in order to obtain Ogunleye, WHILE still giving him a decent contract. The most likely candidates in this case are teams that draft later in the first round. Seattle and Philly are rumored to be interested. If the Dolphins actually GO ALONG with Ogunleye on this one and open up the option for a trade, this opens up the market for Ogunleye to a lot of teams that either did not have the 1st and 3rd round picks to give up for Ogun, or didnt want to give them up for some reason other (most likely reason being their 1st round pick was too high...ie Houston's #10 pick).
So if anything, Ogunleye and his agent, Drew Rosenhaus, have very good reasons to work with Miami on a trade scenario...especially if the only thing Houston would be giving up for Ogun in this situation is the equivalent of a 2nd this year and a 2nd next year. The people who assume that Ogunleye wouldn't cooperate on a trade I think are overestimating how many teams out there are willing to give a 1st and 3rd for him. IMO there's probably only 2 or 3 teams at the max who might begin earnest negotiations with Rosenhaus outside of a trade scenario, while if Rosenhaus worked with Miami on a trade scenario that number could become 5 or 6 teams. Anything that deepens the market for Ogun and lessens the compensation impact on the team trading/signing him, is better for the prospects of getting Ogunleye more money.
But overall I don't like this particular deal. We wouldn't be getting enough. Would you rather have a 2nd this year and a 2nd next year, or a late first and late third this year? I think I would rather have the latter.