With the 2018 season in the rear view for the Fins, the coaching and QB search is on. Moving forward, Chris Grier should draft a QB every single year. Yes, even if they Tank for Tua or Flop for Fromm or Lose for Lawrence. They should draft one in 2019. And 2020. And 2021. And 2022.
And I'll tell you several reasons why:
1) For every heralded college QB who's successful at the NFL level, there's one who flops. For every Andrew Luck, there's a RG3. For every Brett Favre, a Todd Marinovich. For every Aaron Rodgers, a Jason Cambpell. You have to keep trying, until you get the right guy. And NOBODY knows who the right guy is every time. Nobody. No, not even you, Mr. "Anyone Who Knows Football Could See That QB Was Going To Fail."
2) QBs get injured. And this also factors into the above point. Quarterbacks are hard to find. If anything has been proved during the Gase Era, it's this: You need to have a serviceable backup if your starter gets hurt. And yes, there is the mantra of "Well, there are very few teams in the NFL with a good backup." This is true. Wouldn't it be nice to be one of those teams?
3) This is the one that I keep going back to, and I think it has been criminally overlooked since the new CBA was established in 2012: QBs on their rookie contracts are incredibly valuable. Let's look at it this way: Next year, Matthew Stafford is going to cost the Lions over 29 million dollars. That's over 3 million dollars more than Baker Mayfield is going to cost the Browns for the next three seasons combined. And Mayfield was the #1 overall pick. Lower round QBs, if you hit on them, are even more valuable.
Want an example of that? Look at DeShone Kizer. Deshone Kizer was AWFUL as a rookie for the Browns in 2017. And yet the Browns were able to trade him to the Packers for a decent safety and a couple pick swaps. Why? Because he's a backup QB who will cost the team next to nothing; he's locked up on a rookie contract through 2020. That's why it made sense for the Fins to nab Luke Falk, and it makes more sense to give him as many reps as possible in preseason next year. He costs the Dolphins almost nothing to keep, and if he sets the world on fire, he could bring something back in return. Like Kizer, Falk is locked in to a contract until 2021. Per league rules, he can't even try to renegotiate his contract until his fourth year in the league.
There is no reason the Fins shouldn't do this. Not in the first round every year, obviously, but somewhere along the line. There will be wasted picks, just like there are wasted picks at *every* position, but if you hit every once in a while, the return could be tremendous.
And I'll tell you several reasons why:
1) For every heralded college QB who's successful at the NFL level, there's one who flops. For every Andrew Luck, there's a RG3. For every Brett Favre, a Todd Marinovich. For every Aaron Rodgers, a Jason Cambpell. You have to keep trying, until you get the right guy. And NOBODY knows who the right guy is every time. Nobody. No, not even you, Mr. "Anyone Who Knows Football Could See That QB Was Going To Fail."
2) QBs get injured. And this also factors into the above point. Quarterbacks are hard to find. If anything has been proved during the Gase Era, it's this: You need to have a serviceable backup if your starter gets hurt. And yes, there is the mantra of "Well, there are very few teams in the NFL with a good backup." This is true. Wouldn't it be nice to be one of those teams?
3) This is the one that I keep going back to, and I think it has been criminally overlooked since the new CBA was established in 2012: QBs on their rookie contracts are incredibly valuable. Let's look at it this way: Next year, Matthew Stafford is going to cost the Lions over 29 million dollars. That's over 3 million dollars more than Baker Mayfield is going to cost the Browns for the next three seasons combined. And Mayfield was the #1 overall pick. Lower round QBs, if you hit on them, are even more valuable.
Want an example of that? Look at DeShone Kizer. Deshone Kizer was AWFUL as a rookie for the Browns in 2017. And yet the Browns were able to trade him to the Packers for a decent safety and a couple pick swaps. Why? Because he's a backup QB who will cost the team next to nothing; he's locked up on a rookie contract through 2020. That's why it made sense for the Fins to nab Luke Falk, and it makes more sense to give him as many reps as possible in preseason next year. He costs the Dolphins almost nothing to keep, and if he sets the world on fire, he could bring something back in return. Like Kizer, Falk is locked in to a contract until 2021. Per league rules, he can't even try to renegotiate his contract until his fourth year in the league.
There is no reason the Fins shouldn't do this. Not in the first round every year, obviously, but somewhere along the line. There will be wasted picks, just like there are wasted picks at *every* position, but if you hit every once in a while, the return could be tremendous.
