High Draft Picks Are a Bad Deal

[PhinKev]

I've been thinking about this for some time. Ultimately, I think the cost benefit from having a high pick makes the pick rarely worthwhile.

The reason is cost. We are about to give a running back who has never played a down in the NFL 20 million in guaranteed money which is more than just about any running back in the league. More than Edge. More than Alexander. More than Holmes.

Why? Why are draft picks compensated higher than others that have proven their worth?

Typically, I wouldn't care. Ronnie can make a ton of money and that's fine even if he has yet to earn anything.

But, here's the downside. That is a huge amount of salary cap space that could be spent on 4 or 5 good players. Maybe more.

Combine that with the going understanding that first round picks are 50-50 propositions.

The only logical conclusion is unless you are certain that this pick is going to be a huge and I do mean huge impact player. A franchise guy. Trade out and spend the money are free agents.

Who doesn't think we would be better off signing some quality players at the OL rather than having a huge price tag for Ronnie?

WIth a 3, we could have had Edge or Alexander and money left over to sign someone who can actually block.

Instead? We have a rookie hold out, no cap space and no guarantees.

That's a bad deal in my book.

 

[ch19079]

you never know. he could be a hall of famer. he could rush for 1800 yards his rookie season. he could......

its always a gamble. but the higher the pick, the better the chances you get a great player.

 

[PhinKev]

you never know. he could be a hall of famer. he could rush for 1800 yards his rookie season. he could......

its always a gamble. but the higher the pick, the better the chances you get a great player.

That's true, but the more money you have to put out meaning more cap space which is a higher risk. It's not just money, its space that could be used on proven players.

 

[islandah]

You're always going to have some highly paid players, otherwise you won't have enough talent to win. The key is to balance it with cheaper contract players- your 5th and 6th rounders, etc. and hope they outperform their contracts.
I agree completely that unproven rookies are way overpaid. The whole TO debacle could be settled for less than half of what this unproven RB(that split carries in college) is going to get. The system is flawed when inexperienced, unproven rookies make far more than successful proven veterans.
You have to build through the draft, but I see your point about the first round pick being a relatively bad gamble from a cost to benefit perspective. But don't forget, we wanted to trade down and got no reasonable offers. I think Saban agrees with you to a point.

 

[Spinelord]

This posted on a board that has lamented for several years our consistently middle to lower slotted draft picks-If the goal is to win the Super Bowl (my goal for this team) we need the best players we can get-at an average of $4 Million per year ($20 million over 5 years) Ronnie could turn out to be a good deal after all-and if he is as good as advertised we will not only have a star but a young star with many years ahead of him-I think the really bad deal is the whole concept of "guaranteed money"

 

[Rocky Raccoon]

Honestly, I think all rookies, depending on what round they are signed, should all make the same amount of money.

 

[islandah]

Honestly, I think all rookies, depending on what round they are signed, should all make the same amount of money.

It would be relatively easy to make a pay scale ranging from #1 pick to Mr. Insignificant plus a minimum wage for undrafted free agents. Nothing wrong with adding incentive deals on top of it so if they do great, they're rewarded. But 20 million dollars guaranteed even if you suck? Ridiculous.

 

[Brad528]

Every player in the First round should get a 1 million dollar guarnteed contract and they then have to prove themselves to up the contract

 

[PassRush]

Wouldnt it be perfect if ALL upper round rookie contracts were incentive based? If Ronnie rushes for more than 1300 yards he will get his 22 million, where as if he rushed for say, 700 yards he would get 12 or 15 million. Second year they negotiate a contract. Now that would be fantasy land

 

[PhinKev]

What's amazing is that the players themselves have done nothing to fix the situation. There is significantly less salary cap space for veterans because of the silly money being spent on Rookies. The whole thing is upside down.

On top of it, listening to Ronnie say things like its between the agent and the team makes be want to puke. Take charge of your life man.

 

[DPlus47]

What's amazing is that the players themselves have done nothing to fix the situation. There is significantly less salary cap space for veterans because of the silly money being spent on Rookies. The whole thing is upside down.

the rank and file of the players' union (i.e. "the players") are clamoring for a rookie pay scale similar to the NBA. the leadership of the players' union is against the pay scale because of an apparent conflict of interest (gene upshaw is repped by a company that makes bank off rookie contracts). so the players' union needs to overrule its leadership to make something happen. easier said than done, and we as fans might not like what they would have to do to get their way.

 

[Agua]

Great example: NYJ paying Santana Moss.

 

[Mike13]

you never know. he could be a hall of famer. he could rush for 1800 yards his rookie season. he could......

its always a gamble. but the higher the pick, the better the chances you get a great player.

Well spoken.

 

[PhinKev]

the rank and file of the players' union (i.e. "the players") are clamoring for a rookie pay scale similar to the NBA. the leadership of the players' union is against the pay scale because of an apparent conflict of interest (gene upshaw is repped by a company that makes bank off rookie contracts). so the players' union needs to overrule its leadership to make something happen. easier said than done, and we as fans might not like what they would have to do to get their way.

If that's the reason, then that's just shameful. Players need to get together and take back their union.

 

[Merman]

What's amazing is that the players themselves have done nothing to fix the situation. There is significantly less salary cap space for veterans because of the silly money being spent on Rookies. The whole thing is upside down.

On top of it, listening to Ronnie say things like its between the agent and the team makes be want to puke. Take charge of your life man.

You are puking for nothing and should wait for the deal to be completed and understood.

Due to the Rookie Allocation Pool Brown's salary charge this year is going to be about $2.692 million.

Last year's number one draft pick Eli Manning's contract breaks down like this:

2004 $3 million signing bonus
2005 $9 million option bonus.

Base Salaries:
Manning, Eli
Player Info..........Draft Info
QB (#)................Year: 2004
New York Giants....Round: 1
New Orleans, LA....Position: 1
Salary History
2004 1,744,000.00
2005 305,000.00
2006 741,000.00
2007 1,177,000.00
2008 1,613,000.00
2009 2,049,000.00
2010 2,485,000.00

If you add the signing and option bonus and guaranteed base salaries for 2004 to 2009 that is the total $20 million guaranteed. The rest of the reported $40 million contract has to be in incentives, which if earned no one will care. Do note that the original term was six years and the option bonus added the seventh. There is also a buy back clause for two years.

This is his first year salary charge:
Manning, Eli
Year Team Base Salary Sign Bonus Other Bonus Total Salary
2004 Giants $ 1,744,000 $ 3,000,000 $ 0 $ 4,744,000


Cap Value Position
$2,244,000 QB

Robert Gallery the number two pick got a reported $60 million six year contract and I only know the first two year bonuses total $14.5 million. I do not know where the $18.3 million guaranteed reported recently comes from. Also note that this contract also now has a seventh year.

2004 $8 million signing bonus
2005 $6.5 million option bonus.

Gallery, Robert
Player Info..........Draft Info
OL (#)...............Year: 2004
Oakland Raiders....Round: 1
Masonville, IA......Position: 2
Salary History
2004 1,300,000.00
2005 325,000.00
2006 650,000.00
2007 975,000.00
2008 1,300,000.00
2009 1,625,000.00
2010 1,625,000.00

Note if you add the $14.5 million bonuses and base salaries from 2004 to 2009 the total is $20.675 million not $60 million.

This is his first year salary charge:
Gallery, Robert
Year Team Base Salary Sign Bonus Other Bonus Total Salary
2004 Raiders $ 1,300,000 $ 8,000,016 $ 0 $ 9,300,016

Cap Value Position
$2,633,336 OL