How Many Wins in 2013 was Ryan Tannehill Responsible for? | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

How Many Wins in 2013 was Ryan Tannehill Responsible for?

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Shouright

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From the following webpage:

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2007/08/qb-passer-rating.html

Advanced NFL Stats said:
The components of the new passer rating are weighted according to how important they are in terms of team wins. The formula is based on a multivariate regression model of team wins. Using data from the past five NFL regular seasons, the regression model estimates team wins based on the efficiency stats of each team including passing, running, turnovers, and penalties. Regression models can hold all other factors equal, so by only adjusting the factors of interest (passing performance) we can calculate the effect on the estimate of season wins. Arbitrary weighting is not necessary.

1. Is not arbitrary. Each component is weighted exactly as much as their relative importance to winning games. These weights are derived from a regression model using data from all teams since the 2002 expansion.

2. The result is stated in units of team wins over a 16-game regular season. The regression model allows the passer rating model's component weights to translate directly into how many additional wins a QB's performance would yield, on average, over 16 full games.

3. Is not redundant. The components do not double count passing stats.

4. Includes only the passing stats primarily controlled by the QB. Factors such as passing yards after catch are not included.

After some quick algebra to simplify the equation, the resulting formula of the improved new passer rating is:

QB Wins Added = [(Air Yds - Sack Yds) * 1.56 - INTs * 50.5 ] / Pass Attempts - 3
Click to expand...
Utilizing the above formula, we get the following data for the 2013 season:

Player
Wins Added
Nick Foles
2.69
Peyton Manning
2.50
Aaron Rodgers
1.88
Philip Rivers
1.94
Drew Brees
1.72
Russell Wilson
1.70
Colin Kaepernick
1.87
Tony Romo
1.03
Matthew Stafford
0.69
Andy Dalton
0.41
Jay Cutler
1.73
Ben Roethlisberger
0.50
Sam Bradford
0.18
Tom Brady
0.94
Andrew Luck
0.57
Alex Smith
0.18
Matt Ryan
0.27
Matt Cassel
0.62
Cam Newton
-0.04
Carson Palmer
0.82
Ryan Fitzpatrick
0.55
Robert Griffin III
0.35
Case Keenum
1.12
Jason Campbell
-0.11
Mike Glennon
0.97
Ryan Tannehill
0.41
EJ Manuel
-0.15
Chad Henne
-0.95
Joe Flacco
-0.48
Eli Manning
0.13
Matt Schaub
0.25
Brandon Weeden
0.49
Geno Smith
-0.42
AVERAGE
0.74
STANDARD DEVIATION
0.87
TANNEHILL
0.41
TANNEHILL Z-SCORE
-0.38
TANNEHILL PERCENTILE RANK
40.6

As with seemingly just about everything, he was around average.
 
Tannehill improved this year despite continued hardship on other areas of the team. All that matters right now.
 
Gotta think a QB has something to do with most every win. Don't understand the need for this stat. Interesting though I guess.
 
How does Eli have a better score than Cam Newton?
 
Also this stat seems to lack legs if they cant show where the other wins and losses formulate from the rest of the players on the team. So Tannehill added 0.41 wins. Now show me where the rest of the wins and losses come from and how every other position reflects wins and losses, its weight, formula ect.
 
He is responsible for 8. 8 times this year he led the team to more points than our opponent. Every other player on the roster is responsible for 8 wins/losses as well.
 
Notice that the quarterbacks with the highest yards per attempt pretty much monopolize the top of the list, and mostly in order. No kidding. The guys here who knock YPA remind me of the goofs who show up on political sites during election years and pretend they know what they are talking about. Meanwhile, it's one flail after another, always fixated on the current news cycle obsession, with no concept of the big picture. Walrus put it well today, to focus on the value of the pot.

Here, I'll toss a bone to the happy adjusters, since I'm such a nice guy. Check out Tony Romo's lifetime YPA numbers. You guys waste too much time with Andy Dalton and Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson and Andrew Luck. I guess there's a determination to diminish the younger quarterbacks, Tannehill's peers.

I should have posted more frequently on Cam Newton's weak season. I did mention it before and after our game with Carolina, that Newton was not close to his Auburn 2010 level and had become too line drive prone. I also posted it before and after the 49ers/Panthers game, including that I would be surprised if the 49ers lost, considering Newton's inability to put many points on the board. San Francisco is receiving far too much credit for defeating a team with a moderate quarterback. Somehow Newton's reputation, and the record of his team, obscured that he really faltered this season, more than 2 yards lower per completion than 2012 and nearly a yard lower per attempt. His pocket presence declined also. Last season Newton could take over a game. This year the team had to win despite him, shouldered by the defense.
 
Awsi Dooger said:
Notice that the quarterbacks with the highest yards per attempt pretty much monopolize the top of the list, and mostly in order. No kidding. The guys here who knock YPA remind me of the goofs who show up on political sites during election years and pretend they know what they are talking about. Meanwhile, it's one flail after another, always fixated on the current news cycle obsession, with no concept of the big picture. Walrus put it well today, to focus on the value of the pot.

Here, I'll toss a bone to the happy adjusters, since I'm such a nice guy. Check out Tony Romo's lifetime YPA numbers. You guys waste too much time with Andy Dalton and Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson and Andrew Luck. I guess there's a determination to diminish the younger quarterbacks, Tannehill's peers.

I should have posted more frequently on Cam Newton's weak season. I did mention it before and after our game with Carolina, that Newton was not close to his Auburn 2010 level and had become too line drive prone. I also posted it before and after the 49ers/Panthers game, including that I would be surprised if the 49ers lost, considering Newton's inability to put many points on the board. San Francisco is receiving far too much credit for defeating a team with a moderate quarterback. Somehow Newton's reputation, and the record of his team, obscured that he really faltered this season, more than 2 yards lower per completion than 2012 and nearly a yard lower per attempt. His pocket presence declined also. Last season Newton could take over a game. This year the team had to win despite him, shouldered by the defense.
Click to expand...
The correlation between YPA and the "wins added" statistic in the original post is 0.84.
 
I'll bet the gang over at thephins.com would love stuff like this... you should go give the site a try, for a year or two.
 
Good, another set of numbers showing that Tannehill is basically the same QB as Luck and better than RGIII. Looks like he was decent value in the draft. He is also better than Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Sam Bradford, Alex Smith, and Eli Manning. He is in the same class as Dalton, Roethlisberger, and Stafford. He is also not far away from Brady.

This formula (as noted in the article) is based mainly on air yards per attempt. Tannehill was 17th among starters in that category in 2013. Ahead of Brady, Luck, Ryan, Romo, Dalton, RGIII, Stafford, Roethlisberger, Newton, Flacco, Bradford, and Smith.

I'm fine with this. Now will the Angry Deniers dispute the company that this places Tannehill in?
 
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