How Scoring Stats can be Misleading

[enigmatics]

Henne used to drive the ball well between the 20s then wound up settling for a FG. That offense had the same issue with finishing drives. Yards and pre season wins are pretty numbers but points are what's needed and scoring less than a half point per drive against a bad defense is a concern.

The great ones excel and putting the ball in tight spots when the coverage tightens up in the redzone. That's why I don't really care about what goes on between the 20's if we're not scoring.

 

[phins_4_ever]

Many here on this board seem to have a notion that a lack of points will lead directly to a lack of success. But such an idea assumes that the other team in each individual game is outscoring us by a large margin, when in reality the Dolphins keep games low scoring and competitive throughout. So in actuality, you could score "few" points but remain competitive with any team in each individual game.

Our Preseason reflects such a reality, the Dolphins have kept games close throughout and won two out of three thanks to strong play from our depth players. So even though we haven't scored as many points as other teams, we can score enough to WIN football games. As we saw with the Broncos, it matters not how good your stats are, it matters that you WIN each individual game utilizing whatever means.

I for one have complete confidence in this football team, they sound and look like Winners. They look like they have established chemistry from one year together, I am expecting 10 wins from our team this year, with one occurring within the first two games.

That philosophy only gets you so far. May I remind you of last year in which we lost the last two games with that philosophy.

 

[WVDolphan]

Henne used to drive the ball well between the 20s then wound up settling for a FG. That offense had the same issue with finishing drives. Yards and pre season wins are pretty numbers but points are what's needed and scoring less than a half point per drive against a bad defense is a concern.

That is good but the real problem was getting to the red zone
Miami ranked 23rd in getting to red zone with less than 3 trips a game (2.9)
Again last night the starting offense only managed 2 trips to red zone. And then settled for FG and turnover.

We should trade Matt Moore for Henne.

Let Henne QB the team until we get in scoring range and then let Tannehill come in. Two terrible QBs that FH loves teaming up.

 

[Mr. Day]

Yeah but points help teams win comfortably.

 

[Daytona Fin]

 

[CRAZYDOLFAN305]

I completely understand what you are saying. The results in are meaningless. Study the situations. 500 yards of total offense is impressive, pre season or not. That helps with defining your identity..

 

[PhinFan1968]

That is good but the real problem was getting to the red zone
Miami ranked 23rd in getting to red zone with less than 3 trips a game (2.9)
Again last night the starting offense only managed 2 trips to red zone. And then settled for FG and turnover.

My response was to the statement that we were horrible in the RZ. That was the topic being discussed.

But I'll follow with ya. 2 of 4 possessions went to the red zone. Tell me how that's a bad percentage? Certainly on pace for more than 2.9 a game.

"Settled" for a turnover...so they stopped, decided "wtf guys, we need to settle for a fumble, make it happen." They had a fumble that killed one drive and an INT that killed another, both of which they were driving. We couldn't expect that much drive last year, especially in last pre-season.

 

[J. David Wannyheimer]

That is good but the real problem was getting to the red zone
Miami ranked 23rd in getting to red zone with less than 3 trips a game (2.9)
Again last night the starting offense only managed 2 trips to red zone. And then settled for FG and turnover.

I think it's useful to look at red zone appearances per drive more than anything. Last night, not counting the end of half kneeldown, it was what, 2 of 5?

 

[PhinFan1968]

I think it's useful to look at red zone appearances per drive more than anything. Last night, not counting the end of half kneeldown, it was what, 2 of 5?

2 of 4 not counting kneeldown.

 

[FinfanInBuffalo]

The great ones excel and putting the ball in tight spots when the coverage tightens up in the redzone. That's why I don't really care about what goes on between the 20's if we're not scoring.

Then you should be happy with Tannehill in general and ecstatic with Tannehill over Henne.

According to Jaworski, red zone play was one of Ryan Tannehill’s biggest strengths, as that is where he did most of his damage.

“Where Tannehill was at his best in 2013 was in the red zone,” said Jaworski. “He threw 18 touchdowns (in that area), with only one pick.”

With a QB Rating of 38.6, according to Pro Football Reference, in the red zone, Henne has the lowest such red zone total among all quarterbacks with at least 20 pass attempts.

Miami was 11th in TD redzone % last season and we know it wasn't from running the ball. Miami's QB rating was 6th in the league in the redzone. Jacksonville was 32nd.

 

[Fins1971]

I think it's useful to look at red zone appearances per drive more than anything. Last night, not counting the end of half kneeldown, it was what, 2 of 5?

Not bad when you look at it that way. however if you look a red zones appearance last year most came in the 1st half and early 3rd quarter. Then the 4th quarter was mostly non-existent. Evidenced by our 4.2 points per 4th. 28th in the league. So to assume we were going to keep it up goes against past history. Once a opposing defense know we can't score a TD. It gets hard to maintain these drives. Happened in the Jet game last year

 

[MD]

RT was red zone money last year...so soon we forget. 18 TDs, 1 INT. #2 in the NFL in that area last year.

1. Where did I say he was bad in the red zone.

2. That averages to just over one Redzone trip resulting in a TD per game. Think about that.

 

[PhinFan1968]

1. Where did I say he was bad in the red zone.

2. That averages to just over one Redzone trip resulting in a TD per game. Think about that.

That wasn't your point, and I quote:

"Henne used to drive the ball well between the 20s then wound up settling for a FG. That offense had the same issue with finishing drives." That says to me they have a problem finishing drives...not getting to the RZ.

But to this point, I don't see anything this pre-season that says they won't drive much better than last year. They've moved downfield FAR better than last pre-season and season to this point, even though it's only pre-season.