DKphin
Club Member
[video]http://www.nfl.com/draft/story/09000d5d82867bed/article/how-to-draft-a-qb-part-3-what-could-have-been?module=HP11_cp[/video]
How to draft a QB, Part 3: What could have been?
- Thread starter DKphin
- Start date
Pachyderm_Wave
Hartselle Tigers (15-0) 5-A State Champ
- Joined
- Jul 28, 2008
- Messages
- 15,323
- Reaction score
- 13,905
The point that gets overlooked here is that QB development is the answer. Not simply looking at successful QB's now through the benefit of hindsight, who were afforded the opportunity to sit on the bench for several seasons and learn a system before being inserted as a starter... and just assuming beyond a shadow of a doubt that if the teams that passed on these QB's had drafted them, that they wouldn't be in the shape they're in now.
In other words, it still boils down to developing the quarterback. You can't just turn a card in with a kid's name on it and think you're done.
The way that Aaron Rodgers played when he was given the opportunity to during his first 3 years, believe me... he wasn't saving anybody from anything. He would've busted out like all the Tedford QB's before him that were allowed to play before they were ready. It's still boils down to QB development.
Steve Young is an excellent case study for a guy who obviously had the talent to succeed in the NFL, but was a complete disaster in Tampa Bay. He would never have become an NFL legend there. He would've been an afterthought in the same way people think about Heath Shuler. After Young was allowed to go to a different organization that knew how to develope quarterbacks, he was able to sit and learn behind a Hall of Fame veteran and learn a system.
The difference between success and failure for young quarterbacks often boils down to the situation they were put in. Would Favre hold all the passing records, be a superbowl champion and HOF'er had he stayed in Atlanta rather than going to an organization in Green Bay that knew how to develope quarterbacks? Doubtful.
Michael Vick would never have developed into the quarterback he became under Andy Reid had he stayed in Atlanta.
The thing to take notice of is that anywhere you find a successful young quarterback, you can also usually find a lineage of successful and competent quarterback development there with either coaching or system as the common denominator.
What Billick fails to do here is hold himself or the organizations that draft these quarterbacks accountable for the outcome. It's essentially, "Well, that college QB we drafted couldn't save us, therefore he was a bust".
It's not quite that black and white.
In other words, it still boils down to developing the quarterback. You can't just turn a card in with a kid's name on it and think you're done.
The way that Aaron Rodgers played when he was given the opportunity to during his first 3 years, believe me... he wasn't saving anybody from anything. He would've busted out like all the Tedford QB's before him that were allowed to play before they were ready. It's still boils down to QB development.
Steve Young is an excellent case study for a guy who obviously had the talent to succeed in the NFL, but was a complete disaster in Tampa Bay. He would never have become an NFL legend there. He would've been an afterthought in the same way people think about Heath Shuler. After Young was allowed to go to a different organization that knew how to develope quarterbacks, he was able to sit and learn behind a Hall of Fame veteran and learn a system.
The difference between success and failure for young quarterbacks often boils down to the situation they were put in. Would Favre hold all the passing records, be a superbowl champion and HOF'er had he stayed in Atlanta rather than going to an organization in Green Bay that knew how to develope quarterbacks? Doubtful.
Michael Vick would never have developed into the quarterback he became under Andy Reid had he stayed in Atlanta.
The thing to take notice of is that anywhere you find a successful young quarterback, you can also usually find a lineage of successful and competent quarterback development there with either coaching or system as the common denominator.
What Billick fails to do here is hold himself or the organizations that draft these quarterbacks accountable for the outcome. It's essentially, "Well, that college QB we drafted couldn't save us, therefore he was a bust".
It's not quite that black and white.
- Joined
- Apr 27, 2007
- Messages
- 10,411
- Reaction score
- 13,331
I am confident that Philbin and Sherman are more capable of developing QBs than anyone that has been in Miami for a long time
Rodgers is the best recent example, as TedSlimm pointed out. If you stuck the 2005 version of Rodgers, with the tipsy ball position, on the field at San Francisco or Miami, the results would have been brutal, and the fans livid and impatient. He might have survived it before being booted out of town but there's no guarantee.
I'm old enough to remember Jim Plunkett at Stanford. He was in the Elway/Luck category of near-flawless prospect. Yet Plunkett was battered in his early years with the Patriots and seldom resembled the guy I saw in college. After Plunkett was traded at high tariff to the 49ers, and released two years later, I remember calling the Miami radio sports talk shows on WIOD and WKAT campaigning for the Dolphins to make a move to acquire Plunkett, who was considered nerve withered and worthless by that point, literally pitied by the sporting public. But it was perfect timing since Griese was winding down and Strock was obviously backup caliber. I already had the notion that great value was available if you grabbed someone who was a super blue chipper early in his career, then ridiculously devalued, often due to situational influence. Unfortunately, Al Davis understood that far beyond Don Shula, and the Raiders scooped up Plunkett, and eventually two rings, after Plunkett mended his confidence for a couple of years on the bench. It was one of the great restoration projects of all time, yet younger fans were content to ridicule Davis in his final years. Not exactly history majors.
Now we're threatening to force the opposite route, to pick someone very high who has never been rated there. It might work. Everything carries a percentage. It will be lower than we estimate. Perhaps we'll get away with Tannehill in the same year Bodemeister -- likely favored -- wins the Derby, even though a horse unraced at 2 hasn't captured the roses in 130 years. For whatever reason, situational influence is largely ignored in football although it's been a well known tool in other sports for a century or more.
IMO, the missed opportunity was Roethlisberger in 2004. He looked exactly the same at Miami-Ohio as with the Steelers. The bowl rout of Louisville featured pass rushers brushed aside and darts downfield. He announced immediately after the game on ESPN that he was turning pro. Unlike 2012, after two legit star quarterbacks near the top you didn't have to reach for the third. Roethlisberger had already slipped, for whatever reason, on the draft charts by early March when brain dead Spielman traded for A. J. Feeley. There were a string of teams low in the top 10 of the draft order that were already committed to quarterbacks. At #20 we could have vaulted there and stolen Roethlisberger if Spielman had maintained the #2 for Feeley as ammunition, and had the guts and foresight to thrown in some extras, perhaps the 2005 #1. I was on golfing vacation in Palm Springs at the time. When we panicked and surrendered the #4 to move up one spot for Carey, I remember driving toward San Diego and nearly weaving off the road, knowing darn well we'd invested a #2 and #4 for nothing at all. At that point I had to root for Roethlisberger to bust, which was out of contention by the middle of his rookie year, and an astronomical YPA.
Swapping the 2005 #1 would have meant avoiding Ronnie Brown, and all those stutter steps mixed with mindless grins. I'm going to need an ambien tonight, after reminding myself of the domino horrors.
I'm old enough to remember Jim Plunkett at Stanford. He was in the Elway/Luck category of near-flawless prospect. Yet Plunkett was battered in his early years with the Patriots and seldom resembled the guy I saw in college. After Plunkett was traded at high tariff to the 49ers, and released two years later, I remember calling the Miami radio sports talk shows on WIOD and WKAT campaigning for the Dolphins to make a move to acquire Plunkett, who was considered nerve withered and worthless by that point, literally pitied by the sporting public. But it was perfect timing since Griese was winding down and Strock was obviously backup caliber. I already had the notion that great value was available if you grabbed someone who was a super blue chipper early in his career, then ridiculously devalued, often due to situational influence. Unfortunately, Al Davis understood that far beyond Don Shula, and the Raiders scooped up Plunkett, and eventually two rings, after Plunkett mended his confidence for a couple of years on the bench. It was one of the great restoration projects of all time, yet younger fans were content to ridicule Davis in his final years. Not exactly history majors.
Now we're threatening to force the opposite route, to pick someone very high who has never been rated there. It might work. Everything carries a percentage. It will be lower than we estimate. Perhaps we'll get away with Tannehill in the same year Bodemeister -- likely favored -- wins the Derby, even though a horse unraced at 2 hasn't captured the roses in 130 years. For whatever reason, situational influence is largely ignored in football although it's been a well known tool in other sports for a century or more.
IMO, the missed opportunity was Roethlisberger in 2004. He looked exactly the same at Miami-Ohio as with the Steelers. The bowl rout of Louisville featured pass rushers brushed aside and darts downfield. He announced immediately after the game on ESPN that he was turning pro. Unlike 2012, after two legit star quarterbacks near the top you didn't have to reach for the third. Roethlisberger had already slipped, for whatever reason, on the draft charts by early March when brain dead Spielman traded for A. J. Feeley. There were a string of teams low in the top 10 of the draft order that were already committed to quarterbacks. At #20 we could have vaulted there and stolen Roethlisberger if Spielman had maintained the #2 for Feeley as ammunition, and had the guts and foresight to thrown in some extras, perhaps the 2005 #1. I was on golfing vacation in Palm Springs at the time. When we panicked and surrendered the #4 to move up one spot for Carey, I remember driving toward San Diego and nearly weaving off the road, knowing darn well we'd invested a #2 and #4 for nothing at all. At that point I had to root for Roethlisberger to bust, which was out of contention by the middle of his rookie year, and an astronomical YPA.
Swapping the 2005 #1 would have meant avoiding Ronnie Brown, and all those stutter steps mixed with mindless grins. I'm going to need an ambien tonight, after reminding myself of the domino horrors.
fishbanger
Phin fan since 1970!
Dont forget Drew Brees Fiasco. That was good and probably the way philbin thinks.
