How would getting a 1st rd 3rd WR change our scheme?

[artdnj]

I'm not sure that I believe in 'win-now mode'.

We have a young QB who we are preparing to extend-- probably on a 5 year deal.

It seems to me that if we are signing a QB to carry us through 2030 or so, that this implies you are building for ALL of the years between now and 2030, not just for 2024.

...and if you sacrifice multiple years for now, you are just setting yourself for long term mediocrity.

I believe we are ready, in a year or two we'll lose our best wr and CB most likely. Last year was ours until injuries, we're ready NOW. If he drafts a project in the first Grier should be tarred and feathered. I am not saying the guy has to play every snap game 1 but he has to be able to fill in and not be red-shirted. We have had too many of these guys.

 

[Feverdream]

I believe we are ready, in a year or two we'll lose our best wr and CB most likely. Last year was ours until injuries, we're ready NOW. If he drafts a project in the first Grier should be tarred and feathered. I am not saying the guy has to play every snap game 1 but he has to be able to fill in and not be red-shirted. We have had too many of these guys.

I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree and that's ok...

The players who I would hate to see us draft are guys like Barton or Verse-- players who I expect to have high floors, but low ceilings.

These are the guys who i associate with NOW or NEED drafting.

Now, i understand if you think these players do, indeed, have high ceilings, but i just don't see that.

 

[rafael]

Great post, although we disagree on alot, I love how you structured this post.

I'd personally be Over the Moon with Latu as well but the neck injury thing worries me a bit.

Where we majorly disagree is on the DTs at 21. I don't see the value in them at 21. At 31, sure, fine, but at 21 Nelson and Murphy simply won't be the best players available.

Murphy is a guy who I doubt makes it to 21 much less 31. Daniel Jeremiah just listed Murphy as one of his sleepers to go in the top 10. And I think Newton is as good as Murphy. He has an odd body shape so I'm not sure he looks the part, but he reminds me a bit of Warren Sapp. He strikes me as one of those guys who is just a great player but gets over looked and then has a chip on their shoulder their whole career (in a good way). IMO you are way low on just how good those two players are.

 

[rafael]

I believe we are ready, in a year or two we'll lose our best wr and CB most likely. Last year was ours until injuries, we're ready NOW. If he drafts a project in the first Grier should be tarred and feathered. I am not saying the guy has to play every snap game 1 but he has to be able to fill in and not be red-shirted. We have had too many of these guys.

I just believe that we'll replace those guys.

 

[SF Dolphin Fan]

Personally, I would take a great OT, then a great pass rusher, then a great WR in that order. They are all premium positions at areas of need. Unfortunately, I don't expect that we'll get our pick of those three positions. But I wouldn't push need above taking a great player. For example, I wouldn't take a lesser OT (or a poor fit, he'd be a lesser OT for us) over a great pass rusher.

So looking at the board and trying to guess at what other teams will take at what may be available, my short list would go something like this:

Over the moon
Fautanu: I'd say 25% chance he makes it to 21, but I'd run the card up if he did.
Latu: I'd say maybe a 75% chance he makes it to 21, but another guy I see a potential perennial pro bowl player.

Happy
Barton: 75% chance to make it to 21. Another guy with perennial pro bowl potential at multiple positions.

Satisfied we made a good pick
JC Latham: 75% chance to make it to 21. Pro bowl T potential, but probably would redshirt and not play G in the interim.
Murphy: 25%-50% chance. A less premium position, but a great player.
Newton: 25%-50% chance. A less premium position, but a great player.

I wouldn't complain about any of those 6, but there's a clear 3 tiers to my level of excitement.

I'm not as high on Verse, Thomas or Mims, which are the the other ones I hear mentioned here often.

Of the WRs, I see almost zero chance of any of the top 3 making it to 21. I'm not a fan of Brian Thomas and hope he gets picked by somebody like Buffalo trading up ahead of us. My #4 WR is Legette, but I'd rather trade down (which I see as unlikely unless some team covets a QB at our spot), and get him later or pick one of my top 5 and add a WR like Pearsall or Wilson lower.

I agree with almost all of this. I like your tiers, and your thoughts are similar to how I feel.

We definitely difer on Thomas and Verse. Thomas isn't elite just yet, so I can see the reluctance there. He certainly has elite traits, but isn't a complete receiver. If he can work on his routes, and gets in the right situation, he can become elite IMO. Still, 17 touchdowns stands out for a player that hasn't reached his ceiling.

I've heard some Davante Parker comps. I think he's closer to DJ Metcalf. Thomas has a different speed than Parker. Anyway, that's my take.

Now, would he be the right pick for Miami? I think that's debatable. I'd definitely feel better about an offensive linemen to solve that issue and give Tua more time to throw.

But I also look at Cincinnati, a team that had three really good receivers, an offensive line maybe slightly better than Miami's, and nearly won the super bowl a few years back.

 

[Stoobz]

McDuffie, Sneed and Chris Jones won them that Super Bowl.

Indeed! I was referring to the one where the Chiefs' best offense in football only scored nine points, however.

Add: "...Shaquil Barrett, Ndamukong Suh, Vita Vea, and Jason Pierre-Paul, Tampa Bay pressured Mahomes an incredible 21 times, sacking him three times and forcing two interceptions."

 

[artdnj]

I just believe that we'll replace those guys.

agree but that's proven to be a difficult task outside of FA. and please no more Tindalls, EZ, Cam(maybe old man's fault, who knows), IGGY, Eich

 

[Mach2]

We would be moving from heavy sets to 11 personnel at least 50% the time. I guess we would borrow some from the Rams' playbook. Much more duo and ISZ, I know, yuck but our passing game!

Brian Thomas Jr carried the rock a little at LSU, too. That also means he might do so a bit here.

It would really add a whole dimension to our playbook which has its ups and downs too, but the way our offense seems to get figured out adding such dimension would be really helpful.

After reading through the discussion, I haven't seen what might be the obvious answer.

The overall scheme may not change at all.

Of the top 10 in receptions last year, aside from Hill and Waddle, the only WRs were Berrios and Wilson, who had a combined 49 receptions out of 393.

Now, one certainly might argue there is value in adding a more talented player at the 3 spot. Would it really alter the scheme, though?

Are we going to cut targets for Hill or Waddle? I doubt it. Smythe was #3 in receptions with 35 while J. Hill caught 6 balls for a total of 41 out of the TE position.

I see many proponents of getting Achane more involved as a receiver, which makes sense. The FA signing of Jonnu Smith would imply he will get some run in the passing game too.

So, I'll ask you all this. How many targets/receptions do we realistically expect out of our perspective rd1 selection for WR3?

I guess you can make a case that it would be a move toward the future, but that has no immediate, scheme altering affect and, IMO, we would logically be better served addressing that next year.

 

[artdnj]

After reading through the discussion, I haven't seen what might be the obvious answer.

The overall scheme may not change at all.

Of the top 10 in receptions last year, aside from Hill and Waddle, the only WRs were Berrios and Wilson, who had a combined 49 receptions out of 393.

Now, one certainly might argue there is value in adding a more talented player at the 3 spot. Would it really alter the scheme, though?

Are we going to cut targets for Hill or Waddle? I doubt it. Smythe was #3 in receptions with 35 while J. Hill caught 6 balls for a total of 41 out of the TE position.

I see many proponents of getting Achane more involved as a receiver, which makes sense. The FA signing of Jonnu Smith would imply he will get some run in the passing game too.

So, I'll ask you all this. How many targets/receptions do we realistically expect out of our perspective rd1 selection for WR3?

I guess you can make a case that it would be a move toward the future, but that has no immediate, scheme altering affect and, IMO, we would logically be better served addressing that next year.

Question of the year, McD has been lauded as a scheme guru so we would have to sit and wait and see what he comes up with. If he won't use a stud #3 we shouldn't get one just like if he won't use a stud TE we shouldn't get one. I do know that we need to come up with a game plan for one or both of our top dogs going down or slowed down by injury. It will be hard to keep energizer bunny Hill fresh later in the season without some relief because he gives 110% every damn down. Waddle has to have something wrong with his ankle/s as he looks hurt when healthy, hopefully, it's just his natural gait.

 

[MrChadRico]

Murphy is a guy who I doubt makes it to 21 much less 31. Daniel Jeremiah just listed Murphy as one of his sleepers to go in the top 10. And I think Newton is as good as Murphy. He has an odd body shape so I'm not sure he looks the part, but he reminds me a bit of Warren Sapp. He strikes me as one of those guys who is just a great player but gets over looked and then has a chip on their shoulder their whole career (in a good way). IMO you are way low on just how good those two players are.

It's a combo of issues with the DTs for me. And I'm sure one of them is going to be very good.

Issue #1 - DTs bust..... and they bust often, of all position groups, when looking at 1st round bust rate, DT and WR are the position groups with the most busts. And WRs are only on the list bc teams reach for them way too often. Teams don't reach for Defensive Tackles, they draft these guys thinking they are low risk and then..... bust.

Issue #2 - I don't have a top 10 grade on either of them because of their size. They are both too small to give a top 10 grade too. And if you wanna talk about Aaron Daronld being undersized, just stop, he's a once in a generation talent.

If we want Murphy or Newton, I'm fine with taking them, but not at #21. Trade down to around 30 and get Murphy, I can live with that.

 

[rafael]

It's a combo of issues with the DTs for me. And I'm sure one of them is going to be very good.

Issue #1 - DTs bust..... and they bust often, of all position groups, when looking at 1st round bust rate, DT and WR are the position groups with the most busts. And WRs are only on the list bc teams reach for them way too often. Teams don't reach for Defensive Tackles, they draft these guys thinking they are low risk and then..... bust.

Issue #2 - I don't have a top 10 grade on either of them because of their size. They are both too small to give a top 10 grade too. And if you wanna talk about Aaron Daronld being undersized, just stop, he's a once in a generation talent.

If we want Murphy or Newton, I'm fine with taking them, but not at #21. Trade down to around 30 and get Murphy, I can live with that.

IMO they bust b/c teams do reach for DTs on the "planet theory". (It's the same mistake people make in reaching for huge OTs like Mims). The flaw in that theory is that they are reaching for measurables and ignoring skill on tape. IMO it's no different than picking players based on the scouting combine and ignoring the tape. Huge DTs often win in college just b/c they're bigger and stronger than their opponents. In the NFL they rarely have that advantage. The ones who don't bust are the guys who are skilled football players, like Murphy and Newton. It's also why a guy like Donald didn't bust. Yes, he is a generational talent,but he was also a skilled football player.

 

[SF Dolphin Fan]

Indeed! I was referring to the one where the Chiefs' best offense in football only scored nine points, however.

Add: "...Shaquil Barrett, Ndamukong Suh, Vita Vea, and Jason Pierre-Paul, Tampa Bay pressured Mahomes an incredible 21 times, sacking him three times and forcing two interceptions."

I know it's an offensive era, quarterback driven etc.

But one way Miami can match up with Mahomes, Jackson, Allen, Stroud, is to have a defense that can bring the heat from everywhere.

 

[Stoobz]

I know it's an offensive era, quarterback driven etc.

But one way Miami can match up with Mahomes, Jackson, Allen, Stroud, is to have a defense that can bring the heat from everywhere.

I felt like we were so close last year until the fly dropping started.

We talk so much about how bad our offense had been beset by injuries and often forget the defense had a slew, culminating in 6 or 7 starters out (if I recall correctly, we literally ran out of edge rushers).

Injuries are a perpetual voodoo curse or other bugaboo for this team.

 

[lotion]

Bull rush the OL and this offense falls apart. Waiting until the play clock ticks to zero every play doesn't help have not seen any consistent dump off plays in the book. If we don't get a solid (consensus no brainer the best not some douchebag you have to google for the OL) its gonna be more offensive melt downs with McDaniel crying (cause that helps a lot).

 

[SF Dolphin Fan]

I felt like we were so close last year until the fly dropping started.

We talk so much about how bad our offense had been beset by injuries and often forget the defense had a slew, culminating in 6 or 7 starters out (if I recall correctly, we literally ran out of edge rushers).

Injuries are a perpetual voodoo curse or other bugaboo for this team.

Right. Miami was on the wrong side of injuries the past two seasons.

Have to think the Dolphins win the AFC East last year with fewer injuries. From there, who knows?