Hyde5: Five stats that explain the Dolphins turnaround | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Hyde5: Five stats that explain the Dolphins turnaround

Perfect72

It's Only Happened ONCE!
Joined
May 18, 2004
Messages
1,448
Reaction score
665
Location
Florida
The Dolphins look like a different team heading into this December as opposed to a year ago. What’s different? Let’s look at the numbers.

Some numbers are obvious and don't even take into account the full impact of the past six games. Rushing, for instance. The Dolphins average a sixth-best 116 yards rushing this year as opposed to 93.5 yards (23rd) last year. That is a prime difference from a year ago. Here are five others:

1. Opponent third-down conversions. Vance Joseph is doing some good work on the defensive side. A year ago, the Dolphins defense ranked 28[SUP]th[/SUP] in the league by allowing opponents to convert third downs into first downs 43.4 percent of the time. This year, the Dolphins defense ranks first in the league at 33.3 percent. That’s a near-worst-to-first change that tells a big reason for the turnaround.

2. Points per game. Ultimately, this is the only stat that matters. The Dolphins’ offense has gone from 19.4 points a game (27[SUP]th[/SUP] in league) last year to 22.6 this year (17[SUP]th[/SUP]). Let’s not go crazy with this improvement as they scored 24.3 points in 2014. But couple what the offense is doing with what the defense is doing to understand this year’s turnaround. Last year, the defense gave up 24.3 points a game (19[SUP]th[/SUP]). This year, it averages 21.8 points (16[SUP]th[/SUP]). So the offense is scoring 3.2 points more a game and the defense is giving up 2.5 less a game. Together, they explain why they’re 7-4 right now.

3. Ryan Tannehill. No surprise here that every significant number is up. Because it's a year-long view it doesn't even cover the fact he's thrown just one interception on this six-game win streak. Let’s look at his numbers:

2015 vs 2016
Yards/att 7.2 vs 7.8
Rating 88.9 vs 94.4
3rd-down rating 75.7 vs 93.5
4[SUP]th[/SUP] qtr rating 81.2 vs 94.8

More at LINK: http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sports/...aveHyde-blog+(Dave+Hyde+|+Sun+Sentinel+blogs)
 
Wow. Tannehill's third down and fourth quarter rating is excellent.

Just think what the defense can be when the team gets a few more quality players. On offense, just think what a quality tight end could add and one more good guard.

Nice to be headed in the right direction with a coaching staff that knows what they are doing.
 
Wow we might actually have hit the jackpot with Gase and VJ. Both are keeping their units hungry and finding ways to maneuver around numerous injuries on both sides of the ball. Props to those two, hopefully this is the beginning of something great.
 
Defense is first in 3rd down ratings - wow....amazing.

I found this amazing as well. Based on watching every game, I found it hard to believe......throw in some additional gray hairs and maybe an ulcer or two and I feel like we never get off the field on third down.

But it does show you we sometimes don't remember that there are 31 other teams out there that have the similar types of issues that we do. If we are first, I would hate to be a fan of the team that is last.....those guys must all be in therapy.

Congrats to VJ on this amazing stat!
 
5 stats. Albert,Tunsil,Pouncey-Bushrod,James.........when they're all healthy we have a way better chance of winning

Ozzy rules!!
 
5 stats. Albert,Tunsil,Pouncey-Bushrod,James.........when they're all healthy we have a way better chance of winning

Ozzy rules!!

No question. That starting unit means so much to Miami and certainly becomes problematic with injury prone players like Albert and Pouncey. Love them both when they are on the field, but need to really look to add to the offensive line still IMO.
 
The Dolphins look like a different team heading into this December as opposed to a year ago. What’s different? Let’s look at the numbers.

Some numbers are obvious and don't even take into account the full impact of the past six games. Rushing, for instance. The Dolphins average a sixth-best 116 yards rushing this year as opposed to 93.5 yards (23rd) last year. That is a prime difference from a year ago. Here are five others:

1. Opponent third-down conversions. Vance Joseph is doing some good work on the defensive side. A year ago, the Dolphins defense ranked 28[SUP]th[/SUP] in the league by allowing opponents to convert third downs into first downs 43.4 percent of the time. This year, the Dolphins defense ranks first in the league at 33.3 percent. That’s a near-worst-to-first change that tells a big reason for the turnaround.

2. Points per game. Ultimately, this is the only stat that matters. The Dolphins’ offense has gone from 19.4 points a game (27[SUP]th[/SUP] in league) last year to 22.6 this year (17[SUP]th[/SUP]). Let’s not go crazy with this improvement as they scored 24.3 points in 2014. But couple what the offense is doing with what the defense is doing to understand this year’s turnaround. Last year, the defense gave up 24.3 points a game (19[SUP]th[/SUP]). This year, it averages 21.8 points (16[SUP]th[/SUP]). So the offense is scoring 3.2 points more a game and the defense is giving up 2.5 less a game. Together, they explain why they’re 7-4 right now.

3. Ryan Tannehill. No surprise here that every significant number is up. Because it's a year-long view it doesn't even cover the fact he's thrown just one interception on this six-game win streak. Let’s look at his numbers:

2015 vs 2016
Yards/att 7.2 vs 7.8
Rating 88.9 vs 94.4
3rd-down rating 75.7 vs 93.5
4[SUP]th[/SUP] qtr rating 81.2 vs 94.8

More at LINK: http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sports/...aveHyde-blog+(Dave+Hyde+|+Sun+Sentinel+blogs)

And for last week, week 12, here are some great Tannehill stats from ProFootballFocus:


https://www.profootballfocus.com/pro-best-player-at-every-position-in-nfl-week-12/


Quarterback: Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins, 92.8

Ryan Tannehill had his second excellent performance in three weeks for Miami, leading the Dolphins to their sixth-straight win. He completed 66.7 percent of his passes against the 49ers and that’s with three of his ten incompletions coming from dropped balls by his receivers. He was pressured only eight times in the game and from a clean pocket he had a passer rating of 150.3.

It's NICE when we have a clean pocket!!!
 
Toxic Differential

This is one of very few advanced statistics I keep track of. Toxic differential is the combination of three areas.

1) Turnover differential
2) Passing big plays (16+)
3) Rushing big plays (12+)

During the 6 game win streak our turnover differential is +9 (and we've never been in the negative in any game). That is excellent in of itself and could stand alone for a team's turnaround.

But here's more.

Big plays in generic statistical measurement are categorized by any pass or run over 25+ yards. Personally I follow Pete Carroll's philosophy concerning big plays since he has run the NFL's top defense for 6 consecutive years. Carroll defines a big play as a run of 12+ yards and a pass of 16+. Because of this it required some extra research to tabulate the numbers but alas I managed to do so.

Big plays by Run/Pass ratio per game during the 6 game win streak:

Mia: 6/4
Pitt: 2/4
Run +4/Pass 0

Mia: 6/3
Buf: 1/4
Run +5/Pass 0

Mia: 6/3
NYJ: 3/5
Run +3/Pass -1

Mia: 2/4
SD: 3/6
Run -1/Pass -2

Mia: 1/0
LA: 2/3
Run -1/Pass -3

Mia: 2/3
SF: 5/7
Run -3/Pass -3

It's easy to see which games we had in hand as they closed out and which ones came down to the wire just by looking at the big plays. Another interesting aspect of big plays is that if an offense can achieve two within one drive it greatly increases the chance of it ending with a score.

During our win streak our big play run differential was +7 and our big play pass differential was -9. Both of those numbers dipped dramatically for us in the last 3 games due to the injuries along the offensive line. One might even conclude that offensive line play is the largest catalyst for offensive production. That's my sentiment at least.

Though during that period of lack of big plays we were still able to produce a positive turnover ratio which is often related to win column.

Overall, our Toxic differential for the past 6 games (TO: +9, BPR: +7, BPP: -9) is +7 which can be factored in as strong cause for the current win streak.


*PFF sucks.
 
Back
Top Bottom