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Impact of Speed at WR

Fineas

Fineas

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There has been a lot of talk this offseason about Randy Mueller’s love for speed at the WR position. Although it has been subsiding due to the fact that he has not yet worked out (and because he may not work out before the draft), a lot of people were touting Ted Ginn, Jr. for the Fins’ pick at No. 9 based, in large part, on his speed. Conventional wisdom is that speed increases a WRs ability to get open deep and “stretches†the defense to open up the running game and the short passing game by virtue of the safeties playing back.

I have long been skeptical that speed at WR is anywhere near as important as many believe. Part of my skepticism derives from the long line of great, even HOF, WRs who had mediocre to poor tested speed: Jerry Rice, Steve Largent, Michael Irvin, Charlie Joiner, Art Monk, Chad Johnson, Isaac Bruce, etc. Part of it is the huge number of great speed guys who never make it in the NFL, or even really come close to making it. Part of it comes from the fact that I don’t see teams playing very differently just because there is a WR on the field with great speed, which makes sense because most CBs have great speed too. And part of it comes from some simple analysis of the differences between a guy with 4.4 speed and one with 4.6 speed.

Over a 40 yard distance, assuming a relatively constant rate of acceleration, the player will cover a little less than 1 yard every tenth of a second. At the end of a 40 yard dash, the 4.4 guy will be less than 2 yards ahead of the 4.6 guy. In reality, the difference is even smaller, as both guys are moving faster at the end of that race than at the beginning, i.e., if you look at 20 and 40 yard splits, the difference for WRs is always less than 2 seconds for the last 20 yards). When you consider that an NFL CB can play off the WR, pure straight speed will not be enough on its own to create significant separation. If the pass is even slightly underthrown, it will be defensible by the DB.

To evaluate the impact of speed at WR, I looked at all of the WRs since the 1999 draft who ran the 40 in less than 4.4 seconds at the Combine. I used 1999 as the cutoff because that is the first year of NFL Draft Scout’s database. To that group, I added guys such as Chris Chambers, Ashley Lelie, Donte Stallworth and Randy Moss, all of whom were widely reported to have run under 4.35 at non-Combine workouts prior to being drafted. Below is the list of speed receivers in this analysis:

Rondel Menendez (4.24)
Karsten Bailey (4.33)
Kevin Prentiss (4.36)
Chris Cole (4.35)
R. Jay Soward (4.37)
Joey Jamison (4.39)
Santana Moss (4.31)
Chris Chambers (4.33)
Ken-Yon Rambo (4.34)
Jonathan Carter (4.35)
Dave Klemic (4.37)
Joey Getherall (4.38)
Reggie Germany (4.39)
John Capel (4.39)
Aaron Lockett (4.31)
Tim Carter (4.32)
Cliff Russell (4.36)
Javon Walker (4.38)
Tyrone Calico (4.34)
Bethel Johnson (4.38)
Carlos Francis (4.33)
Samie Parker (4.39)
Lee Evans (4.39)
Jerome Mathis (4.28)
Troy Williamson (4.32)
Roscoe Parrish (4.37)
Mark Bradley 4.37
Terrence Murphy (4.39)
Matt Jones (4.37)
Chad Jackson (4.32)
Sinorice Moss (4.38)
Devin Aromadoshu (4.35)
Ashley Lelie
Donte Stallworth
Randy Moss

Of this group, 17 of the 34 players failed to catch a single pass in the NFL last year and a few others (Russell and Sinorice Moss) caught five or fewer passes last year. While many of these guys were just fast guys with marginal (at best) WR skills, it does suggest that NFL teams don’t really believe that the mere presence of a true speedster will significantly “stretch†the defense. Of the remaining 17 guys who played last year, only 2 (Evans and Walker) had 1,000 receiving yards in 2006. In fact, Evans and Walker were the only 2 to have more than 800 receiving yards. Only 4 others (Santana Moss, Chris Chambers, Matt Jones and Donte Stallworth) had more than 600 receiving yards.

I then looked at a few stats that I thought might be affected by the WR’s speed: average yards per reception, average yards after catch, average yards at catch (Y@C), the number of passes thrown to the receiver more than 30 yards from the line of scrimmage, and the number of such deep passes caught by the receiver. Putting together the numbers for this entire group, the numbers are as follows:

Ave./Rec.= 14.5
Y@C/Rec.= 10.2
YAC/Rec.= 4.3
30+ yd. passes attempted = 146
30+ yd. passes completed = 35
Completion % on 30+ yd passes = 24%

For the sake of comparison, I compared this group with the WRs who played last year and who ran the 40 in more than 4.6 seconds at the Combine since 1999. To that group, and in order to have a larger sample, I added the following old geezers who were never very fast and are now near or above 35 years of age: Rod Smith, Keenan McCardell, Keyshawn Johnson, Joe Horn and Isaac Bruce. While I am not positive that all of these guys whould necessary run slower than 4.6 in the 40 under “Combine conditions,†I’d be willing to wager a fair amount they all would. The group of slow receivers for this analysis is the following:

Marty Booker (4.65)
TJ Houshmandzadeh (4.61)
Anquan Boldin (4.72)
Ernest Wilford (4.79)
Michael Clayton (4.67)
Joe Jurevicius (4.66)
Wes Welker (4.61)
Isaac Bruce
Joe Horn
Rod Smith
Keenan McCardell
Keyshawn Johnson

Of these 12 slow guys, 3 had more than 1000 yards receiving (compared to 2 for the fast guys) and 7 had more than 600 yards receiving (compared to 6 for the fast guys). Here’s how these slow WRs did in 2006 in the same stats discussed above for the fast guys:

Ave./Rec.= 12.8
Y@C/Rec.= 8.75
YAC/Rec.= 4.05
30+ yd. passes attempted = 55
30+ yd. passes completed = 13
Completion % on 30+ yd passes = 23.7%

The fast guys and the slow guys compare as follows:

Ave./Rec.= 14.5 (fast) – 12.8 (slow)
Y@C/Rec.= 10.2 (fast) – 8.75 (slow)
YAC/Rec.= 4.3 (fast) – 4.05 (slow)
30+ yd. passes attempted = 146 (fast) – 55 (slow)
30+ yd. passes completed = 35 (fast) – 13 (slow)
Completion % on 30+ yd passes = 24% (fast) – 23.7% (slow)

There are some differences. The fast guys on average catch their passes about 1.5 yards further downfield than the slow guys. The fast guys, on average, gain a little more in YAC than the slow guys, although I doubt this figure is even statistically significant. The combined effect of Y@C and YAC is about a 1.7 yard difference in average yards per reception. Considering that this is a comparison of the very fastest receivers and the very slowest, this is a very small difference in my opinion. For a guy who catches 60 passes in a season, it is roughly 100 yards per season (or 6 yards per game).

It is not surprising to see that teams attempt a lot more deep passes (i.e., more than 30 yards in the air from scrimmage) to the fast guys than the slow guys. What is a little surprising, is that the completion percentage on such passes to the slow guys is almost identical to the completion percentage to the fast guys (23.7% v. 24%). Thus, at least based on 2006 stats, while teams throw deep to fast guys more often, they are not really any more effective at throwing deep to the fast guys than the slow guys.

It is very difficult to statistically evaluate the extent to which a real fast guy opens up the short passing game and/or the running game. There are so many factors involved. Eyeballing the list of fast guys, I don’t think there would be any real trend there. If anyone can think of a good way to evaluate this statistically, let me know.
 
Speed doesn't matter if you can't catch the ball or get open. That's as simple as it gets. Otherwise you might as well just sign some Olympic sprinters. The reason those "slow" WRs are any good is because they either are efficient at getting open or catching the ball. A lot of speed WR's have some issues with catching, finding an open space downfield, or creating separation. In my opinion, a good WR corps needs to have a combination of an efficient tall possession WR and a speedy WR who can get open once in a while and hang onto the ball. I suppose that's why Calvin Johnson rates so high because he's fast, can catch well, and is tall. Someone who holds the strengths of both possession and speed WR's without the character issues of a Randy Moss.
 
I just want to applaud you on this post.. i am a fan who would like to see Ginn in as a Phin (not nec. at #9, but if we traded down), but this was a great post with a lot of research and work done. these are the types of posts that i can respect because of the visible fact that it includes, it's not just your opinion with meaningless comparisons (ex. Ginn is a Williamson clone). it doesnt mean that the speed receiver will not succeed at the NFL level, you are merely stating the probablilities of success and failure. Once again, great job, it's these types of posts that keep me on this board.
 
this is a genuis post. ive always thought this, but even i have been blinded by speed sometimes. like before workouts and everything, i wanted Dewayne Jarrett, Sidney Rice or Dwayne Bowe at 9. not that i want Ginn because i know hes fast now, but now ive questioned myself of why i had those 3 ranked so high. thank you for that smack back to reality Fineas


i think im back to Jarrett at 9.
 
Fineas said:
There has been a lot of talk this offseason about Randy Mueller’s love for speed at the WR position...

...It is very difficult to statistically evaluate the extent to which a real fast guy opens up the short passing game and/or the running game.
Click to expand...

I think Mueller is on to a real simple concept. A really fast player is going to get open or demand extra coverage. A really fast player creates problems for the defense. A really fast player has the ability to make more explosive plays.

Of course, it's more than just being fast. But, great players like PAUL WARFIELD, MARK DUPER, & MARK CLAYTON are incredible game changers because of there speed. If Mueller wants to get us some more of that...I say bring it on!
 
Fineas said:
There has been a lot of talk this offseason about Randy Mueller’s love for speed at the WR position. Although it has been subsiding due to the fact that he has not yet worked out (and because he may not work out before the draft), a lot of people were touting Ted Ginn, Jr. for the Fins’ pick at No. 9 based, in large part, on his speed. Conventional wisdom is that speed increases a WRs ability to get open deep and “stretches†the defense to open up the running game and the short passing game by virtue of the safeties playing back.

I have long been skeptical that speed at WR is anywhere near as important as many believe. Part of my skepticism derives from the long line of great, even HOF, WRs who had mediocre to poor tested speed: Jerry Rice, Steve Largent, Michael Irvin, Charlie Joiner, Art Monk, Chad Johnson, Isaac Bruce, etc. Part of it is the huge number of great speed guys who never make it in the NFL, or even really come close to making it. Part of it comes from the fact that I don’t see teams playing very differently just because there is a WR on the field with great speed, which makes sense because most CBs have great speed too. And part of it comes from some simple analysis of the differences between a guy with 4.4 speed and one with 4.6 speed.

Over a 40 yard distance, assuming a relatively constant rate of acceleration, the player will cover a little less than 1 yard every tenth of a second. At the end of a 40 yard dash, the 4.4 guy will be less than 2 yards ahead of the 4.6 guy. In reality, the difference is even smaller, as both guys are moving faster at the end of that race than at the beginning, i.e., if you look at 20 and 40 yard splits, the difference for WRs is always less than 2 seconds for the last 20 yards). When you consider that an NFL CB can play off the WR, pure straight speed will not be enough on its own to create significant separation. If the pass is even slightly underthrown, it will be defensible by the DB.

To evaluate the impact of speed at WR, I looked at all of the WRs since the 1999 draft who ran the 40 in less than 4.4 seconds at the Combine. I used 1999 as the cutoff because that is the first year of NFL Draft Scout’s database. To that group, I added guys such as Chris Chambers, Ashley Lelie, Donte Stallworth and Randy Moss, all of whom were widely reported to have run under 4.35 at non-Combine workouts prior to being drafted. Below is the list of speed receivers in this analysis:

Rondel Menendez (4.24)
Karsten Bailey (4.33)
Kevin Prentiss (4.36)
Chris Cole (4.35)
R. Jay Soward (4.37)
Joey Jamison (4.39)
Santana Moss (4.31)
Chris Chambers (4.33)
Ken-Yon Rambo (4.34)
Jonathan Carter (4.35)
Dave Klemic (4.37)
Joey Getherall (4.38)
Reggie Germany (4.39)
John Capel (4.39)
Aaron Lockett (4.31)
Tim Carter (4.32)
Cliff Russell (4.36)
Javon Walker (4.38)
Tyrone Calico (4.34)
Bethel Johnson (4.38)
Carlos Francis (4.33)
Samie Parker (4.39)
Lee Evans (4.39)
Jerome Mathis (4.28)
Troy Williamson (4.32)
Roscoe Parrish (4.37)
Mark Bradley 4.37
Terrence Murphy (4.39)
Matt Jones (4.37)
Chad Jackson (4.32)
Sinorice Moss (4.38)
Devin Aromadoshu (4.35)
Ashley Lelie
Donte Stallworth
Randy Moss

Of this group, 17 of the 34 players failed to catch a single pass in the NFL last year and a few others (Russell and Sinorice Moss) caught five or fewer passes last year. While many of these guys were just fast guys with marginal (at best) WR skills, it does suggest that NFL teams don’t really believe that the mere presence of a true speedster will significantly “stretch†the defense. Of the remaining 17 guys who played last year, only 2 (Evans and Walker) had 1,000 receiving yards in 2006. In fact, Evans and Walker were the only 2 to have more than 800 receiving yards. Only 4 others (Santana Moss, Chris Chambers, Matt Jones and Donte Stallworth) had more than 600 receiving yards.

I then looked at a few stats that I thought might be affected by the WR’s speed: average yards per reception, average yards after catch, average yards at catch (Y@C), the number of passes thrown to the receiver more than 30 yards from the line of scrimmage, and the number of such deep passes caught by the receiver. Putting together the numbers for this entire group, the numbers are as follows:

Ave./Rec.= 14.5
Y@C/Rec.= 10.2
YAC/Rec.= 4.3
30+ yd. passes attempted = 146
30+ yd. passes completed = 35
Completion % on 30+ yd passes = 24%

For the sake of comparison, I compared this group with the WRs who played last year and who ran the 40 in more than 4.6 seconds at the Combine since 1999. To that group, and in order to have a larger sample, I added the following old geezers who were never very fast and are now near or above 35 years of age: Rod Smith, Keenan McCardell, Keyshawn Johnson, Joe Horn and Isaac Bruce. While I am not positive that all of these guys whould necessary run slower than 4.6 in the 40 under “Combine conditions,†I’d be willing to wager a fair amount they all would. The group of slow receivers for this analysis is the following:

Marty Booker (4.65)
TJ Houshmandzadeh (4.61)
Anquan Boldin (4.72)
Ernest Wilford (4.79)
Michael Clayton (4.67)
Joe Jurevicius (4.66)
Wes Welker (4.61)
Isaac Bruce
Joe Horn
Rod Smith
Keenan McCardell
Keyshawn Johnson

Of these 12 slow guys, 3 had more than 1000 yards receiving (compared to 2 for the fast guys) and 7 had more than 600 yards receiving (compared to 6 for the fast guys). Here’s how these slow WRs did in 2006 in the same stats discussed above for the fast guys:

Ave./Rec.= 12.8
Y@C/Rec.= 8.75
YAC/Rec.= 4.05
30+ yd. passes attempted = 55
30+ yd. passes completed = 13
Completion % on 30+ yd passes = 23.7%

The fast guys and the slow guys compare as follows:

Ave./Rec.= 14.5 (fast) – 12.8 (slow)
Y@C/Rec.= 10.2 (fast) – 8.75 (slow)
YAC/Rec.= 4.3 (fast) – 4.05 (slow)
30+ yd. passes attempted = 146 (fast) – 55 (slow)
30+ yd. passes completed = 35 (fast) – 13 (slow)
Completion % on 30+ yd passes = 24% (fast) – 23.7% (slow)

There are some differences. The fast guys on average catch their passes about 1.5 yards further downfield than the slow guys. The fast guys, on average, gain a little more in YAC than the slow guys, although I doubt this figure is even statistically significant. The combined effect of Y@C and YAC is about a 1.7 yard difference in average yards per reception. Considering that this is a comparison of the very fastest receivers and the very slowest, this is a very small difference in my opinion. For a guy who catches 60 passes in a season, it is roughly 100 yards per season (or 6 yards per game).

It is not surprising to see that teams attempt a lot more deep passes (i.e., more than 30 yards in the air from scrimmage) to the fast guys than the slow guys. What is a little surprising, is that the completion percentage on such passes to the slow guys is almost identical to the completion percentage to the fast guys (23.7% v. 24%). Thus, at least based on 2006 stats, while teams throw deep to fast guys more often, they are not really any more effective at throwing deep to the fast guys than the slow guys.

It is very difficult to statistically evaluate the extent to which a real fast guy opens up the short passing game and/or the running game. There are so many factors involved. Eyeballing the list of fast guys, I don’t think there would be any real trend there. If anyone can think of a good way to evaluate this statistically, let me know.
Click to expand...

Suffice it to say, that although having a speed receiver may not dramatically change the receiving numbers, it is basic common sense that defense's have to alter the way they defend you, if you possess a receiver that no one on the opposing team can run with.
 
Absolutely superb post Fineas, just as I said when you put it in VIP the other day. These are the kinds of things I read this board for, thank you!
 
Fineas said:
There has been a lot of talk this offseason about Randy Mueller’s love for speed at the WR position. Although it has been subsiding due to the fact that he has not yet worked out (and because he may not work out before the draft), a lot of people were touting Ted Ginn, Jr. for the Fins’ pick at No. 9 based, in large part, on his speed. Conventional wisdom is that speed increases a WRs ability to get open deep and “stretches†the defense to open up the running game and the short passing game by virtue of the safeties playing back.

I have long been skeptical that speed at WR is anywhere near as important as many believe. Part of my skepticism derives from the long line of great, even HOF, WRs who had mediocre to poor tested speed: Jerry Rice, Steve Largent, Michael Irvin, Charlie Joiner, Art Monk, Chad Johnson, Isaac Bruce, etc. Part of it is the huge number of great speed guys who never make it in the NFL, or even really come close to making it. Part of it comes from the fact that I don’t see teams playing very differently just because there is a WR on the field with great speed, which makes sense because most CBs have great speed too. And part of it comes from some simple analysis of the differences between a guy with 4.4 speed and one with 4.6 speed.

Over a 40 yard distance, assuming a relatively constant rate of acceleration, the player will cover a little less than 1 yard every tenth of a second. At the end of a 40 yard dash, the 4.4 guy will be less than 2 yards ahead of the 4.6 guy. In reality, the difference is even smaller, as both guys are moving faster at the end of that race than at the beginning, i.e., if you look at 20 and 40 yard splits, the difference for WRs is always less than 2 seconds for the last 20 yards). When you consider that an NFL CB can play off the WR, pure straight speed will not be enough on its own to create significant separation. If the pass is even slightly underthrown, it will be defensible by the DB.

To evaluate the impact of speed at WR, I looked at all of the WRs since the 1999 draft who ran the 40 in less than 4.4 seconds at the Combine. I used 1999 as the cutoff because that is the first year of NFL Draft Scout’s database. To that group, I added guys such as Chris Chambers, Ashley Lelie, Donte Stallworth and Randy Moss, all of whom were widely reported to have run under 4.35 at non-Combine workouts prior to being drafted. Below is the list of speed receivers in this analysis:

Rondel Menendez (4.24)
Karsten Bailey (4.33)
Kevin Prentiss (4.36)
Chris Cole (4.35)
R. Jay Soward (4.37)
Joey Jamison (4.39)
Santana Moss (4.31)
Chris Chambers (4.33)
Ken-Yon Rambo (4.34)
Jonathan Carter (4.35)
Dave Klemic (4.37)
Joey Getherall (4.38)
Reggie Germany (4.39)
John Capel (4.39)
Aaron Lockett (4.31)
Tim Carter (4.32)
Cliff Russell (4.36)
Javon Walker (4.38)
Tyrone Calico (4.34)
Bethel Johnson (4.38)
Carlos Francis (4.33)
Samie Parker (4.39)
Lee Evans (4.39)
Jerome Mathis (4.28)
Troy Williamson (4.32)
Roscoe Parrish (4.37)
Mark Bradley 4.37
Terrence Murphy (4.39)
Matt Jones (4.37)
Chad Jackson (4.32)
Sinorice Moss (4.38)
Devin Aromadoshu (4.35)
Ashley Lelie
Donte Stallworth
Randy Moss

Of this group, 17 of the 34 players failed to catch a single pass in the NFL last year and a few others (Russell and Sinorice Moss) caught five or fewer passes last year. While many of these guys were just fast guys with marginal (at best) WR skills, it does suggest that NFL teams don’t really believe that the mere presence of a true speedster will significantly “stretch†the defense. Of the remaining 17 guys who played last year, only 2 (Evans and Walker) had 1,000 receiving yards in 2006. In fact, Evans and Walker were the only 2 to have more than 800 receiving yards. Only 4 others (Santana Moss, Chris Chambers, Matt Jones and Donte Stallworth) had more than 600 receiving yards.

I then looked at a few stats that I thought might be affected by the WR’s speed: average yards per reception, average yards after catch, average yards at catch (Y@C), the number of passes thrown to the receiver more than 30 yards from the line of scrimmage, and the number of such deep passes caught by the receiver. Putting together the numbers for this entire group, the numbers are as follows:

Ave./Rec.= 14.5
Y@C/Rec.= 10.2
YAC/Rec.= 4.3
30+ yd. passes attempted = 146
30+ yd. passes completed = 35
Completion % on 30+ yd passes = 24%

For the sake of comparison, I compared this group with the WRs who played last year and who ran the 40 in more than 4.6 seconds at the Combine since 1999. To that group, and in order to have a larger sample, I added the following old geezers who were never very fast and are now near or above 35 years of age: Rod Smith, Keenan McCardell, Keyshawn Johnson, Joe Horn and Isaac Bruce. While I am not positive that all of these guys whould necessary run slower than 4.6 in the 40 under “Combine conditions,†I’d be willing to wager a fair amount they all would. The group of slow receivers for this analysis is the following:

Marty Booker (4.65)
TJ Houshmandzadeh (4.61)
Anquan Boldin (4.72)
Ernest Wilford (4.79)
Michael Clayton (4.67)
Joe Jurevicius (4.66)
Wes Welker (4.61)
Isaac Bruce
Joe Horn
Rod Smith
Keenan McCardell
Keyshawn Johnson

Of these 12 slow guys, 3 had more than 1000 yards receiving (compared to 2 for the fast guys) and 7 had more than 600 yards receiving (compared to 6 for the fast guys). Here’s how these slow WRs did in 2006 in the same stats discussed above for the fast guys:

Ave./Rec.= 12.8
Y@C/Rec.= 8.75
YAC/Rec.= 4.05
30+ yd. passes attempted = 55
30+ yd. passes completed = 13
Completion % on 30+ yd passes = 23.7%

The fast guys and the slow guys compare as follows:

Ave./Rec.= 14.5 (fast) – 12.8 (slow)
Y@C/Rec.= 10.2 (fast) – 8.75 (slow)
YAC/Rec.= 4.3 (fast) – 4.05 (slow)
30+ yd. passes attempted = 146 (fast) – 55 (slow)
30+ yd. passes completed = 35 (fast) – 13 (slow)
Completion % on 30+ yd passes = 24% (fast) – 23.7% (slow)

There are some differences. The fast guys on average catch their passes about 1.5 yards further downfield than the slow guys. The fast guys, on average, gain a little more in YAC than the slow guys, although I doubt this figure is even statistically significant. The combined effect of Y@C and YAC is about a 1.7 yard difference in average yards per reception. Considering that this is a comparison of the very fastest receivers and the very slowest, this is a very small difference in my opinion. For a guy who catches 60 passes in a season, it is roughly 100 yards per season (or 6 yards per game).

It is not surprising to see that teams attempt a lot more deep passes (i.e., more than 30 yards in the air from scrimmage) to the fast guys than the slow guys. What is a little surprising, is that the completion percentage on such passes to the slow guys is almost identical to the completion percentage to the fast guys (23.7% v. 24%). Thus, at least based on 2006 stats, while teams throw deep to fast guys more often, they are not really any more effective at throwing deep to the fast guys than the slow guys.

It is very difficult to statistically evaluate the extent to which a real fast guy opens up the short passing game and/or the running game. There are so many factors involved. Eyeballing the list of fast guys, I don’t think there would be any real trend there. If anyone can think of a good way to evaluate this statistically, let me know.
Click to expand...


While I agree with you in theory. However, Barrion and Hester made enough big plays to get CHicago into the super bowl. Our offense has lacked explosion for a long time now. We need some speed on offense.
 
The posts below is the fromt he VIP version of this thread. I am adding it here because, in pulling the numbers together, I was really struck by how bad offensively almost all of the teams with speed receivers were last year. I'm not suggesting they were bad because they had speed receivers, but I found the numbers fairly striking.

Quote:
Originally Posted by rafael
With all due respect to Fineas' hard work, I think the problem with the analysis is that often players with speed and little else get drafted just b/c of their speed. Since you obviously need more than just speed they often (predictably) fail. I don't see how we learn much by comparing that group to players with more complete receiving skills but lacking speed. You would need to agree on similarly skilled wr where the only difference was speed and then compare them. Then you would need to assess the affect on the offense not just their receptions, yds, etc.

What I was hoping for was that someone had figured out a way to assess how much benefit a team gained by adding a speedy receiver to their arsenal. Something like Buffalo added Lee Evans and after controlling for other factors the offense improved (or didn't) by x amount. I have no idea how to do that or even if it's possible, but short of that I don't think we can numerically arrive at how much impact adding a speedy wr would have.

The statistical analysis includes only those speed guys who had enough receiving skills to actually play a decent amount last year. Those who didn't play much didn't have a lot of receptions and, therefore, didn't affect the averages very much at all. I included all of the guys who ran under 4.4 at the Combine and those that I could recall who ran substantially better than 4.4 at a Pro Day or private workout. I'm sure I left one or two out, but this really was not a subjectively selected sample.

There is no question that, all else being the same (i.e., the players are identical in every single way other than speed), go with the speed guy. Of course, that rarely is the case. I think we can all agree that a guy like Ginn, if he had the all around receiving skills of an Anquan Boldin, Isaac Bruce or Keenan McCardell would be a no-brainer. But he doesn't, and very few burners in the history of the NFL have had that kind of skill set.

It is very hard to isolate the impact of the burners on an offense. There are just so many variables. Atlanta had a good running game last year with Lelie. Of course, they had a good running game before he got there. Denver had a good running game last year with Walker, but they had that before he got there, and the guy Walker replaced, Lelie, was pretty darn fast too. Buffalo's offense has improved overall as Evans has come into his own, but that is likely due as much (or more) to the development of Losman as to the development of Evans. The Redskins offense overall improved in 2005 when Moss got there, but he replaced Coles, who is hardly a slowpoke in his own right, and the Redskins then regressed last year.

It certainly has its flaws, but I guess you could look at the overall offensive production of the teams that have a significant speed guy (i.e., a speed guy who is actually a good receiver and catches a lot of passes). That kind of analysis is not very flattering to the speed guys:

Moss/Washington -- 20th ranked scoring offense
Evans/Buffalo -- 23rd
Walker/Denver -- 17th
Chambers/Miami -- 29th
Moss/Oakland -- 32nd
Stallworth/Philly -- 6th

Some other speed guys that didn't quite fall into this analysis for various reasons:

Galloway/Tampa Bay -- 31st
AJohnson/Houston -- 28th
SSmith/Carolina -- 27th
Williamson/Minnesota -- 26th
Coles, NYJ -- 18th

Stallworth is the only one of these guys who was actually on a good offense. Of course, Philly averaged 30.25 ppg in the 4 games Stallworth missed, compared to 23 ppg in the 12 games he played.

While there are a lot of reasons why these teams/offenses were not very good, these numbers certainly do not suggest that the presence of a true burner really enhances the overall offense.
 
Captain Lou said:
While I agree with you in theory. However, Barrion and Hester made enough big plays to get CHicago into the super bowl. Our offense has lacked explosion for a long time now. We need some speed on offense.
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But Hester contributed nothing on offense and Berrian ran a 4.58 at the Combine and a 4.57 at his Pro Day. That puts him a lot closer to a "slow" guy than a "fast" guy. I guess it shows that you don't have to have a great (or even good) 40 time to be a deep threat.
 
Fineas said:
...It certainly has its flaws, but I guess you could look at the overall offensive production of the teams that have a significant speed guy (i.e., a speed guy who is actually a good receiver and catches a lot of passes). That kind of analysis is not very flattering to the speed guys:

Moss/Washington -- 20th ranked scoring offense
Evans/Buffalo -- 23rd
Walker/Denver -- 17th
Chambers/Miami -- 29th
Moss/Oakland -- 32nd
Stallworth/Philly -- 6th

Some other speed guys that didn't quite fall into this analysis for various reasons:

Galloway/Tampa Bay -- 31st
AJohnson/Houston -- 28th
SSmith/Carolina -- 27th
Williamson/Minnesota -- 26th
Coles, NYJ -- 18th

Stallworth is the only one of these guys who was actually on a good offense. Of course, Philly averaged 30.25 ppg in the 4 games Stallworth missed, compared to 23 ppg in the 12 games he played.

While there are a lot of reasons why these teams/offenses were not very good, these numbers certainly do not suggest that the presence of a true burner really enhances the overall offense.
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That's true...the presence of a speed guy or equally a possession guy did not really enhance those offenses. Unfortunately, there is a symbiotic relationship between the WR, QB, Offensive line, and running game.

When given a choice, I would take the top speed guys. Give me a roster of :

1) Marvin Harrison
2) Andre Johnson
3) Torry Holt
4) Steve Smith
5) Chad Johnson

I'd take a lineup like that any day over the top possession receivers.
 
Outstanding posts and I give you 5 stars for the research alone.

The only problem that I see with your research is that you limit it players runnning 4.3 40s. Players running in the low 4.4s are also considered speedster. Nevertheless, it's still some outstanding work on your part.

I also noticed the players you used as "slow" such as Marty Booker, TJ Houshmandzadeh, Michael Clayton all have a "fast" player opposite of them.

Marty Booker's yards per catch has been high for most of his career because of his strength and ability to run after the catch. The same could be said for Anquan Bolden and a few others. Although their ypc may be high it doesn't mean they stretch the field.
 
Fineas said:
But Hester contributed nothing on offense and Berrian ran a 4.58 at the Combine and a 4.57 at his Pro Day. That puts him a lot closer to a "slow" guy than a "fast" guy. I guess it shows that you don't have to have a great (or even good) 40 time to be a deep threat.
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Actually what Hester does in the return game is contributing to the offense because of field position and scores.

I'm not sure where you got Berrian numbers from because I thought he ran a 4.38 on grass a few weeks after the Combine.
 
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