------ In Depth Breakdown: Playoff Chances

[Mile High Fin]

First off, we will have to go at least 4-1 to finish 10-6. That is a bare minimum requirement, but that may still not be enough.
It looks likely that we will need to go 5-0 (11-5) to get in the playoffs (because we'd probably lose most tie-breakers at 10-6).

Indy is virtually a lock for #5 seed, with an easy schedule remaining:
@Cle, Cin, Det, @Jac, Ten
Good chance they go 4-1 (11-5), but even if they only go 3-2, they'll be 10-6; and their conference record (first tie-breaker) is better than ours so far (6-2 vs. our 5-4 so far).



So, the battle will come down to the #6 seed:

Baltimore has a BRUTAL schedule remaining:
@Cin, Was, Pit, @Dal, Jac
If they go 2-3, they will end up 9-7.
Assuming they beat Cin & Jac, they MUST lose to Was, Pit & Dal. If they beat any of those 3 teams, then they will be 10-6, and win the tie-breaker against us (head-to-head).

New England has these games left:
Pit, @Sea, @Oak, Ari, @Buf
If they lose 2, they will be 10-6, then we'd go to tie-breakers:
1. split head-to-head;
2. division record (they are 3-2 now; we are 2-2 now);
3. common games (they're 7-3 now; we are 6-3 now);
4. conference record (we're both 5-4 now);
5. strength of victory (whatever this is???).

 

[Dolphin Dave]

Very good info. Thanks man.

Bottom line is that regardless of weather we make the play offs or not, I am still proud of this team. We finally have something to look forward too.

 

[PAT13]

First off, we will have to go at least 4-1 to finish 10-6. That is a bare minimum requirement, but that may still not be enough.
It looks likely that we will need to go 5-0 (11-5) to get in the playoffs (because we'd probably lose most tie-breakers at 10-6).

Indy is virtually a lock for #5 seed, with an easy schedule remaining:
@Cle, Cin, Det, @Jac, Ten
Good chance they go 4-1 (11-5), but even if they only go 3-2, they'll be 10-6; and their conference record (first tie-breaker) is better than ours so far (6-2 vs. our 5-4 so far).



So, the battle will come down to the #6 seed:

Baltimore has a BRUTAL schedule remaining:
@Cin, Was, Pit, @Dal, Jac
If they go 2-3, they will end up 9-7.
Assuming they beat Cin & Jac, they MUST lose to Was, Pit & Dal. If they beat any of those 3 teams, then they will be 10-6, and win the tie-breaker against us (head-to-head).

New England has these games left:
Pit, @Sea, @Oak, Ari, @Buf
If they lose 2, they will be 10-6, then we'd go to tie-breakers:
1. split head-to-head;
2. division record (they are 3-2 now; we are 2-2 now);
3. common games (they're 7-3 now; we are 6-3 now);
4. conference record (we're both 5-4 now);
5. strength of victory (whatever this is???).

Thanks bro. Good analysis. It doesn't change a thing for now but the common games come after the conference record. Everything is still possible. Go Phins.

 

[amir7]

thanks man, it looks like to me we have to win out basically

 

[PAT13]

Oups, the NE loss must have had some effects inside my brain! Your are right, common games come before conference games. Sorry bro. I owe you an apology!

 

[damian]

First off, we will have to go at least 4-1 to finish 10-6. That is a bare minimum requirement, but that may still not be enough.
It looks likely that we will need to go 5-0 (11-5) to get in the playoffs (because we'd probably lose most tie-breakers at 10-6).

Indy is virtually a lock for #5 seed, with an easy schedule remaining:
@Cle, Cin, Det, @Jac, Ten
Good chance they go 4-1 (11-5), but even if they only go 3-2, they'll be 10-6; and their conference record (first tie-breaker) is better than ours so far (6-2 vs. our 5-4 so far).



So, the battle will come down to the #6 seed:

Baltimore has a BRUTAL schedule remaining:
@Cin, Was, Pit, @Dal, Jac
If they go 2-3, they will end up 9-7.
Assuming they beat Cin & Jac, they MUST lose to Was, Pit & Dal. If they beat any of those 3 teams, then they will be 10-6, and win the tie-breaker against us (head-to-head).

New England has these games left:
Pit, @Sea, @Oak, Ari, @Buf
If they lose 2, they will be 10-6, then we'd go to tie-breakers:
1. split head-to-head;
2. division record (they are 3-2 now; we are 2-2 now);
3. common games (they're 7-3 now; we are 6-3 now);
4. conference record (we're both 5-4 now);
5. strength of victory (whatever this is???).

The head to head tie-breaker doesn't count if there is a 3 way tie. So if New England, Baltimore and us have a 10-6 record then it would be based on conference record. I think all three lead that tie-breaker with us though.

 

[PhinsPhan122]

The head to head tie-breaker doesn't count if there is a 3 way tie. So if New England, Baltimore and us have a 10-6 record then it would be based on conference record. I think all three lead that tie-breaker with us though.

incorrect

the first step in breaking three way ties is to eliminate all but one team from any division. that means the first thing that would be applied is a tiebreaker between us and the pats

 

[damian]

incorrect

the first step in breaking three way ties is to eliminate all but one team from any division. that means the first thing that would be applied is a tiebreaker between us and the pats

I'm sorry; I was referring to Baltimore’s tie-breaker with us, via the direct win, wont count if there is a 3 way tie. I should have been more specific.

 

[rickyfan85]

5. strength of victory (whatever this is???).

Strength of victory is "the winning percentage of opponents that were beaten"

I think this would actually favor us, if it gets to that point that is.

 

[NYCphan]

I'm sorry; I was referring to Baltimore’s tie-breaker with us, via the direct win, wont count if there is a 3 way tie. I should have been more specific.

In a Fins-Ravens-Colts tiebreak, yes: our loss would be tossed out, as would Indy's win over Baltimore. (Had the Ravens won or lost both those game, it would be a different story.)

Even so, it wouldn't save our chances, since the next tiebreak would be AFC record. The Colts have only one AFC loss, so the most they could have would be three (at 10-6). Baltimore has three now, so if they've picked up one more, the Colts get the first wildcard.

After that, we start from scratch with Miami and Baltimore, and this time their win does count, and we're out.

But what if Baltimore loses its two NFC games, and wins the first tiebreak over Indy after we're eliminated? Still doesn't matter, because we're back to a tiebreak with Indy, with three AFC losses, and Miami already has four.

Bottom line appears to be that winning a wildcard at 10-6 requires a Ravens meltdown that leaves them 9-7. Plus of course we'd have to get past the Pats.

 

[sleek]

I think the #5 spot will go to the Colts. The #6 will go to us at 10-6 and here is how:

Baltimore loses to WASH,PIT,DAL,& JAC and end up 8-8.

New England loses to PIT,ARI, & BUF and end up 9-7.

MIAMI DROPS ONE ALONG THE WAY AND END UP 10-6 AND TAKES THE #6 SPOT.

 

[slosh13]

lets just win out so we dont have to worry about it!!!!!!! GO PITTSBURGH!!!

 

[Mile High Fin]

I think the #5 spot will go to the Colts. The #6 will go to us at 10-6 and here is how:

Baltimore loses to WASH,PIT,DAL,& JAC and end up 8-8.

New England loses to PIT,ARI, & BUF and end up 9-7.

MIAMI DROPS ONE ALONG THE WAY AND END UP 10-6 AND TAKES THE #6 SPOT.

I hope you're right. It's very unlikely, but we can hope.

 

[WVDolphan]

The head to head tie-breaker doesn't count if there is a 3 way tie. So if New England, Baltimore and us have a 10-6 record then it would be based on conference record. I think all three lead that tie-breaker with us though.

Wrong. When in a 3 way tie for a wild card spot, where 2 teams are from the same division, the divisional tie is broken first. Then the team that prevails in that tiebreaker goes to a heads up tiebreaker with the remaining team. Thats why its so imperative to finish at least 2nd in your division. If you finish 3rd, the only way to get in is if your division takes both wildcard spots. Thats why this loss was so brutal last week. We had to have it. Now we have to win at NY.

Basically we must beat out both the Patsies and the Ravens. I think we can see the Colts are going to win 11 games.(How much does it hurt right now that the Colts greased out those two wins vs. Houston and Minnesota earlier this year. Both MIRACLE comeback wins.)

As it stands right now if we go 10-6, our loss in the next 5 is going to have to be one of those NFC games(which is unlikely). We are going to have to beat Buffalo and NY to get in. Even if we do that to get to 10, we still dont have much of a shot. Last week really killed us. Pretty much, we need to win out. We have just as good of a chance to win the division right now as we do to get a wildcard. We have to beat the Jets.

 

[WVDolphan]

I'm sorry; I was referring to Baltimore’s tie-breaker with us, via the direct win, wont count if there is a 3 way tie. I should have been more specific.

It will count. If Baltimore gets to 10 wins we can forget about it unless we win 11. Even if its a 3 way tie, like had to be explained to you, the division tie will be broken first. So lets so its a 3 way tie with NE, MIA, and Baltimore. For arguments sake, we take out NE and get awarded 2nd place in the division. Well then they would then go to the tiebreak procedure from the start with Baltimore and Mia.......Baltimore won head to head.....they get the spot and NE and MIA both sit at home. End of story.

Now if the Colts only get to 10, and those 3 teams have 10 as well, it would be tricky. Then they will again break the NE, MIA tie first. The team that prevails in that will be thrown into a 3way tiebreak mix with the other 2 teams. Then we may have a shot.

But, honestly, I dont see Indy getting less than 11 unless they suffer some key injuries. Their schedule is SOFT. Lets hope Tennessee loses some more so they dont have everything locked up going into that last week and play the Colts tough.

I think Baltimore will scratch out 10 wins too, but ya never know. We can hope.

I know if we beat Barfallo, we will have a shot at it at least. If we beat Barfallo I can see us being 10-5 going to NY and at least getting a shot at it. It will be tough though. We can always hope NY keeps winning and somehow gets into a position to have their seed locked at either #1 or #2. Then they might rest some players. But, hey there is a good shot that if we get to 10-5 we could be playing a win and youre division champs, lose and youre at home for the playoffs game in NY. The Jests could easily lose twice before that game. Lets hope that thing is at night though so that its possible the Jets already know their seed is locked in if they keep winning. Then they may sit people.