Intangibles or Luck? | The 2017 Dolphins Should be 2-4 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Intangibles or Luck? | The 2017 Dolphins Should be 2-4

Is it intangibles or luck?

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<O>

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Since 2004, the year the league changed the rules to favor the offensive passing game, yards per pass attempt (YPA) differential and turnover differential have predicted 89% of the variation in win percentage in the NFL.

The 2017 Dolphins have a YPA differential of -1.6 yards, which places them in the 13th percentile in the league, meaning that 87% of the teams in the league (28 of the 32 of them) have been better than them in this area in 2017.

They have a turnover differential of -2, placing them just below the league average. That of course is nothing special.

Based on the above numbers, using an equation generated by the data from the 2004 through 2016 seasons, the Dolphins' predicted win percentage this season is 28.6%, which translates to 1.7 wins out of six games, or a 2-4 record when rounding up.

We all know they're 4-2, however.

So, what says the forum? Are the Dolphins doing it with some sort of intangibles, or is it mere luck?

If it's intangibles, what are they?
 
based on what I've seen from the qb position on tape to date we are far exceeding expectations

our level of qb play should leave you 2 and 4 to date or worse...

so this all comes down to the man that I see as a +2 wins coach in adam gase...for my money he's the difference here
 
hoops said:
based on what I've seen from the qb position on tape to date we are far exceeding expectations

our level of qb play should leave you 2 and 4 to date or worse...

so this all comes down to the man that I see as a +2 wins coach in adam gase...for my money he's the difference here
Click to expand...


That poses an interesting question.

Is Gase a +2 wins coach out of every 16 games, or out of every six?

If he's a +2 wins coach out of every 16, he's already used them up this year.
 
Our defense is winning us games. Call it what you want, but it’s a lot better than most people expected, except for me cuz I’m a huge homer lol.
 
TannDaMan17 said:
Our defense is winning us games. Call it what you want, but it’s a lot better than most people expected, except for me cuz I’m a huge homer lol.
Click to expand...


I feel compelled to challenge that.

The defense is surrendering an opposing passer rating of 102.9. Since 2004, there has been but one team of the 19 that have surrendered passer ratings between 99 and 105 on a season, that has a winning record.

Surrendering an opposing passer rating between 99 and 105 is associated with a 4-12 regular season record on average.

If that continues for the 2017 Dolphins, the team would be expected to win very few, if any, additional games.
 
<O> said:
That poses an interesting question.

Is Gase a +2 wins coach out of every 16 games, or out of every six?

If he's a +2 wins coach out of every 16, he's already used them up this year.
Click to expand...


I think he's a plus 2 over 16 games and you already used one of them up with that Atlanta win...I know a lot of coaches who would have lost that game...especially the ones managing the game and situational side of things...

but it does need to be said that miamis on it's plan c at qb and that plan c is a better option than any 3rd option any other team in the league has...so we may be staying a float a little longer than just about any other team would...how long can it last? probably depends on how the defense plays the final 10 and how many times the qb grades out as a minus grade...and under cutler we dodged mad bullets in terms of qb play beating us....it should have multiple times although he does limit the turnovers but I again see that as gase the play caller and game manager doing an excellent job of "limiting the qb exposure"

that's why the top grade in the building for my money thru 6 games is adam gase
 
so to me there are 3 games that are up for interpretation...Chargers, Falcons, and Jets.

Chargers: we played a very good second half, but it was ultimately decided because Younghoe Koo missed FGs. LUCK
Falcons: coaching made adjustments, defense played lights out in the second half, Cutler played great after halftime, and a playmaker made a big play. Intangibles
Jets: this is the difficult one. Miami again stepped up and played lights out in the 4th quarter. Matt Moore coming in sparked the team. the luck factor is Moore coming in and the asinine play call that put Bobby McCain in position to end the game. that said having a vet back-up who understands the offense and the defense being in the right position took advantage of opportunities given to them. Intangibles

Intangibles 2-1
 
<O> said:
I feel compelled to challenge that.

The defense is surrendering an opposing passer rating of 102.9. Since 2004, there has been but one team of the 19 that have surrendered passer ratings between 99 and 105 on a season, that has a winning record.

Surrendering an opposing passer rating between 99 and 105 is associated with a 4-12 regular season record on average.

If that continues for the 2017 Dolphins, the team would be expected to win very few, if any, additional games.
Click to expand...

Our run D and ppg are on point. Far more important than passer ratings
 
and when I say a +2 I don't mean you look at the schedule and just check two more boxes...I mean when the bullets are live in game and things are getting tight and he's managing the game as a play caller and game manager and situational play he knows when to take chances and when not to and how to manage the clock and his personnel etc.

and for my money that one score record with this head coach leading the league is completely because he is in lock step with the feel of the game...I rarely see something where I think he goofed...draws on 2nd and long instead of exposing the oline for instance in pass pro or the screen game to try and regain the sticks etc...he's not just gonna take 7 step deep drops and let teams tee off on the qb all game long...he knows how to hide weakness and limit exposures...

he opened up that jets game in the 2nd half down 14 cause he had to...he's in sync with the scoreboard about as well as any coach I've seen frankly...and his red zone play calling and play design is top shelf stuff...the execution isn't always there
 
We only got lucky in the Chargers game. And even then I wouldn't call it "luck". Football is a game of execution. We made our FG, they didn't.

In the end we are 4-2 because we've made the plays we've had to make at the right time, while the other teams have failed to do so. Again, it's not even intangibles, it's simple execution.

The problem with this team is that we've been shitty for so long. So having a 13-4 record in our last 17 games to most people is just us getting "lucky". That's the only explanation they have for it. And you hear it all over the place on social media.

But just imagine if the Patriots lost Brady before the season and still were able to be 4-2 after six games. Imagine them making the plays we've been making on defense the last 3 games, with the sack and forced fumble by Kiko, the INT by Reshad Jones and the INT by Bobby McCain. All you would be hearing 24/7 is how amazing their coaches are. How their defense is badass for making such plays at crucial times.

Alas, we're the Miami Dolphins. So of course people look at us and say, "How can they be 4-2 if they're so BAD???"

But as long as we keep winning, I'm fine with people doubting us. This team knows how to win games in ways that other teams don't.

Like our players motto says, "We are not normal", and that's okay.
 
It is intangibles, with a little luck sprinkled at the end. As for what are those intangibles, it's a whole mess of things...

-Making the right adjustments after the half.

-Refusing as a team to quit.

-Gutting it out at the end, and doing whatever was needed to win.

-Taking it an extra level concentration wise, and absolutely make not more mistakes.

-Taking it an extra level, and playing even harder, with better execution.
 
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