Interesting article in USA about Grier's Drafting thus far

[DOLFANMIKE]

How the Dolphins have already resolved their biggest NFL draft issue

The Miami Dolphins have been a team that hasn’t been able to make the most of the NFL Draft in recent memory. The skeptics of the Dolphins’ current plan will point to Miami’s barr…

dolphinswire.usatoday.com

"The skeptics of the Dolphins’ current plan will point to Miami’s barren roster as a sign that general manager Chris Grier isn’t qualified to run the Dolphins’ rebuild and that allowing him to make selections is a risky proposition.

That’s nonsense. And here’s why. Because Grier, who has served as Miami’s general manager (although he technically worked under Mike Tannenbaum until January 2019) has actually done a nice job of drafting talent during his tenure. Yes, Grier was the general manager for the unfortunate selection of defensive end Charles Harris in the 1st-round of the 2017 NFL Draft. It was a misstep. A big one, too. Had Miami elected to go a different direction at the same position, Miami may be home to 2019 NFL Defensive Player of the Year candidate T.J. Watt.

The Dolphins have added quality NFL players via the draft under Grier’s watch — his drafts have produced 2019 Pro Bowlers in OT Laremy Tunsil and FS Minkah Fitzpatrick. The fact that Miami is no longer in possession of both players isn’t really the point — because the Dolphins have seen an organizational shift to rebuild and upon hearing the trade price of Tunsil, Grier felt the additional picks were of greater value to the team than Tunsil. And of course Fitzpatrick didn’t buy in to Brian Flores’ defensive role. Could Miami have strong-armed the 2018 1st-round pick into staying? Sure. But a clean break for a pick that will probably fall around 20 in the 2020 NFL Draft order is a pretty darn good job from Grier when considering Miami’s trade market for Fitzpatrick was compromised by the reports of Fitzpatrick’s displeasure with his usage in Miami.

Grier’s drafting has also added cornerback Xavien Howard, linebackers Jerome Baker and Raekwon McMillan to the mix on defense. Tight end Mike Gesicki is looking much more like the value Miami envisioned when they drafted him in the 2nd-round as he nears the end of his second season in Miami. WR/KR Jakeem Grant and defensive tackle Davon Godchaux were late-round steals for Miami back in 2016 and 2017 respectively, as well.

But the real problem for the Dolphins during Grier’s tenure hasn’t been his picks. It’s been the lack of volume at the top of the NFL Draft. Chris Grier has made just 9 selections in the top-75 in the NFL Draft order over the course of four NFL Drafts.

That’s a problem. Because, as logic would indicate, the more ammunition one has at the top of the draft order, the more likely the probabilities are going to swing to your favor and bear more fruit. Consider some of the other teams in the NFL and how much ammunition their decision makers have had in the NFL over the course of the past four drafts."

 

[NBP81]

But the real problem for the Dolphins during Grier’s tenure hasn’t been his picks. It’s been the lack of volume at the top of the NFL Draft. Chris Grier has made just 9 selections in the top-75 in the NFL Draft order over the course of four NFL Drafts.

If your team isnt bottom 3rd of the league, you're getting 8 of them over 4 years, gimme a break man...

 

[Pachyderm_Wave]

The problem with the Charles Harris pick isn't that he missed, it's the caliber of the miss that means something. Every GM is going to have misses, but all misses aren't the same.

It was my opinion that Miami should draft Tre'Davious White or T.J. Watt, and I said that before Miami picked Charles Harris.

I don't care where Mike Mayock or any of the other draftniks had Harris ranked, he wasn't a 1st round type of player. He had never posted double digit sacks in college, and couldn't execute a run fit to save his life. Furthermore, he went out and made up for all of it by testing like a 6th rounder in all of the critical metrics for a pass rusher.

But here's the point - Miami literally could've picked anybody in the next 50 picks after Charles Harris and it would've been a better pick. Even Rueben Foster would've been a better pick and he's been kicked out of the league.

Bottom line is, Miami zeroed in on one of the worst players in the entire draft to spend the 22nd overall pick on. There's just no spinning that one.

 

[DOLFANMIKE]

The problem with the Charles Harris pick isn't that he missed, it's the caliber of the miss that means something. Every GM is going to have misses, but all misses aren't the same.

It was my opinion that Miami should draft Tre'Davious White or T.J. Watt, and I said that before Miami picked Charles Harris.

I don't care where Mike Mayock or any of the other draftniks had Harris ranked, he wasn't a 1st round type of player. He had never posted double digit sacks in college, and couldn't execute a run fit to save his life. Furthermore, he went out and made up for all of it by testing like a 6th rounder in all of the critical metrics for a pass rusher.

But here's the point - Miami literally could've picked anybody in the next 50 picks after Charles Harris and it would've been a better pick. Even Rueben Foster would've been a better pick and he's been kicked out of the league.

Bottom line is, Miami zeroed in on one of the worst players in the entire draft to spend the 22nd overall pick on. There's just no spinning that one.

Yeah I was disappointed in the Charles Harris pick too. I didn't think his film was anything to be excited about but I hoped I was wrong. They talked him up like a Cam Wake type but I never saw that kind of explosiveness or strength.

 

[Feverdream]

The problem with the Charles Harris pick isn't that he missed, it's the caliber of the miss that means something. Every GM is going to have misses, but all misses aren't the same.

It was my opinion that Miami should draft Tre'Davious White or T.J. Watt, and I said that before Miami picked Charles Harris.

I don't care where Mike Mayock or any of the other draftniks had Harris ranked, he wasn't a 1st round type of player. He had never posted double digit sacks in college, and couldn't execute a run fit to save his life. Furthermore, he went out and made up for all of it by testing like a 6th rounder in all of the critical metrics for a pass rusher.

But here's the point - Miami literally could've picked anybody in the next 50 picks after Charles Harris and it would've been a better pick. Even Rueben Foster would've been a better pick and he's been kicked out of the league.

Bottom line is, Miami zeroed in on one of the worst players in the entire draft to spend the 22nd overall pick on. There's just no spinning that one.

As did, every other analyst.

Yes, you got it right... but very few did.

 

[Manning]

i don’t think any draft will top his 2019. As early as it is I can’t see a long term starter in that bunch except Wilkins who doesn’t even play a prime position. Good DTs could be had sheep in the nfl. I think this will go down as one of the worst drafts since that 2013 draft. But I’m sure fans will find excuses for it

 

[Feverdream]

i don’t think any draft will top his 2019. As early as it is I can’t see a long term starter in that bunch except Wilkins who doesn’t even play a prime position. Good DTs could be had sheep in the nfl. I think this will go down as one of the worst drafts since that 2013 draft. But I’m sure fans will find excuses for it

Well... I disagree with you about DTs, but let's cut right to it.

1) you are making the same mistake that those who hated Gesicki did... not waiting long enough to see how it works out...

2) If Rosen wins job. That draft was masterful.

 

[Manning]

Well... I disagree with you about DTs, but let's cut right to it.

1) you are making the same mistake that those who hated Gesicki did... not waiting long enough to see how it works out...

2) If Rosen wins job. That draft was masterful.

Yes if Rosen turns out to be the starter for the next 10 years your right. But I don’t think he’s in the plans

 

[Feverdream]

Yes if Rosen turns out to be the starter for the next 10 years your right. But I don’t think he’s in the plans

Dieter and Van Ginkle are also part of the equation, as are Preston Williams and Needham.

All Grier acquisitions.

Feel free to bash this class... in 2022 or so. Doing it before that? Well... it's like I kept telling the Gesicki bashers... you are being impatient and a bit thoughtless.

For the last year, I've been trying to get some of them to acknowledge that it takes awhile to rate a class.

...they responded that he was garbage... and 'shaped all wrong'.

I try not to laugh at them, but it's hard.

 

[Manning]

We will see. If we draft a QB early this yr it will tell you all you need to know about their plans with Rosen and it will be a waisted 2nd and 4th round pick. Dieter is not showing any progression and is one of the worst G in the NFL. Preston and needham are Good finds but not part of the draft. They are FAs.

 

[The Bopkin]

I went back and did some checking on Charles Harris.
Apparently he was an under the radar guy, then nailed his pro day after testing poorly at the combine.
Several mocks had him top of 2nd round back then.
I guess the moral of the story: Late 1st round prospects, ifone tests poorly at one place then tests well at another, buyer beware.

Pro Day Tour: All Eyes On Pass Rusher Charles Harris At Missouri Workouts

www.dallascowboys.com

 

[SCOTTY]

We will see. If we draft a QB early this yr it will tell you all you need to know about their plans with Rosen and it will be a waisted 2nd and 4th round pick. Dieter is not showing any progression and is one of the worst G in the NFL. Preston and needham are Good finds but not part of the draft. They are FAs.

What exactly does drafting a qb in the 1st mean for Rosen? I will bet you $ whatever you respond is wrong.
You're evaluation of this draft is premature. You have no idea how these players are going to progress.

 

[Manning]

What exactly does drafting a qb in the 1st mean for Rosen? I will bet you $ whatever you respond is wrong.
You're evaluation of this draft is premature. You have no idea how these players are going to progress.

Really dude? If we draft a quarterback in the first round it’s pretty obvious that the Rosen trade was a bust

 

[Awsi Dooger]

As did, every other analyst.

Yes, you got it right... but very few did.

Very few? That's preposterous. Charles Harris' name was smack atop all the bust projections due to analytics. They weren't mild warnings. Slimm touched on that in his post. Defensive end has become the one position in which specific test scores are proving correct time and again...in both directions.

Here is what Football Outsiders wrote in its annual SacKSEER column:

SackSEER 2017

Our numbers back up the conventional wisdom when it comes to edge rushers in the 2017 draft: this Garrett kid is Myles ahead of the competition.

www.footballoutsiders.com

BUST ALERT
Charles Harris, Missouri
SackSEER Projection: 14.8 Sacks Through Year 5
SackSEER Rating: 17.5%

Every year, SackSEER breaks from conventional wisdom on at least one highly-rated edge rusher, and this year that player is definitely Charles Harris. From a SackSEER perspective, it is hard to see what would justify Harris as a first- or second-round pick, as most analysts project. Harris was not unusually productive, nor was there any spike in production near the end of his college career. Harris had nine sacks in 12 games during his junior year. Those are certainly not horrible numbers, but they are not significantly better than numbers posted by Tyus Bowser, Takkarist McKinley, or Jordan Willis.

Harris is undersized at 253 pounds, but he had a combine more consistent with a 280-pound run-stuffer. Harris was below average in every drill that matters to SackSEER, including a 4.82-second 40-yard dash and a 7.47-second 3-cone time. Why is an undersized edge rusher with vanilla college production and poor workout numbers considered a potential first-round pick? One answer is that he has a good reputation for athleticism despite his poor combine performance. The anecdotal evidence of what a great difference between "perceived" and "measured" athleticism means is mixed. Players such as Carlos Dunlap and Jason Pierre-Paul were lauded as athletic "freaks" who put up mostly average to below-average workout numbers, but nonetheless became strong players. On the other hand, Quinton Coples and Da'Quan Bowers, two players who had reputations as "freakish" athletes, posted poor workout numbers and ultimately had little impact on the NFL level.

 

[SCOTTY]

Really dude? If we draft a quarterback in the first round it’s pretty obvious that the Rosen trade was a bust

Yes really. I really think you are wrong.
I believe Miami drafts a qb in the first while retaining Rosen. Doesn't mean bust. Not yet.
Patience. Development. Two words that many posters simply don't understand.