Another piece about the QBs this year projections, Ewers 96 percent bust chance jeez lmao
With that background, I present this year's QBASE 2.0 projections for the 2025 quarterback class. QBASE 2.0 is a combination of Andrew Healy's (2015) original QBASE model and Alexandre Olbrecht and Jeremy Rosen's (2018) functional mobility model. It factors in a quarterback's college passing statistics adjusted for the quality of his teammates and opponents, plus how many years he started in college. It also incorporates his rushing ability, and while it rewards improvements over time, it penalizes one-year wonders.
The quarterbacks below are listed in order of our Scouts Inc. rankings. Interpreting each quarterback's projection is straightforward, a value of zero Total defense-adjusted yards above replacement per attempt (TDYAR/A) is replacement-level, whereas any value over 1.5 is indicative of a Hall of Fame career. We run 50,000 simulations to provide a distribution of the number of times that each quarterback falls within a particular range.
Here are our projections for the top seven QBs in the 2025 class:
Ward is QBASE's top quarterback in 2025, having just set the career FBS touchdown passes record with 158. Still, he does not stand out as much as Williams and Daniels from last year's class. He generally checks off the boxes QBASE likes, such as a 67.2% completion percentage and 3.4 rushing yards per attempt in 2024. His numbers were not comparable to Daniels in 2023 (72.2% and 8.4, respectively), however, nor did he have Williams' three excellent seasons of production.
While Ward had a five-year college career due to extra COVID-19 eligibility, he was not seen as a first-round prospect before this draft cycle. It is understandable for the Titans to use the No.1 overall pick on him, but it is also unlikely that he would have gone in the top three picks last year.
Ward is not the only record holder in this class, as Sanders set the career FBS completion percentage record with 71.8%. Sanders was more accurate than Ward, but his minus-0.5 rushing yards per attempt in 2024 (minus-0.6 in his career) worked against his superior accuracy.
If Sanders' projected draft position were the same as Ward's, their QBASE projections would be closer. But it's important to note that in the most recent classes (from 2018 to the present), mobile quarterbacks like Ward have performed better in the NFL.
Proceeding to the likely non-top 10 picks, Dart had a very impressive 2024 season. His completion percentage (69.3%) and rushing yards per attempt (4.0) were better than Ward's, and his completion percentage was nearly as high as Sanders'.
However, scouts are less high on Dart in part because of his relative lack of size (6-foot-2, 223 pounds) and arm strength, as well as the one-read offense he ran under coach Lane Kiffin. It is worth noting that aside from Drake Maye and J.J. McCarthy, last year's quarterbacks did not come from pro-style offenses, yet their rookie years ranged from solid to generational.
Having spent seven years in college thanks to COVID-19 eligibility and a medical redshirt, Shough is the class' oldest quarterback at 25. Injuries plagued his time at Texas Tech from 2021 to 2023, but in 2024, he had his first healthy season since he quarterbacked Oregon in 2020, thus landing him on draft boards as a potential Day 2 pick.
His age and injury history remain concerns, as he dialed back on rushing in 2024 (from 149 rushing yards in 2023 to 19 yards last season) and completed only 62.7% of his passes. As such, QBASE does not view him as a likely NFL starter, though some teams are hopeful his experience will give him an edge.
While Milroe is the best runner in this year's class (4.3 rushing yards per attempt in 2024), he has red flags that the quarterbacks ahead of him do not. First, he regressed as a passer from 2023 to 2024; his completion percentage dropped from 65.8% to 64.3%, and unlike in 2023, he did not receive any Heisman votes in 2024.
Second, Milroe has only two seasons of starting experience, though we factor in that having Heisman winner and future No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young ahead of him on the depth chart at Alabama in 2021 and 2022 was not his fault.
Howard was not projected as a future top 100 pick during his four years at Kansas State. But that changed with his 2024 season, which culminated in him leading Ohio State to a national championship.
His most impressive statistic is his 73% completion percentage in 2024, which ranked second behind Sanders. He is also a solid rusher, though he is not a dual-threat quarterback like Milroe. While his teammates may have made him look better than he is, his statistical profile is stronger than that of the next quarterback here. Teams looking for a later Day 2 pick with upside potential will be interested in him.
QBASE is negative on Ewers' chances of succeeding in the NFL. Like Milroe, he regressed as a passer from 2023 (69% completion percentage) to 2024 (65.8%). But he also regressed as a runner from 1.3 rushing yards per attempt in 2023 compared to negative-1.4 in 2024.
In addition, he and Howard had the most NFL-caliber talent among their pass catchers and offensive linemen, and his sack-to-pressure ratio is the highest. While he was a three-year starter, that is not enough to make up for his relative lack of the traits that best translate to the NFL: accuracy, rushing ability and avoiding sacks.
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With that background, I present this year's QBASE 2.0 projections for the 2025 quarterback class. QBASE 2.0 is a combination of Andrew Healy's (2015) original QBASE model and Alexandre Olbrecht and Jeremy Rosen's (2018) functional mobility model. It factors in a quarterback's college passing statistics adjusted for the quality of his teammates and opponents, plus how many years he started in college. It also incorporates his rushing ability, and while it rewards improvements over time, it penalizes one-year wonders.
The quarterbacks below are listed in order of our Scouts Inc. rankings. Interpreting each quarterback's projection is straightforward, a value of zero Total defense-adjusted yards above replacement per attempt (TDYAR/A) is replacement-level, whereas any value over 1.5 is indicative of a Hall of Fame career. We run 50,000 simulations to provide a distribution of the number of times that each quarterback falls within a particular range.
Here are our projections for the top seven QBs in the 2025 class:

Projections for the 2025 class
Cam Ward, Miami
Scouts Inc. ranking: 7Mean Projection | 0.35 TDYAR/A |
---|---|
Bust (< 0 TDYAR/A) | 38.2% |
Adequate Starter (0-0.75 TDYAR/A) | 25.2% |
Upper Tier (0.75-1.5 TDYAR/A) | 20.5% |
Elite (> 1.5 TDYAR/A) | 16.1% |
While Ward had a five-year college career due to extra COVID-19 eligibility, he was not seen as a first-round prospect before this draft cycle. It is understandable for the Titans to use the No.1 overall pick on him, but it is also unlikely that he would have gone in the top three picks last year.
Shedeur Sanders, Colorado
Scouts Inc. ranking: 28Mean Projection | 0.19 TDYAR/A |
---|---|
Bust (< 0 TDYAR/A) | 43.5% |
Adequate Starter (0-0.75 TDYAR/A) | 25.4% |
Upper Tier (0.75-1.5 TDYAR/A) | 18.5% |
Elite (> 1.5 TDYAR/A) | 12.6% |
If Sanders' projected draft position were the same as Ward's, their QBASE projections would be closer. But it's important to note that in the most recent classes (from 2018 to the present), mobile quarterbacks like Ward have performed better in the NFL.
Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss
Scouts Inc. ranking: 30Mean Projection | 0.16 TDYAR/A |
---|---|
Bust (< 0 TDYAR/A) | 44.3% |
Adequate Starter (0-0.75 TDYAR/A) | 26.4% |
Upper Tier (0.75-1.5 TDYAR/A) | 18.2% |
Elite (> 1.5 TDYAR/A) | 11.1% |
However, scouts are less high on Dart in part because of his relative lack of size (6-foot-2, 223 pounds) and arm strength, as well as the one-read offense he ran under coach Lane Kiffin. It is worth noting that aside from Drake Maye and J.J. McCarthy, last year's quarterbacks did not come from pro-style offenses, yet their rookie years ranged from solid to generational.
Tyler Shough, Louisville
Scouts Inc. ranking: 47Mean Projection | -0.87 TDYAR/A |
---|---|
Bust (< 0 TDYAR/A) | 78.3% |
Adequate Starter (0-0.75 TDYAR/A) | 14.4% |
Upper Tier (0.75-1.5 TDYAR/A) | 5.7% |
Elite (> 1.5 TDYAR/A) | 1.7% |
His age and injury history remain concerns, as he dialed back on rushing in 2024 (from 149 rushing yards in 2023 to 19 yards last season) and completed only 62.7% of his passes. As such, QBASE does not view him as a likely NFL starter, though some teams are hopeful his experience will give him an edge.
Jalen Milroe, Alabama
Scouts Inc. ranking: 79Mean Projection | -0.44 TDYAR/A |
---|---|
Bust (< 0 TDYAR/A) | 65.7% |
Adequate Starter (0-0.75 TDYAR/A) | 20.5% |
Upper Tier (0.75-1.5 TDYAR/A) | 10% |
Elite (> 1.5 TDYAR/A) | 3.9% |
Second, Milroe has only two seasons of starting experience, though we factor in that having Heisman winner and future No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young ahead of him on the depth chart at Alabama in 2021 and 2022 was not his fault.

Will Howard, Ohio State
Scouts Inc. ranking: 97Mean Projection | -0.57 TDYAR/A |
---|---|
Bust (< 0 TDYAR/A) | 70% |
Adequate Starter (0-0.75 TDYAR/A) | 18.4% |
Upper Tier (0.75-1.5 TDYAR/A) | 8.6% |
Elite (> 1.5 TDYAR/A) | 3% |
His most impressive statistic is his 73% completion percentage in 2024, which ranked second behind Sanders. He is also a solid rusher, though he is not a dual-threat quarterback like Milroe. While his teammates may have made him look better than he is, his statistical profile is stronger than that of the next quarterback here. Teams looking for a later Day 2 pick with upside potential will be interested in him.
Quinn Ewers, Texas
Scouts Inc. ranking: 108Mean Projection | -2.06 TDYAR/A |
---|---|
Bust (< 0 TDYAR/A) | 96.1% |
Adequate Starter (0-0.75 TDYAR/A) | 3.1% |
Upper Tier (0.75-1.5 TDYAR/A) | 0.7% |
Elite (> 1.5 TDYAR/A) | 0.1% |
QBASE is negative on Ewers' chances of succeeding in the NFL. Like Milroe, he regressed as a passer from 2023 (69% completion percentage) to 2024 (65.8%). But he also regressed as a runner from 1.3 rushing yards per attempt in 2023 compared to negative-1.4 in 2024.
In addition, he and Howard had the most NFL-caliber talent among their pass catchers and offensive linemen, and his sack-to-pressure ratio is the highest. While he was a three-year starter, that is not enough to make up for his relative lack of the traits that best translate to the NFL: accuracy, rushing ability and avoiding sacks.

Projecting the futures of the top seven QBs in the NFL draft: Which have bust potential?
We projected the top QBs in the 2025 NFL draft class, such as Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders. How will top prospects fare?
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