Interesting Stat on Pennington, Henne and Beck

[foozool13]

I found this interesting statistic about QBs from an ESPN article I read today. It is a formula which breaks down college stats for QBs and tries to correlate it to their success in the NFL. It breaks down the score into three sections. 20+ : Should be successful, 0 - 19.99 - Questionable, < 0 - Busts. I copied and pasted the formula(s) below along with the values for Chad Henne and John Beck. Yes I know there are no guarantees, but if you look at the list you can see it is a pretty good evaluation technique. With the exception of Leinart (whos #s are inflated due to Reggie Bush), Tim Couch, Alex Smith, and David Carr all of the other QBs with a value higher than 20 have had success in the NFL. BUT the most revealing thing is that any QB who scored less than 0 was a bonafide BUST in the NFL!! The offseason is slow so I need to stay occupied with football somehow...lol.

For BCS quarterbacks
(Career Starts x0.5) + [(Career completion pct. - 60)x5] +[(Career touchdown-INT ratio - 2.25)x10]
For non-BCS quarterbacks
(Career Starts x0.5) + [(Career completion pct. - 60)x2.5] + [(Career touchdown-INT Ratio - 2.25)x5]

CHADE HENNE = (45 x0.5) + [(59.7 - 60)x5] +[(2.35- 2.25)x10] = 22.00 (BCS QB)

JOHN BECK = (43 x0.5) + [(62.9 - 60)x2.5] + [(2.4375 - 2.25)x5] = 29.69 (NON-BCS QB)

Group I: Score > 20 - Strong likelihood of success
Player - Score
Matt Leinart 64.04
Philip Rivers 48.44
Tim Couch 47.64
Alex Smith 44.88
Aaron Rodgers 40.58
Peyton Manning 39.47
Jason Campbell 38.75
Byron Leftwich 36.39
Ben Roethlisberger 33.85
CHAD PENNINGTON 33.53
Daunte Culpepper 30.00
JOHN BECK 29.69
David Carr 23.97
Joe Flacco 23.92
Eli Manning 23.14
CHADE HENNE 22.00
Donovan McNabb 21.62

Group II: 0.00 < Score < 19.99 - Hit-or-Miss
Brady Quinn 18.93
JaMarcus Russell 18.64
Rex Grossman 18.39
Vince Young 18.21
Carson Palmer 16.35
Matt Ryan 9.14
Patrick Ramsey 9.06
J.P. Losman 7.86
Jay Cutler 2.39
Group III: Busts
Akili Smith 0.00
Cade McNown -6.41
Joey Harrington -6.85
Michael Vick -11.32
Ryan Leaf -16.92
Jim Druckenmiller -20.25
Kyle Boller -50.67

Scores for 2009 Likely First-Round Quarterbacks
Mark Sanchez 32.63
Josh Freeman 1.94
Matthew Stafford -4.55

Link - http://myespn.go.com/blogs/nfcnorth/0-9-44/Finding-context-in-the-Stafford-debate.html

 

[Bigjbizzle2]

Here is thing that proves this Theory really is garbage. This thing just proves that there really is no way to know what qb will have success in the NFL. You just have to do every bit of homework and hope you get lucky on these QB's.

Group I: Score > 20 - Strong likelihood of success
Player - Score
Matt Leinart 64.04 - Terrible and hes the highest on list
Philip Rivers 48.44 - Good Qb
Tim Couch 47.64 - Laughable was terrible
Alex Smith 44.88 - laughable is terrible
Aaron Rodgers 40.58 - One good year so far (only started one)
Peyton Manning 39.47 - One of the greats
Jason Campbell 38.75 - Most skin fans view him as average
Byron Leftwich 36.39 - Bust
Ben Roethlisberger 33.85 - Good qb
CHAD PENNINGTON 33.53 - Good qb
Daunte Culpepper 30.00 - Laughable his good year were made by Moss
JOHN BECK 29.69 - unproven but when he played didnt look special at all
David Carr 23.97 - Laughable -----bust
Joe Flacco 23.92 - A winner so far but stats are unimpressive
Eli Manning 23.14 - inconsistant but still good
CHADE HENNE 22.00 - Hasn't played yet
Donovan McNabb 21.62 - Good qb

Group II: 0.00 < Score < 19.99 - Hit-or-Miss
Brady Quinn 18.93 - Hasnt played enough but when played didnt play well
JaMarcus Russell 18.64 - Laughable so far next year is make or break
Rex Grossman 18.39 - BUST
Vince Young 18.21 - BUST
Carson Palmer 16.35 - Better then almost all the sure fires
Matt Ryan 9.14 - Good Rookie Year Good QB
Patrick Ramsey 9.06 - BUM
J.P. Losman 7.86 - !st rd BUST
Jay Cutler 2.39 Good QB
Group III: Busts
Akili Smith 0.00 - nothing to be said
Cade McNown -6.41- terrible
Joey Harrington -6.85 - Had a couple good years but BUST
Michael Vick -11.32 Proven winner, not really a bust on the field
Ryan Leaf -16.92 - Biggest bust ever
Jim Druckenmiller -20.25 Wow
Kyle Boller -50.67 - Bust material he was

Scores for 2009 Likely First-Round Quarterbacks
Mark Sanchez 32.63
Josh Freeman 1.94
Matthew Stafford -4.55

Link - http://myespn.go.com/blogs/nfcnorth/0-9-44/Finding-context-in-the-Stafford-debate.html[/quote]

 

[foozool13]

Micheal Vick is NOT a proven winner...bad call.

 

[akfinfan]

Micheal Vick is NOT a proven winner...bad call.

I do believe he beat the Packers in Lambaugh Field in the playoffs with tons of snow on the ground a few years ago...he had average RBs and average receivers.....

 

[dolpns13]

Looks like this formula is crap...

 

[josemarro]

Stats or no stas I belive in John Beck. He deserve a chance in the NFL

 

[Pompy]

I hope all the fans on this site realize that quarterbacks need time in most instances to get accustomed to the NFL. Leinart may turn out to be a good/great quarterback in the future. He is like Henne and Beck (unproven). I forsee the Dolphin FO getting another wide receiver and speed tight end for weapons for Henne/Beck in the future. Tim Couch and Alex Smith played early in their career and look what happened. They didn't have many weapons around him either. Be patient and support our players.

 

[foozool13]

I do believe he beat the Packers in Lambaugh Field in the playoffs with tons of snow on the ground a few years ago...he had average RBs and average receivers.....

Im not saying he wasn't talented but how does winning a playoff game mean you are a proven winner? Vick stunk his last two years and had 2 good years. He is average at best.

 

[Nappy Roots]

Im not saying he wasn't talented but how does winning a playoff game mean you are a proven winner? Vick stunk his last two years and had 2 good years. He is average at best.

because he proved he won games for that Falcons team? that did not have a good team around him and he took them to the playoffs and even beat Green Bay at home in the snow, which hadnt been done in a long time.

also, who said Culpeppers "good year were made by moss". Dauntes best year was mostly without Moss. Daunte was a good QB in his prime.

anyways, this system is pretty flawed. half the QBs in top list who were supposed to be good were busts. but all of the definite busts in the equation were busts(id say except Vick because personally i think hes better then people gave him credit for, but thats another discussion) so say no to Matt Stafford??????

 

[Bigjbizzle2]

Micheal Vick is NOT a proven winner...bad call.

Played in 74 games won 40 games with a tie so he 55 percent his games with team that was trash without him so yeah he is a proven winner, sorry

 

[Duriel]

This formula works as well as the one I suggested to Einstein: E=(MC+1)/3

 

[Dolfan3773]

mierda

 

[Marino Forever]

Here is thing that proves this Theory really is garbage. This thing just proves that there really is no way to know what qb will have success in the NFL. You just have to do every bit of homework and hope you get lucky on these QB's.

Group I: Score > 20 - Strong likelihood of success
Player - Score
Matt Leinart 64.04 - Terrible and hes the highest on list
Philip Rivers 48.44 - Good Qb
Tim Couch 47.64 - Laughable was terrible
Alex Smith 44.88 - laughable is terrible
Aaron Rodgers 40.58 - One good year so far (only started one)
Peyton Manning 39.47 - One of the greats
Jason Campbell 38.75 - Most skin fans view him as average
Byron Leftwich 36.39 - Bust
Ben Roethlisberger 33.85 - Good qb
CHAD PENNINGTON 33.53 - Good qb
Daunte Culpepper 30.00 - Laughable his good year were made by Moss
JOHN BECK 29.69 - unproven but when he played didnt look special at all
David Carr 23.97 - Laughable -----bust
Joe Flacco 23.92 - A winner so far but stats are unimpressive
Eli Manning 23.14 - inconsistant but still good
CHADE HENNE 22.00 - Hasn't played yet
Donovan McNabb 21.62 - Good qb

Group II: 0.00 < Score < 19.99 - Hit-or-Miss
Brady Quinn 18.93 - Hasnt played enough but when played didnt play well
JaMarcus Russell 18.64 - Laughable so far next year is make or break
Rex Grossman 18.39 - BUST
Vince Young 18.21 - BUST
Carson Palmer 16.35 - Better then almost all the sure fires
Matt Ryan 9.14 - Good Rookie Year Good QB
Patrick Ramsey 9.06 - BUM
J.P. Losman 7.86 - !st rd BUST
Jay Cutler 2.39 Good QB
Group III: Busts
Akili Smith 0.00 - nothing to be said
Cade McNown -6.41- terrible
Joey Harrington -6.85 - Had a couple good years but BUST
Michael Vick -11.32 Proven winner, not really a bust on the field
Ryan Leaf -16.92 - Biggest bust ever
Jim Druckenmiller -20.25 Wow
Kyle Boller -50.67 - Bust material he was

Scores for 2009 Likely First-Round Quarterbacks
Mark Sanchez 32.63
Josh Freeman 1.94
Matthew Stafford -4.55

Link - http://myespn.go.com/blogs/nfcnorth/0-9-44/Finding-context-in-the-Stafford-debate.html

[/quote]

By your post alone this proves the formula works to some extent. In the first category you have admittedly said that 8 of the 17 were good qbs. In the second category (HIT or MISS) you said that 2 out of 9 were good ones, and in the third category (BUSTS) you said that 1 out of the 7 were good QBs (and that was a dog killing, one playoff game winning question mark). So doesn't that prove that if you have a number that correlates to the first category you have a close to 50-50 chance of being good, a 20 percent chance of being good in the second category, and a very little chance if in the third category????

 

[foozool13]

Played in 74 games won 40 games with a tie so he 55 percent his games with team that was trash without him so yeah he is a proven winner, sorry

nope

 

[Bigjbizzle2]

nope

well you can live in your fantasy world, but when he went to jail what happended to the exact team he would have won 7-9 games with thats right they won 4 games, so keep worrying about stats