brumdog44
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I mentioned this in several posts, but one of the most predictive stats of a team winning a game is the winning team's QBR v. the losing team's QBR. This is not the traditional 'qb rating' number the NFL uses, but rather a stat that measures performance relative to expected value given game situation, down and distance, and score I.e., quarterbacks throwing for a lot of yards after the game is over won't score as high on those passes as ones that did so early in the game or in a close game; throwing for 8 yards on 3rd and 10 won't earn a qb as much value as throwing for 8 yards on 1st and 10.
In the past three weeks, in 34 of the 40 games the team with the starting quarterback with the higher QBR defeated the team whose quarterback put up a lower QBR.....so 85% that a team won, their quarterback had a higher QBR.
The rub? Three of the six times in the past three weeks that the team lost despite their quarterback putting up a better QBR were the Dolphins. So the Dolphins were 0-3 with a higher QBR while the rest of the league went 34-3 (92%). IMO, a stat that is predicting the winning team 92% of the time when the Dolphins aren't playing is one that can't be ignored.
So what is different? It's not as simple as the Dolphins don't throw downfield -- QBR accounts for that in the real v expected values of plays; additionally, there does not seem to be any corelation in other teams who post a higher QBR and aren't taking downfield shots. IMO, consistently having results in terms of score that don't match up to what should be expected indicates an underperformance that is likely connected with a couple of things:
1. simple bad luck (which I would write off here as the odds of losing three straight on a prediction that should be 90% accurate is very slim);
2. penalties putting the offense in harder situations (that certainly has happened)
3. bad special teams plays, which wouldn't show up in either team's QBR numbers (yep)
4. bad mixing of run/pass play calls (check)
Thoughts?
In the past three weeks, in 34 of the 40 games the team with the starting quarterback with the higher QBR defeated the team whose quarterback put up a lower QBR.....so 85% that a team won, their quarterback had a higher QBR.
The rub? Three of the six times in the past three weeks that the team lost despite their quarterback putting up a better QBR were the Dolphins. So the Dolphins were 0-3 with a higher QBR while the rest of the league went 34-3 (92%). IMO, a stat that is predicting the winning team 92% of the time when the Dolphins aren't playing is one that can't be ignored.
So what is different? It's not as simple as the Dolphins don't throw downfield -- QBR accounts for that in the real v expected values of plays; additionally, there does not seem to be any corelation in other teams who post a higher QBR and aren't taking downfield shots. IMO, consistently having results in terms of score that don't match up to what should be expected indicates an underperformance that is likely connected with a couple of things:
1. simple bad luck (which I would write off here as the odds of losing three straight on a prediction that should be 90% accurate is very slim);
2. penalties putting the offense in harder situations (that certainly has happened)
3. bad special teams plays, which wouldn't show up in either team's QBR numbers (yep)
4. bad mixing of run/pass play calls (check)
Thoughts?
