Is Ryan Tannehill Going to Become a Franchise QB?

[Shouright]

This page might be helpful in making some of these distinctions:

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/pass_rating_active.htm

IMO there isn't as much distance as some people might think between the elite and the others in terms of QB rating. In fact you might be able to draw the line right between Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco, since that difference is a little more than five points.

 

[2413fanphins]

that is of course if qb rating is your only factor in determining a "franchise" qb.

 

[Shouright]

However, I think the general finding here, that Ryan Tannehill showed the kind of clutch play this year that suggested he has "the tools" to become a franchise QB, supports the perceptions of many here in the forum.

To provide a bit of additional context, Chad Henne's WPA in 2009 (his first season as a starter) was 0.90, which would've placed him, also, in the "future franchise QB" category, though not with the degree of confidence provided by Ryan Tannehill's WPA of 1.36. Of course Chad Henne was not a rookie that year, either, and he'd had much more experience at the position than Tannehill.

Also, and here's the clincher: Chad Henne's WPA the following season (2010) was -1.28.

I'll bump this one due to the fact that Tannehill's WPA last year, even though it placed him 20th in the league overall, was predictive of the improvement we're seeing in him this year. So far this year he's ranked 3rd in the league in WPA, behind only Peyton Manning and Jay Cutler:

http://wp.advancednflstats.com/playerstats.php?pos=QB

As an update of the second post above, clicking on the link in that post gives us the data to determine that Ryan Tannehill's overall WPA and his WPA per game have since fallen to just below the league average.