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Is There Hope?

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This is more for fun than anything else, but there was a stretch of the game yesterday that lasted nearly a half, in which the Dolphins played like a team that would be expected to finish a season with a 15-1 record.

Let me explain.

In the second half, Matt Moore's passer rating was 106.5.

Ryan Fitzpatrick's was 68.8.

That of course means the Dolphins' passing offense was playing very well, and its defense was playing very well against the opposing passing offense.

Based on league data from 2014 to 2016, every 5.65 points of advantage between offensive passer rating and defensive passer rating surrendered (i.e., passer rating differential) equals one expected win on a season.

During the second half yesterday, the Dolphins' passer rating differential was a whopping +37.6.

37.6/5.65 = 6.65

(For comparison's sake, the 2016 Patriots, who finished 14-2 and won the Super Bowl, had a passer rating differential of +25.1 on the season.)

The average team in the league is of course expected to finish 8-8. A team with 6.65 additional wins, rounding up to 7, would naturally finish 15-1.

So here's the question to ponder and respond to if you'd like: if this team is truly toast, why can it play for an entire half of football like a team that would be expected to finish 15-1, even when it's down 20-7 on the scoreboard and there appears to be no overwhelming motive to do so?

Take a look through the forum at the criticism of various parts of the team, from the owner all the way to the ballboy.

If those parts of the team truly make it terrible, how did it play like a 15-1 team for an entire half, when it could've just as easily packed up and quit?

What about the team made that happen, and why can't it be present for 60 minutes week in week out?
 
Past 20 years....it's a turd....no matter how much you try to polish it..it's still a turd.....Miami,where hope dies.
 
IDK, maybe it's me but the dolphins never seem to continue to do the things they did to tie it up.. when they were down, they were bringing pressure on def, then they tie it up and revert back and allow the bucs to drive down and win..
 
tommyp said:
IDK, maybe it's me but the dolphins never seem to continue to do the things they did to tie it up.. when they were down, they were bringing pressure on def, then they tie it up and revert back and allow the bucs to drive down and win..
Click to expand...

Looked that way to me. Was that Burke or did Gase tell Burke to change the scheme
 
<O> said:
This is more for fun than anything else, but there was a stretch of the game yesterday that lasted nearly a half, in which the Dolphins played like a team that would be expected to finish a season with a 15-1 record.

Let me explain.

In the second half, Matt Moore's passer rating was 106.5.

Ryan Fitzpatrick's was 68.8.

That of course means the Dolphins' passing offense was playing very well, and its defense was playing very well against the opposing passing offense.

Based on league data from 2014 to 2016, every 5.65 points of advantage between offensive passer rating and defensive passer rating surrendered (i.e., passer rating differential) equals one expected win on a season.

During the second half yesterday, the Dolphins' passer rating differential was a whopping +37.6.

37.6/5.65 = 6.65

(For comparison's sake, the 2016 Patriots, who finished 14-2 and won the Super Bowl, had a passer rating differential of +25.1 on the season.)

The average team in the league is of course expected to finish 8-8. A team with 6.65 additional wins, rounding up to 7, would naturally finish 15-1.

So here's the question to ponder and respond to if you'd like: if this team is truly toast, why can it play for an entire half of football like a team that would be expected to finish 15-1, even when it's down 20-7 on the scoreboard and there appears to be no overwhelming motive to do so?

Take a look through the forum at the criticism of various parts of the team, from the owner all the way to the ballboy.

If those parts of the team truly make it terrible, how did it play like a 15-1 team for an entire half, when it could've just as easily packed up and quit?

What about the team made that happen, and why can't it be present for 60 minutes week in week out?
Click to expand...


jxyxO_s-200x150.gif
 
matt11390 said:
Nope ... not this season. Honestly as long as Tannenbaum is in the talent acquisition there won't be hope.
Click to expand...
I was about to say the same thing. Not with him as the GM and Ross as the owner because he won't get rid of t-dumb

Ozzy rules!!
 
tommyp said:
IDK, maybe it's me but the dolphins never seem to continue to do the things they did to tie it up.. when they were down, they were bringing pressure on def, then they tie it up and revert back and allow the bucs to drive down and win..
Click to expand...

That's been happening for years. Carolina and Green Bay during Philbin's tenure comes to mind immediately. There are countless others.
 
We are so beaten down we get hope with a strong quarter or half in losing efforts. Is there hope, no way in hell this year as we're a mess top to bottom, left to right. No consistency except for being consistently bad, bad like top 2 bad in the NFL. Should we be optimistic that this offseason will be any different than the many prior, I don't see how one could think the output will be anything other than bad times 3. We'll draft bad, retain players and coaches who underperform and dream of the Pats folding yet they never do. To be honest we'd finish last if the Pats were on the moon and it was a three horse race, we are bad, so bad it's a farking joke.
 
There is hope,
Always there is light.
Never give up,
Not even in the worst loss.
Every team needs to play,
Hard work always pays off.
Improvement comes with execution.
Leadership improves performance,
Leasons never seemed learnt.
 
Matt Moore definitely sparked the team. He played with energy and the whole team followed. With Moore, you never know what you're going to get, though.

I think this year is over, but there is always hope and you just never know in the NFL. Looking at the schedule, it's hard to find another win. Denver and Buffalo are struggling recently so maybe there's a win or two there.
 
Tinkering with numbers can be addictive but it's best to step back and let it go. Posters here are impressed with you already. This thread seems a bit forced.

Moore's numbers don't really mean anything since he's not the logical full time starter at any point.

Our pass defense is so bad it is unsustainably bad. We'll have stretches of normalcy or above average, sometimes when the opponent doesn't particularly feel threatened. That's yesterday. Tampa Bay is not good enough to accidentally win by 30 on the road when they haven't won a road game period in so long. The second half offensive lull was logical.

If it had gotten to 20-20 earlier, let's say end of third quarter, I'm not convinced our defense would have clamped down for a passer rating number like that.

We don't have 68.8 personnel.

Last season at New England might have been something similar. Well, Brissett didn't throw much so his rating wouldn't be particularly low or particularly meaningful. Tannehill threw plenty and was very successful. That game ending interception would ding his rating.
 
matt11390 said:
Nope ... not this season. Honestly as long as Tannenbaum is in the talent acquisition there won't be hope.
Click to expand...

I remember when I used to hate the phrase "There's always next year..."

But now that Tannenbaum is here, I miss those days... Can we go back to the time when we had hope for next year? Please, Ross?
 
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