Is this quote true?

[djfresh47]

"Most games on this level, are lost, not won."-Dick Vermiel

I think this statement is true, turnovers are a huge factor in the outcome of a game, and I think the offense is more at fault for a turnover, rather than the defense be complimented for forcing a turnover. Most interceptions are the fault of the QB, making a bad read, or forcing a throw, rather than the result of a defensive player making a spectacular play. It's a combination, but I think the offense is more at fault for turnovers. Say a Qb fumbles the ball, is it because the defensive player makes a great strip, or because the offensive line simply missed the block, making it "losing" play. This does not apply all the time, or else teams would simply kneel on every play, and wait for the other team to make a mistake. Obviously, the team that makes the fewest mistakes usually wins the game. I just thought this was a different point of view, and while I don't like how Vermiel cries as much as a baby, he is a good coach, who is loved by his players, and makes a good point.

 

[finfan54]

My wife, who ussually yawns alot during games, always says the team with the most turnovers will lose. Then she goes back to sleep.

 

[paskerbrandon]

My wife, who ussually yawns alot during games, always says the team with the most turnovers will lose. Then she goes back to sleep.

Shes usally right then

 

[unifiedtheory]

My wife, who ussually yawns alot during games, always says the team with the most turnovers will lose. Then she goes back to sleep.

When you really look at it your wife knows all you really need to know about football...

If you turn it over more then the other team you lose...

I'd like to know if anyone has the statistic for what a team's winning percentage is when they win the turnover battle. I Googled around but got frustrated.

 

[FIN-IN-RI]

I agree with that quote. It's all about discipline.

 

[Awsi Dooger]

I'd like to know if anyone has the statistic for what a team's winning percentage is when they win the turnover battle. I Googled around but got frustrated.

Well, this is my territory since my job is sports statistical analysis. It varies somewhat more than other stats, but the general range is 70-78% of NFL games are won by the team with the fewest turnovers.

Dick Vermeil, BTW, is an excellent source for the most relevant stats. I read an article in Inside Sports magazine in summer 1987 in which he broke down the most vital stats, maybe a dozen of them. It was like a revelation, both in enjoying the game and for my job and as a sports bettor. Amazing that nearly two decades later the truisms he printed in that article still are not widely known or accepted.

A very good source for statistical breakdown is twominutewarning.com. http://twominutewarning.com/correlations2.htm. Here is a paragraph from one of their statistical analysis articles:

"[size=-1]The play-by-play findings tell you one thing pretty clearly: it's a passing game, and the way to win is to pass more effectively than your opposition, whether that is measured by overall effectiveness (our EFR number), the passing play success rate, or the passing big gain plays (defined as 20+ yards for passes, and remember we include such things as pass interference plays which often go for 20 or more yards). Now Bud Goode, among others, has of course for years been talking about the "killer stat" of net passing yards per play."

If you look at their chart, you will note the 79-80% win percentage of teams that win the yards per pass attempt battle. It's not like I'm making this stuff up, folks. The Feeley supporters who insist it's important to complete the high percentage stuff rather than challenge deep with regularity are well meaning, but flat out wrong.

Run the ball often, pass the ball well. If you try to violate either one of those you are doomed in this league. Last year we tried to pretend running the ball 6 or 8 less times than our opponent on average, combined with Feeley's 5.32 yards per pass attempt, was sufficient. Frankly, with numbers like that it's semi-miraculous we won four games.
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[Awsi Dooger]

Here is another link, a very recent article from the Chicago Sun Times regarding the turnover battle and win correlation. http://www.suntimes.com/output/bears/cst-spt-mully25.html

They quote 78%, which via my research is a bit high on average. There is also a reference to Dick Vermeil, who states the number was 73% in 2003.

 

[Sirspud]

You still have to have an offense capable of converting the turnover to points. We had some games early last year where we got some key turn overs and could not convert it to points.