normaniii
Active Roster
After the debacle against the Jets, my thoughts turned to next year and who would be our HC. After reading rumours of Eric Mangini I had a Jerry Maguire moment and decided to play GM and right the wrongs of the Dolphins.
The NFL as we all know is a pass orientated game. Offences have moved on from the run blocking TE's and FB's to 2 pass catching TE sets and 3/4 WR sets.
Why then do most teams still have predominantly 3-4 & 4-3 base defenses, with traditional safeties and SAM LBers?
I watched Green Bay last year play 2-5-4 with 3 ILB's. Even the Jets last year played with 3 CB's and 1 deep safety (Jim Leornard before injury).
I often wonder why defenses seemed to have moved on but defenses have not. Watching players like Reshard Jones & Y.Bell struggle in coverage kills me.
As I said my epiphany came watching last nights game. Watching both 3-4 defenses and run built rosters, attempting to become pass orientated (I use the word attempting very loosely).
IMO most legacy's are created by going against the norm. 'Air Coryell' in a run dominated league, the Bears 4-6 defense, the Steelers zone blitzing 3-4 defense & I would also mention Jim Johnson version of the 4-3 zone blitz D. This is a copycat league and due to the success of the 3-4, NFL teams are progressively siding with this as their base D. NFL draft day shows this with undersize pass rush LBers rising on draft day and those considered to lack 'backpedal' dropping.
Why not then go against todays norm.
Here is my plan.
Hire Mike Zimmer as HC & go back to a 'base' 4-3 D & a run orientated Offense.
Mike Zimmer has a history of getting the best out of his players. The Benglas have drafted players whose stock has dropped due to charachter issues and Zimmer has helped them flourish (Carlos Dunlap, Michael Johnson, PacMan Jones, Rey Maualuga to name a few). If you couple this with the fact that the stock of 4-3, front seven players are dropping come draft day, then IMO you could have a recipe for success.
I would also carry this recipe over to the Offense. When I say I would want a run orientated Offense, I know this would be nothing without a top QB. What I would want is, much like Gary Kubiak has created in Texas, a run first team, with the passing game dominated by play-action. IMO a dominant O'line, makes the QB better, the RB better and also consequently the Defense. Run dominant O'lineman such as Gabe Carimi are dropping every year, due to their lack of so called athletesism, so why not draft them on the so-called 'cheap' and let them do what they do best.
This recipe for success is based on hiring a coach who improves and gets the best out of his players, charachter concerns or not and going against the so-called norm by being able to draft players who's stock has dropped due to charachter concerns or not fitting common schemes.
I have compiled a list of NT, DE & rush OLB, chosen by 3-4 teams, in the first 3 rounds, over the last 3 years to show the shift in how players stocks are rising and falling based soley on position played (I have inclued round taken, Height & Weight)
NT
BJ Raji - 1 - 6'2 - 340
Ron Brace - 2 - 6'3 - 330
Dan Williams - 1 - 6'3 337
Torell Troup - 2 - 6'3 - 326
Terrence Cody - 2 - 6'4 - 349???
Kenrick Ellis - 3 - 6'4 - 346
DE
Tyson Jackson - 1 - 6'4 - 296
Ziggy Hood - 1 - 6'3 300
Alex Magee - 3 - 6'3 - 298
Jared O'Drick - 1 - 6'5 - 304
Mike Neal - 2 - 6'3 - 294
Alex Carrington - 3 - 6'5 - 302
JJ Watt - 1 - 6'5 288
Muhammad Wilkerson - 1 - 6-4 - 315
Cameron Heyward - 1 - 6'5 - 288
Jarvis Jenkins - 2 - 6-4 - 309
Corey Liuget - 1 - 6'2 - 300
Allen Bailey - 3 - 6'3 - 288
OLB
Aaron Maybin - 1 - 6'4 - 246
Brian Orakpo - 1 - 6'4 260
Larry English - 1 - 6'2 - 255
David Veikune - 2 - 6'4 264
Paul Kruger - 2 -6'4 - 265
Cody Brown - 2 - 6'3 - 252
Koa Misi - 2 - 6'3 - 251
Sergio Kindle - 2 - 6'3 - 250
Jason Worilds - 2 - 6'3 - 262
Jermaine Cunningham - 2 - 6'3 - 260
Aldon Smith - 1 - 6'4 - 258
Ryan Kerrigan - 1 - 6'4 - 267
Brooks Reed - 2 - 6'3 - 260
Justin Houston - 3 - 6'3 - 254
I though it would be interesting to go back 10 years and look at drafts of the predominant 3-4 team of the time, the Pittsburgh Steelers. I have noted over a 10 yr period just picks from round 3 down, consisting of players considered to be DE, NT & OLB:-
Brett Kiesel - 7th round
Clark Haggans - 5
Joey Porter - 3
Aaron Smith - 4
Chris Kelsay - 7
Mike Vrabel - 3
Earl Holmes - 4
Orpheus Roye - 6
Carlos Emmons - 7
Jason Gildon - 3
Jeff Zgonina - 7
These were just the names that I recognised. To have this kind of success from what is considered low round pick is remarkable. Just consider the careers of these guys and how high they would go in todays draft.
Due to the influx of the 3-4 Defense, traditional 'mike' & 'weakside' LBers stock has dropped. For example in this years draft there was not one ILB taken in first round. The top LB of this sort was considered to be Martez Wilson, who dropped into the 3rd round.
Even the stouter DT's who are considered too small for DE & not heavy enough for Nose are dropping. Players like Geno Atkins, Earl Mitchell, Jurrell Casey, Drake Nevis, Sen'Derrick Marks & Roy Miller have all gone 3rd and below in last 3 years. Even Nick Fairley dropped out of Top 10.
DE's considered too heavy for OLB or unable to drop back in coverage are also dropping. Jabaal Sheard, Christian Ballard, Greg Romeus, Pernell McPhee, Jeremy Beal, Carlos Dunlap, Everson Griffen, Corey Wootton, Austen Lane, Greg Hardy & Michael Bennett. Even Derrick Morgan dropped out of top 10. Although Allen Bailey and Alex Carrington were mentioned as being taken by 3-4 teams, they dropped in status, but much like Phil Merling, they are being used like square pegs in round holes.
When I started writing these name I realised that the Titans & Lions are making a killing this way. The Lions even took Amari Spievey, who was a big, aggresive CB, but struggled with back pedal, who was projected from rounds 2-3. They turned him into a starting SS.
I would follow this lead. Teams now are awashed with WR's but have a lack of depth at CB, not to mention coverage safeties. I would draft CB's who's play justifies high draft statues, who's stock has dropped soley due to 40 times and play them at FS/SS.
I would take this one step further, by considering SS such as Taylor Mays as weakside LBers and traditional weakside LBers on strong side lining up over TE's. In Cincinatti Zimmer has athletic Lbers such as Keith Rivers, Manny Lawson & Thomas Howard who IMO would not make a 1st round draft due to being considered undersized.
By following this theory of picking up players who have fallen over the last 3 years drafts would have gone this way as opposed to:-
2009
Vontae Davis
Phil Loadholt - Pat White
Michael Johnson - Shaun Smith
Rashad Johnson - Pat Turner
DJ Moore - Brian Hartline
Duke Robinson - John Nalbone
Chris Clemons
Andrew Gardner
2010
Taylor Mays - Jared Odrick
Carlos Dunlap - Koa Misi
Damien Williams - John Jerry
Akwasi Owusu-Ansah - AJ Edds
Austen Lane - Nolan Carroll
Greg Hardy - Reshard Jones
Dekoda Watson - Chris McCoy
LeGarrette Blount - Austin Spitler
2011 -
Prince Amukamara - Mike Pouncey
Ryan Mallet
Kendall Hunter - Clyde Gates
Charles Clay
Lee Ziemba - Frank Kearse
Stanley Havili - Jimmy Wilson
I have been as honest as I possibly can. Obviously knowing what I know now, I would not have taken Taylor Mays & would have gone with my favourite player at moment Jimmy Wilson.
This is what I would do as GM. All based on the theory of having a HC who man-manages players by getting the best out of them, charachter concers or not and by going against the grain, leaving you to pick up players who's stock has fallen due to lack of scheme need and charachter issues.
Just consider, Mallet & Blount, Davis & Amukamara and pass rush rotation containing:-
Cam Wake
Michael Johnson
Carlos Dunlap
Austen Lane
Greg Hardy
Ozzie Newsome once said, if you draft best player available you end up with a roster full of good players & our BPA will be at a better value.
The NFL as we all know is a pass orientated game. Offences have moved on from the run blocking TE's and FB's to 2 pass catching TE sets and 3/4 WR sets.
Why then do most teams still have predominantly 3-4 & 4-3 base defenses, with traditional safeties and SAM LBers?
I watched Green Bay last year play 2-5-4 with 3 ILB's. Even the Jets last year played with 3 CB's and 1 deep safety (Jim Leornard before injury).
I often wonder why defenses seemed to have moved on but defenses have not. Watching players like Reshard Jones & Y.Bell struggle in coverage kills me.
As I said my epiphany came watching last nights game. Watching both 3-4 defenses and run built rosters, attempting to become pass orientated (I use the word attempting very loosely).
IMO most legacy's are created by going against the norm. 'Air Coryell' in a run dominated league, the Bears 4-6 defense, the Steelers zone blitzing 3-4 defense & I would also mention Jim Johnson version of the 4-3 zone blitz D. This is a copycat league and due to the success of the 3-4, NFL teams are progressively siding with this as their base D. NFL draft day shows this with undersize pass rush LBers rising on draft day and those considered to lack 'backpedal' dropping.
Why not then go against todays norm.
Here is my plan.
Hire Mike Zimmer as HC & go back to a 'base' 4-3 D & a run orientated Offense.
Mike Zimmer has a history of getting the best out of his players. The Benglas have drafted players whose stock has dropped due to charachter issues and Zimmer has helped them flourish (Carlos Dunlap, Michael Johnson, PacMan Jones, Rey Maualuga to name a few). If you couple this with the fact that the stock of 4-3, front seven players are dropping come draft day, then IMO you could have a recipe for success.
I would also carry this recipe over to the Offense. When I say I would want a run orientated Offense, I know this would be nothing without a top QB. What I would want is, much like Gary Kubiak has created in Texas, a run first team, with the passing game dominated by play-action. IMO a dominant O'line, makes the QB better, the RB better and also consequently the Defense. Run dominant O'lineman such as Gabe Carimi are dropping every year, due to their lack of so called athletesism, so why not draft them on the so-called 'cheap' and let them do what they do best.
This recipe for success is based on hiring a coach who improves and gets the best out of his players, charachter concerns or not and going against the so-called norm by being able to draft players who's stock has dropped due to charachter concerns or not fitting common schemes.
I have compiled a list of NT, DE & rush OLB, chosen by 3-4 teams, in the first 3 rounds, over the last 3 years to show the shift in how players stocks are rising and falling based soley on position played (I have inclued round taken, Height & Weight)
NT
BJ Raji - 1 - 6'2 - 340
Ron Brace - 2 - 6'3 - 330
Dan Williams - 1 - 6'3 337
Torell Troup - 2 - 6'3 - 326
Terrence Cody - 2 - 6'4 - 349???
Kenrick Ellis - 3 - 6'4 - 346
DE
Tyson Jackson - 1 - 6'4 - 296
Ziggy Hood - 1 - 6'3 300
Alex Magee - 3 - 6'3 - 298
Jared O'Drick - 1 - 6'5 - 304
Mike Neal - 2 - 6'3 - 294
Alex Carrington - 3 - 6'5 - 302
JJ Watt - 1 - 6'5 288
Muhammad Wilkerson - 1 - 6-4 - 315
Cameron Heyward - 1 - 6'5 - 288
Jarvis Jenkins - 2 - 6-4 - 309
Corey Liuget - 1 - 6'2 - 300
Allen Bailey - 3 - 6'3 - 288
OLB
Aaron Maybin - 1 - 6'4 - 246
Brian Orakpo - 1 - 6'4 260
Larry English - 1 - 6'2 - 255
David Veikune - 2 - 6'4 264
Paul Kruger - 2 -6'4 - 265
Cody Brown - 2 - 6'3 - 252
Koa Misi - 2 - 6'3 - 251
Sergio Kindle - 2 - 6'3 - 250
Jason Worilds - 2 - 6'3 - 262
Jermaine Cunningham - 2 - 6'3 - 260
Aldon Smith - 1 - 6'4 - 258
Ryan Kerrigan - 1 - 6'4 - 267
Brooks Reed - 2 - 6'3 - 260
Justin Houston - 3 - 6'3 - 254
I though it would be interesting to go back 10 years and look at drafts of the predominant 3-4 team of the time, the Pittsburgh Steelers. I have noted over a 10 yr period just picks from round 3 down, consisting of players considered to be DE, NT & OLB:-
Brett Kiesel - 7th round
Clark Haggans - 5
Joey Porter - 3
Aaron Smith - 4
Chris Kelsay - 7
Mike Vrabel - 3
Earl Holmes - 4
Orpheus Roye - 6
Carlos Emmons - 7
Jason Gildon - 3
Jeff Zgonina - 7
These were just the names that I recognised. To have this kind of success from what is considered low round pick is remarkable. Just consider the careers of these guys and how high they would go in todays draft.
Due to the influx of the 3-4 Defense, traditional 'mike' & 'weakside' LBers stock has dropped. For example in this years draft there was not one ILB taken in first round. The top LB of this sort was considered to be Martez Wilson, who dropped into the 3rd round.
Even the stouter DT's who are considered too small for DE & not heavy enough for Nose are dropping. Players like Geno Atkins, Earl Mitchell, Jurrell Casey, Drake Nevis, Sen'Derrick Marks & Roy Miller have all gone 3rd and below in last 3 years. Even Nick Fairley dropped out of Top 10.
DE's considered too heavy for OLB or unable to drop back in coverage are also dropping. Jabaal Sheard, Christian Ballard, Greg Romeus, Pernell McPhee, Jeremy Beal, Carlos Dunlap, Everson Griffen, Corey Wootton, Austen Lane, Greg Hardy & Michael Bennett. Even Derrick Morgan dropped out of top 10. Although Allen Bailey and Alex Carrington were mentioned as being taken by 3-4 teams, they dropped in status, but much like Phil Merling, they are being used like square pegs in round holes.
When I started writing these name I realised that the Titans & Lions are making a killing this way. The Lions even took Amari Spievey, who was a big, aggresive CB, but struggled with back pedal, who was projected from rounds 2-3. They turned him into a starting SS.
I would follow this lead. Teams now are awashed with WR's but have a lack of depth at CB, not to mention coverage safeties. I would draft CB's who's play justifies high draft statues, who's stock has dropped soley due to 40 times and play them at FS/SS.
I would take this one step further, by considering SS such as Taylor Mays as weakside LBers and traditional weakside LBers on strong side lining up over TE's. In Cincinatti Zimmer has athletic Lbers such as Keith Rivers, Manny Lawson & Thomas Howard who IMO would not make a 1st round draft due to being considered undersized.
By following this theory of picking up players who have fallen over the last 3 years drafts would have gone this way as opposed to:-
2009
Vontae Davis
Phil Loadholt - Pat White
Michael Johnson - Shaun Smith
Rashad Johnson - Pat Turner
DJ Moore - Brian Hartline
Duke Robinson - John Nalbone
Chris Clemons
Andrew Gardner
2010
Taylor Mays - Jared Odrick
Carlos Dunlap - Koa Misi
Damien Williams - John Jerry
Akwasi Owusu-Ansah - AJ Edds
Austen Lane - Nolan Carroll
Greg Hardy - Reshard Jones
Dekoda Watson - Chris McCoy
LeGarrette Blount - Austin Spitler
2011 -
Prince Amukamara - Mike Pouncey
Ryan Mallet
Kendall Hunter - Clyde Gates
Charles Clay
Lee Ziemba - Frank Kearse
Stanley Havili - Jimmy Wilson
I have been as honest as I possibly can. Obviously knowing what I know now, I would not have taken Taylor Mays & would have gone with my favourite player at moment Jimmy Wilson.
This is what I would do as GM. All based on the theory of having a HC who man-manages players by getting the best out of them, charachter concers or not and by going against the grain, leaving you to pick up players who's stock has fallen due to lack of scheme need and charachter issues.
Just consider, Mallet & Blount, Davis & Amukamara and pass rush rotation containing:-
Cam Wake
Michael Johnson
Carlos Dunlap
Austen Lane
Greg Hardy
Ozzie Newsome once said, if you draft best player available you end up with a roster full of good players & our BPA will be at a better value.
