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http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/...speaking-dolphins-dont-need-wideout-in-draft/
http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/...nd-dolphins-may-be-leaving-secondary-exposed/
"I’m in the middle of Dolphins breakdowns this week, and the one thing that both my scouting and metric eyes keep seeing over and over again is that their wide receiver situation is a lot better than generally thought.
For example, to give you an idea of how good Ted Ginn, Jr. is, consider this: His 8.8 YPA ranked 18th among wideouts with 80 or more pass attempts. He actually ranked 17th in YPA of WRs with 90 or more passes, but since he had only 90 attempts, I didn’t want to skew his ranking by setting him right at the bottom bar. He doesn’t need stat gimmicks to show that he truly is that good and has the skills to be a solid #1.
Or take Greg Camarillo. Chad Pennington said that Camarillo really understands how to get open, and his short pass numbers illustrate that very well. His 87.7% success rate at that depth level was 2nd best in the league, and his 7.5 YPA was 6th best. That certainly says he may already be a good #2, and given some time to work with Pennington, he should be able to improve on these totals.
If those two weren’t enough, the Fins also have Davone Bess. Bess’s specialty was medium passes, where his 11.2 YPA on 21 passes put him in similar company to some much bigger names – Lee Evans (25 attempts, 283 yards, 11.3 YPA), Greg Jennings (34 attempts, 377 yards, 11.1 YPA) and Eddie Royal (22 attempts, 252 yards, 11.5 YPA). Bess has a tremendous understanding of pass offenses that he picked up while playing for June Jones in Hawaii, so his upside with experience could also be a lot higher.
Miami also has good flex tight ends in Anthony Fasano and David Martin, so they may not even need to develop a strong #4 WR.
Add these totals to Parcells’ history of having teams without a bona fide #1 wideout, and consider the Dolphins’ needs in pass coverage , and it probably means Miami will go for a cornerback over a wide receiver with their first pick in the draft."
http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/...nd-dolphins-may-be-leaving-secondary-exposed/
I want to start this post by saying that I have nothing but respect for the way Bill Parcells builds teams. He has overseen numerous personnel reclamation projects in his career and has achieved an impressive level of success in all of them.
Prior success notwithstanding, I must admit to being perplexed by the way the Dolphins are rebuilding their secondary. At the end of the 2008 season, Miami’s secondary consisted of Will Allen at LCB, Andre Goodman at RCB, Renaldo Hill at FS, Yeremiah Bell at SS and a trio of potential nickel cornerbacks in Jason Allen, Nathan Jones and Joey Thomas.
The player with the best metrics of this group last year was Goodman (6.7 YPA, 51.2% success rate), and he signed a free-agent deal with Denver. I can see why Miami would let him go; he will be 31 this season and the Broncos gave him a reported $10 million in guarantees. Hill’s situation was identical to Goodman’s in many ways, as he garnered $3 million from Denver and will also be 31 this year.
Those moves left the Dolphins two secondary members short of a full deck, and it is how they approached filling these spots that have me scratching my head.
For the free safety spot, Miami signed free-agent safety Gibril Wilson. Wilson has been in the league for five seasons and has manned the strong safety spot in four of those years. In the other year (2007), Wilson played FS for the Giants and posted deep assist metrics that were among the worst in the league (deep assist metrics being the passes in which Wilson was helping someone else with over-the-top coverage). He allowed the third-most deep assist yards and had the 12th-highest YPA on those passes.
For the vacant CB spot, the Dolphins signed former Cardinals starter Eric Green. One of the reasons Green is no longer a starter is that his 9.3 YPA last year ranked 9th worst among qualifying cornerbacks (those with 30+ attempts).
It isn’t just the metrics that make these moves perplexing. There were many quality free agents on the market with metrics that were appreciably better than Green’s both this past year and in previous years. The cornerback market was expensive, and that might have kept the Aqua and Orange from some candidates, but there were some relative bargains out there (Bryant McFadden and his two-year, $10 million deal with Arizona comes to mind) that the Fins might have been better off pursuing. There were also a couple of ballhawking free safeties they could have signed in lieu of moving Wilson to a spot his history says he can’t handle.
Maybe I’m wrong on all of this and Parcells will once again prove to be a genius, but I can’t help thinking having a weak secondary will be especially difficult in the A.F.C. East in 2009. Not only will Miami have to face New England and Buffalo, but it will also have Houston, Indianapolis and New Orleans on its schedule. That means seven of their games will be against teams with high-powered passing attacks. That does not seem to bode well for the Dolphins’ chances of repeating as division champs.