yolli71
Club Member
Am I one of few who's dumb enough to pay for ESPN Insiders or something? I saw an article today at work about KC Joyner's SB Sleepers and I figured it would be posted immediately on this website as I was busy at work today. I just logged in now and see that nothing is posted, so i figured I'd go ahead and do it since I don't see it anywhere. Anyway, he said that Miami, the Vikings, and the Giants are his 3 sleeper SB picks. I like Joyner as he's a metrics guy instead of a typical media know-nothing.
The NFL does not appear to be in the midst of a true dynasty -- sorry, Seahawks fans -- so who could come out of nowhere to win the Super Bowl? Three teams fit the bill.
(Note: The passing game metrics listed below include yards gained on penalties such as defensive pass interference and illegal contact.)
[h=2]Miami Dolphins[/h]
If Ryan Tannehill continues to improve, Miami has enough talent to aim for much more than an AFC East championship. Brad Barr/USA TODAY SportsThe Dolphins haven't made the playoffs since the 2008 season and have not won a playoff contest since the 2000 campaign.
This might be about to change. A recent study by a Harvard student listed Miami as the favorite to win the AFC East. But they have the goods to aim ever higher than that.
Ryan Tannehill's improved decision-making: Tannehill has come a long way in three pro seasons. As a rookie, he ranked tied for 16th in the NFL with a 2.1 percent bad decision rate (BDR), which was identical to his BDR in his last year at Texas A&M. But he seems to have corrected these issues. In each of his past two seasons, he's posted a BDR in the top 10, which is a promising sign that Tannehill is growing into his role as a franchise quarterback.
A bolstered vertical passing game: Tannehill's biggest weakness has been his inability to consistently complete long passes. That could change with the additions of Kenny Stills and rookie DeVante Parker. Last season, Stills ranked second among qualifying wide receivers in vertical yards per attempt and tied for fourth on stretch vertical ypa (throws of 20 yards or more). Parker's 19.9 yards-per-catch average ranked 10th in the FBS last season. This combination could dramatically improve Tannehill's subpar 2014 numbers on vertical and stretch-vertical passes -- 29th and 34th overall, respectively.
An underrated running game: Miami finished first in the league last year in GBP, which gauges overall rushing game production. Even if the Dolphins decline a bit in this category, they still will have an upper-tier ground game, especially if rookie Jay Ajayi can live up to his lofty potential.
Add these elements to a highly favorable pass defense schedule (ninth-easiest in the league according to my analysis), and Miami should be able to make some noise in the NFL postseason.
- Comment
The NFL does not appear to be in the midst of a true dynasty -- sorry, Seahawks fans -- so who could come out of nowhere to win the Super Bowl? Three teams fit the bill.
(Note: The passing game metrics listed below include yards gained on penalties such as defensive pass interference and illegal contact.)
[h=2]Miami Dolphins[/h]
If Ryan Tannehill continues to improve, Miami has enough talent to aim for much more than an AFC East championship. Brad Barr/USA TODAY SportsThe Dolphins haven't made the playoffs since the 2008 season and have not won a playoff contest since the 2000 campaign.
This might be about to change. A recent study by a Harvard student listed Miami as the favorite to win the AFC East. But they have the goods to aim ever higher than that.
Ryan Tannehill's improved decision-making: Tannehill has come a long way in three pro seasons. As a rookie, he ranked tied for 16th in the NFL with a 2.1 percent bad decision rate (BDR), which was identical to his BDR in his last year at Texas A&M. But he seems to have corrected these issues. In each of his past two seasons, he's posted a BDR in the top 10, which is a promising sign that Tannehill is growing into his role as a franchise quarterback.
A bolstered vertical passing game: Tannehill's biggest weakness has been his inability to consistently complete long passes. That could change with the additions of Kenny Stills and rookie DeVante Parker. Last season, Stills ranked second among qualifying wide receivers in vertical yards per attempt and tied for fourth on stretch vertical ypa (throws of 20 yards or more). Parker's 19.9 yards-per-catch average ranked 10th in the FBS last season. This combination could dramatically improve Tannehill's subpar 2014 numbers on vertical and stretch-vertical passes -- 29th and 34th overall, respectively.
An underrated running game: Miami finished first in the league last year in GBP, which gauges overall rushing game production. Even if the Dolphins decline a bit in this category, they still will have an upper-tier ground game, especially if rookie Jay Ajayi can live up to his lofty potential.
Add these elements to a highly favorable pass defense schedule (ninth-easiest in the league according to my analysis), and Miami should be able to make some noise in the NFL postseason.
While I like his conclusion, I hate metrics. Sooooooo ... Grain of salt. :idk:
