Killing Time 7/ Our Starting Offense Leaves our Defense Wishing Upon a Star!
After reading 100s of posts and gathering opinions over the last 8 months that I have been on this site, I decided to compile some stats, and some observation on our offensive performance over the last 2 years. Since they get the blame for all our pains and no gain (in Post Season appearance), I decided to put together my opinion. Many of points on this topic has been touched on before.
In reality, most of us Dolfans have blamed practically all of our offensive woes last year, on the offensive line. This unit gets the blame, for our lack of production from some of our WRs, RBs, and QBs. This unit took a turn for the worse last year. Now there is no question about this unit’s lack of production, since the FO has let go of 4 out of its 5 starters last year.
We seem to think, that somehow, either by game planning or lack of execution (team/player/coach/FO), the team has not been successful, down the stretch, when it matters to win games. By down the stretch I mean 3rd and 4th quarters.
Sure good offensive teams have a higher % of winning games down the stretch NE and Indi come to mind. But when we are facing an opponent, with strong offensive units, our defense needs the backing that for quite a few years, we have not been capable of. They seem to be always looking at the stars for help…
ray:
There were few questions, in this research, I needed answered…
Q- Why should the Offensive unit get all the blame for the last 4 years?
Q- Now, is it the Offensive unit or the pieces of the unit that have issues, for the last few years?
Now after the research I noticed a trend that, IMO narrows down the next offensive problems to the current starting QB.
Q- Why with such a strong OL, average WR Corp, a Pro-bowl RB, an average QB and a strong defensive unit in 2002 did we only go 9-7, and faded again in December?
Q- Why is this team in 2003, offensively executing decently, the 1st half of games (1st -2nd quarters), but lack in execution in the 2nd half (3rd-4th quarters) of them as well?
Q- Why was this offensive unit executing the same way in 2002?
So why, can’t we break out of this 9-7, 10-6, 11-5 and Post Season-less (if that is a word) hump?
I don’t have a solution or an answer, because if I did, I would be writing “Get Rich Quick Schemes. I do have an opinion though, based on one lonely trend, he seems to be the cog that effects the wheels in the offense, and though I hate to say it, his initials are JF.
I did a small researched, using the last 2 years stats, to see why our offensive unit is inconsistent, and only used the QB that has been our starter for the last 2 years, at times beating great defenses, and struggling against poor ones. I was looking to answer those questions above.
I know that some of you don’t take the QBR as a good source of determining talent or skills. Well, it is not meant for that, but meant to be used in evaluating the PERFORMANCE OF THE QB period…
J Fielder had a QBR of 87.2%, in the 1st half of games, this past year (2003).
J Fiedler also had a QBR 56.4%, in the 2nd half of games, this past year (2003). Stats showed that K Stewart, was the only QB with a worst QBR (in the 2nd half), than him in the NFL this past year.
Well we can think that with 2002’s OL, the numbers should be a lot better that the numbers last year, but reality sinks in and still shows the same amount of variance between the 1st and 2nd half numbers.
His QBR in his 1st half of games 2002 was 99.8%, all 10 games started.
In his 2nd half of games, his QBR was 68.6% though better than 2003 stats, their still a large variance.
This OL did very well, giving JF very good QBR #s at the half. But, this variance of 30 points in both years, still show the trend, of his below average performance in the 2nd half, even with a solid OL.
I also looked to see if, their was significant difference before and after his thumb injury in 2002, while analyzing his 1st and 2nd half stats, and here is something that was definitely noticeable.
He had a better performance, 106.9% QBR in the 1st half of the final 4 games in 2002, returning form injury, than in the 1st half of the 1st 6 games of that season.
But we lost the last 2 games in that month, why? His performance again went south, with a QBR in the 2nd half of those games, of 55.5%
That IMHO, tells me that JF feels pressure and flusters in the 2nd half of games, when opponents change game plans on him, he seems never really to move past that point and tries to do more than he physically can. I really think that, even if you would place him behind NE OL last year, they would have never had the same record, seeing how Brady rallied the team numerous times from the agony of defeat.
Bottom line, JF is not a QB that has shown a consistency to win down the stretch, the last 4 years IMO proves it, when our defense needs its backup, it keeps wishing upon a start…ray:
eace:
After reading 100s of posts and gathering opinions over the last 8 months that I have been on this site, I decided to compile some stats, and some observation on our offensive performance over the last 2 years. Since they get the blame for all our pains and no gain (in Post Season appearance), I decided to put together my opinion. Many of points on this topic has been touched on before.
In reality, most of us Dolfans have blamed practically all of our offensive woes last year, on the offensive line. This unit gets the blame, for our lack of production from some of our WRs, RBs, and QBs. This unit took a turn for the worse last year. Now there is no question about this unit’s lack of production, since the FO has let go of 4 out of its 5 starters last year.
We seem to think, that somehow, either by game planning or lack of execution (team/player/coach/FO), the team has not been successful, down the stretch, when it matters to win games. By down the stretch I mean 3rd and 4th quarters.
Sure good offensive teams have a higher % of winning games down the stretch NE and Indi come to mind. But when we are facing an opponent, with strong offensive units, our defense needs the backing that for quite a few years, we have not been capable of. They seem to be always looking at the stars for help…
ray: There were few questions, in this research, I needed answered…
Q- Why should the Offensive unit get all the blame for the last 4 years?
Q- Now, is it the Offensive unit or the pieces of the unit that have issues, for the last few years?
Now after the research I noticed a trend that, IMO narrows down the next offensive problems to the current starting QB.
Q- Why with such a strong OL, average WR Corp, a Pro-bowl RB, an average QB and a strong defensive unit in 2002 did we only go 9-7, and faded again in December?
Q- Why is this team in 2003, offensively executing decently, the 1st half of games (1st -2nd quarters), but lack in execution in the 2nd half (3rd-4th quarters) of them as well?
Q- Why was this offensive unit executing the same way in 2002?
So why, can’t we break out of this 9-7, 10-6, 11-5 and Post Season-less (if that is a word) hump?
I don’t have a solution or an answer, because if I did, I would be writing “Get Rich Quick Schemes. I do have an opinion though, based on one lonely trend, he seems to be the cog that effects the wheels in the offense, and though I hate to say it, his initials are JF.
I did a small researched, using the last 2 years stats, to see why our offensive unit is inconsistent, and only used the QB that has been our starter for the last 2 years, at times beating great defenses, and struggling against poor ones. I was looking to answer those questions above.
I know that some of you don’t take the QBR as a good source of determining talent or skills. Well, it is not meant for that, but meant to be used in evaluating the PERFORMANCE OF THE QB period…
J Fielder had a QBR of 87.2%, in the 1st half of games, this past year (2003).
J Fiedler also had a QBR 56.4%, in the 2nd half of games, this past year (2003). Stats showed that K Stewart, was the only QB with a worst QBR (in the 2nd half), than him in the NFL this past year.
Well we can think that with 2002’s OL, the numbers should be a lot better that the numbers last year, but reality sinks in and still shows the same amount of variance between the 1st and 2nd half numbers.
His QBR in his 1st half of games 2002 was 99.8%, all 10 games started.
In his 2nd half of games, his QBR was 68.6% though better than 2003 stats, their still a large variance.
This OL did very well, giving JF very good QBR #s at the half. But, this variance of 30 points in both years, still show the trend, of his below average performance in the 2nd half, even with a solid OL.
I also looked to see if, their was significant difference before and after his thumb injury in 2002, while analyzing his 1st and 2nd half stats, and here is something that was definitely noticeable.
He had a better performance, 106.9% QBR in the 1st half of the final 4 games in 2002, returning form injury, than in the 1st half of the 1st 6 games of that season.
But we lost the last 2 games in that month, why? His performance again went south, with a QBR in the 2nd half of those games, of 55.5%
That IMHO, tells me that JF feels pressure and flusters in the 2nd half of games, when opponents change game plans on him, he seems never really to move past that point and tries to do more than he physically can. I really think that, even if you would place him behind NE OL last year, they would have never had the same record, seeing how Brady rallied the team numerous times from the agony of defeat.
Bottom line, JF is not a QB that has shown a consistency to win down the stretch, the last 4 years IMO proves it, when our defense needs its backup, it keeps wishing upon a start…
ray: eace:
