Killing Time 9/Can DW Have the Same Success as B Bilichick?

[Disnardo]

Hello everyone, hope to enlighten some of us on some insight in comparing the Cleveland team BB coached from 1991-1995, and the New England team he is has currently coached over the last 4 years (2000-2003). Now this is just my opinion and I might be shooting from left field, so take it for what it's worth... :D

What has been the change/s that has brought him 2 SB victories over the last 3 years? He had overall as good or better defense and offense (stats wise) in that 1993-1994 Cleveland team, than the NE 2001-2003 SB teams. So the teams had performed as well (stats wise) but got different results.

Now for starters, this Cleveland team had a combined 36-40 (45%) record during that time, and made the Post Season once in 5 years, where it lost in a Divisional Game.

In 1994, it produce a 11-5 record, which it owed to its TOP TEN defense (sounds familiar?). This defense in 94, gave up 204 points (12.75 ppg) and only let an opponent score more than 20 points once (26) in the regular
season.

After NE missed the Post Season in 1999(with 8-8 record), and taking over the HC job of NE in 2000 from Pete Caroll, BB struggled his first year. The steam produced an uninspiring 5-11 season, but he added players to help build for the future, including an unknown 6th round QB, soon to be SB MVP. After 4 years BB has compiled an inspiring 39-25 (61%) record, 2 SB victories in 3 years, a big change over his last HC venture.

One thing that changed in his Offensive attack was the passing game, short passes which made first downs and the offense was able to maintain possession and keep their Defense off the field. This past year, he had a TOP 10 Defense added to assist their Probowl QB.

Cleveland- (91-95)
Average Offensive production/season-> #19 pass att, #18 comp, #13 YPA , #13 TDs, #18 rsh att, #19 YPA, #22 TDs, #19 total off, and #18 points scored...
Average Defensive production/season-> #20 pass att, #19 YPA, #16 TDs, #17 rsh att, #11 YPA, #11 TDs, #16 total def, and #12 points allowed...

NE-(00-03)
Average Offensive production/season-> #9 pass att,#11 comp, #20 YPA,, #12 TDs, #17 rsh att, #27 YPA, #21 TDs, #20 total off, and #13 points scored...
Average Defensive production/season-> #21 pass att, #11 YPA, #11 TDs, #16 rsh att, #15 YPA, #12 TDs, #18 total def, and #10 points allowed...

I highlighted the stat that really jumped out at me (pass attempts), BB has allowed an increased 12% more passes , than in his previous tenure. They seem to be short passes since the YPA ranking is worst with NE than with Cleveland, and is verified by a better completion ranking than Cleveland's. We have seen T Brady throw many short passes to move the chains and when given the chance connect on long passes for quick strikes.

Now maybe some of you are thinking what would MIA's ranking under DW show, compared to Cleveland and NE? Even though some of you already know, I will spell it out for you...sorry

MIA- (00-03)
Average Offensive production/season-> #31 pass att, #28 comp, #13 YPA, #22 TDs, #7 rsh att, #21 YPA, #9 TDs, #23 total off, and #16 points scored...
Average Defensive production/season-> #13 pass att, #12 YPA, #10 TDs, #12 rsh att, #10 YPA, #8 TDs, #6 total def, and #3 points allowed...

Our proud and overall dominating Defense stands out better than the other 2, but as we have seen it can have its hickup now and then. Our defense over the last 4 years has been the main ingredient that helped this team achieve its 41-23 (64%) record. It was build for that purpose and the CAP hit over that time has proven that, with an average of 4 defensive Probowlers every year, in the last 4 years and only one Offensive Probowler in 2002.

As most already know, the passing attack is lacking on this team, and its gone on for 4 years now. The Offensive Coaches DW has brought in, has for the most part used the rushing attack and has not changed its balance to a passing plan, whether its HC or not, he is ultimately responsible.

It seems to me that from what I've have seen, that many defenses or the better ones have alot of speed added to the DL, LB and DB corps. It's not just the CB that have good speed anymore. Defensive coaches can prepare for one dimensional teams better and can actually dominate. We have seen our defense do it to others as well as seen it done to ourselves...

Bottom line, IMO winning by running and just a good defense to win games is a thing of the past... They don't work well against opponents with a good passing attack, like the ones you see late in the Playoffs...

 

[rafael]

IMO the diff. is Brady. If Pioli had never drafted Brady, then those two SB trophies sit somewhere else and nobody is saying Belichek is a genious (They would still say he's a defensive guy who shouldn't be a head coach). AJF is RS's attempt to duplicate Brady. Young guy, extremely cool under pressure, manages a game well, and can connect on the long pass. If RS is right then, yes DW can have the same success.

I know there are still OL questions, but I believe that an avg. OL with a Brady clone and our skill position players will look very good. I also believe that we have enough talent to be at least an avg. OL by mid-season.

 

[Shula Fan]

I too think Brady is the difference. Without him their Offense ran different. Bledsoe was and still is a statue back there. A opposing D could get to Bledsoe easier then Brady. IMO, some of Brady's completions for first downs would be incomplete or sacks if Brady was in there. That changes the whole game and probably the outcome.

 

[ZOD]

No offense but I think the entire post disregards what I think is the most important difference between Wannestedt and Bellichek. The difference being defensive philosophy.

Bellichek runs a bend but don't break defense.

Wannestedt runs an undersized attacking defense.

As displayed so many times when we play them in the 4th qtr....the difference is enormous!

I think there is too much pressure on our secondary as a result of their run and pass responsibilies. I also feel that JJ and Wanne's VERSION of the 43 attempts to deal with an undersized player availability for NFL defense. Wanne says missed tackles cost the Dolphins alot of wins last year yet he has two defensive ends at 260 pound or under and a middle linebacker that finally admitted that he weighs no more than 230 (and actually plays around 225). Now we're fans and and we don't want to say anything negative about them. Bank on this though. From now until the end of football time a coach from little league to the NFL will give his most superior athlete the ball to run with.

The very best in this defensive alignment have never been this small. While we focus on names and acquisitions could it just be that we are ill informed and the alignment isn't performing? Is this defensive alignment subject to what they choose to defend? For instance....

2003 they ranked 21 in total yardage versus the pass
2002 they ranked 11 in total yardage versus the pass
2001 they ranked 2 in total yardage versus the pass

Now watch the reversal..

2003 they ranked 5th in total yardage versus the run
2002 they ranked 6th in total yardage versus the run
2001 they ranked 17th in total yardage versus the run

2002 may have been the exception as a result of possession time. Our offense ranked first in number attempts in the rush. The reversal of fortune versus the run and pass in 2003 to 2001 is astounding and I don't think it's just happenstance.

 

[ZOD]

Just to add to the bend but don't break point......

New England defense
2003 faced the most attempts in the league versus pass and gave up the 17th most yardage versus the pass. In total pass TD's they ranked 6th meaning they were good.

You can find the same stat in

2001 faced the 23rd most attempts in the pass and gave up 22nd most yardage versus the pass. Total TD's they again ranked 6th.


2003 they faced the 4th least run attempts and gave up the 4th least yardage and ranked 6th in total TD's.

2001 they faced the 13th most run attempts and gave up the 19th most yardage but still they ranked 4th in total TD's.

Bend but don't break.

 

[Disnardo]

Very good points Zod...

 

[MDFINFAN]

So ZOD the difference is personnel with a blend but don't break defensive philosophy

 

[ZOD]

So ZOD the difference is personnel with a blend but don't break defensive philosophy

I think it's in alignment and responsibility that ours is lacking due to the availibility in personnel.

I think I forgot to mention that my views are tainted right now. We're in the middle of switching our little league team to a 53 eagle and hawk defenses. It's very foundation is in the 34. :D

 

[Jimi]

IMO the diff. is Brady. If Pioli had never drafted Brady, then those two SB trophies sit somewhere else and nobody is saying Belichek is a genious (They would still say he's a defensive guy who shouldn't be a head coach). AJF is RS's attempt to duplicate Brady. Young guy, extremely cool under pressure, manages a game well, and can connect on the long pass. If RS is right then, yes DW can have the same success.

I know there are still OL questions, but I believe that an avg. OL with a Brady clone and our skill position players will look very good. I also believe that we have enough talent to be at least an avg. OL by mid-season.

I agree with evrything u wrote. If AJ can b almot as good as Brady i would put money on this team for a SB. If he doesnt get to scared under pressure(which he isnt known for doin) he shoudl b fine. This OL wont b perfect at first, but it will b fine wit time i believe.

 

[GMP-AGAIN]

I too think Brady is the difference. Without him their Offense ran different. Bledsoe was and still is a statue back there. A opposing D could get to Bledsoe easier then Brady. IMO, some of Brady's completions for first downs would be incomplete or sacks if Brady was in there. That changes the whole game and probably the outcome.

I would agree about Brady.

I'd have to add another biggie: BB is a disciplined coach who disciplines players for not doing what they should. I think that is really important. We haven't seen much evidence of DW disciplining.

Another thing is the fact that BB is a really good judge of talent and is also really good at using that talent to their best advantage. It seems since DW has been at Miami, the offense is the same old same old. Just my opinion but there has been little judge of talent by DW (Fiedler is my evidence here as is the offensive line). Also, there is little if any adjustments to what the defense is doing. I just don't like DW's offensive attitude at all.

DW will never be a BB. I'd like to be able to eat my word son that at the end of the season, but it's the way I feel.

 

[brent]

No way Wanny doesn't get canned after this season. Bill Armsparger also had the bend but don't break thing going with the KILLER BEE's.

 

[AquaAssasin]

No offense but I think the entire post disregards what I think is the most important difference between Wannestedt and Bellichek. The difference being defensive philosophy.

Bellichek runs a bend but don't break defense.

Wannestedt runs an undersized attacking defense.

As displayed so many times when we play them in the 4th qtr....the difference is enormous!

I think there is too much pressure on our secondary as a result of their run and pass responsibilies. I also feel that JJ and Wanne's VERSION of the 43 attempts to deal with an undersized player availability for NFL defense. Wanne says missed tackles cost the Dolphins alot of wins last year yet he has two defensive ends at 260 pound or under and a middle linebacker that finally admitted that he weighs no more than 230 (and actually plays around 225). Now we're fans and and we don't want to say anything negative about them. Bank on this though. From now until the end of football time a coach from little league to the NFL will give his most superior athlete the ball to run with.

The very best in this defensive alignment have never been this small. While we focus on names and acquisitions could it just be that we are ill informed and the alignment isn't performing? Is this defensive alignment subject to what they choose to defend? For instance....

2003 they ranked 21 in total yardage versus the pass
2002 they ranked 11 in total yardage versus the pass
2001 they ranked 2 in total yardage versus the pass

Now watch the reversal..

2003 they ranked 5th in total yardage versus the run
2002 they ranked 6th in total yardage versus the run
2001 they ranked 17th in total yardage versus the run

2002 may have been the exception as a result of possession time. Our offense ranked first in number attempts in the rush. The reversal of fortune versus the run and pass in 2003 to 2001 is astounding and I don't think it's just happenstance.

the defense is not the problem...its called no offense to sustain any drives and score

 

[ZOD]

Sure I agree that the offensive production is lacking but the topic is two coaches and two teams. The key word in that sentence being teams. But while we point to offensive drives and scores keep in mind that only five teams ran the ball worse than NE in 2003 in total yards and they ranked 8th in the pass. That is not a stat that screams "drive sustaining".

 

[eltos_lightfoot]

I would just like to point out that some other teams have done well with the same defense that we are running...ie the Cowboys in the early 90's seemed to do ok. I do not think that we need to change our defense. We DO need to pass more, and pass more efficiently.

Personally, I prefer our d to NE's d on a straight up field. We have finally added some depth. Especially in the secondary that was our weak link depth-wise (nickel back anyone?).

 

[AquaAssasin]

Sure I agree that the offensive production is lacking but the topic is two coaches and two teams. The key word in that sentence being teams. But while we point to offensive drives and scores keep in mind that only five teams ran the ball worse than NE in 2003 in total yards and they ranked 8th in the pass. That is not a stat that screams "drive sustaining".

you pass to score and run to win...defense wins championships....

remember they are not a ruinning team and they ran the ball effectively when they needed to. also they utilized their talent to their true potential. theyre offense didnt scare anyone but they had great chemistry and can adjust on the fly..


and by the way bend but dont break sucks...that term was used in the shula days with olivadotti. our defense sucked until we changed schemes..