I'm a MIchigan fan, but I've got family ties to Penn State, and a lot of friends who are big Penn State fans. None of them believe PSU is going to win.
IMO with Mario out, and that defense, they've got a good shot. At the same time, the Michigan defense is by far the best defense they've faced all season (Woodley,Branch,Harris, and Burres are all playing like All-Americans, as is our top CB Leon Hall).
We'll see. IMO I think it will be closer than my friends think.