Loco-Stradamus Sees Extending Tua and Wilkins Still This Year.

[Fin-Loco]

Loco has put on the soothsayer's helm. It's akin to Charles Xavier firing up Cerebro after a couple special mushrooms and with his pants off. The stars have aligned and a future is seen. This future sees Wilkins and Tua get extended still this season. Keep in mind, guaranteed money doesn't count against the cap.

What say you?

 

[superphin]

I don't think they can afford to keep Sieler and Wilkins and honestly, I prefer Sieler.

 

[EPBro]

I don't think they can afford to keep Sieler and Wilkins and honestly, I prefer Sieler.

Tough call. Keep everyone!

 

[Fintastic2124]

I don't think they can afford to keep Sieler and Wilkins and honestly, I prefer Sieler.

I think he'd be cheaper and his motor is nonstop. Wilkins is really good, too, but will likely demand more given his draft status.

 

[NBP81]

This defense blitzes more than everyone but 4 teams, get less pressure than everyone but 3 teams. If they give a big contract to a DT that's not particularly good at rushing the passer, they deserve those stats.

 

[Marino2.0]

This defense blitzes more than everyone but 4 teams, get less pressure than everyone but 3 teams. If they give a big contract to a DT that's not particularly good at rushing the passer, they deserve those stats.

This is fair reasoning, but Wilkins isn’t the problem. The problem is Boyer.

We’re playing one of Raekwon Davis and John Jenkins on over 70% of snaps, we’re playing Jerome Baker on 90% of snaps, and we’re playing one of Elandon Roberts and Duke Riley on over 90% of snaps. We also play 5 DBs on virtually every snap.

That means that on over 70% of our defensive snaps, 8 of our 11 players on the field pose virtually zero threat of rushing the passer.

And of the other three guys we have attacking the passer on any given down, Wilkins and Sieler are good players, but they’re not really pass rushers. They’re 300 pound 3-techs. And we have one of them on the field nearly 100% of the time, and both of them on the field together about 50% of the time.

Practically speaking, what that means is that as long as you don’t let Baker or a safety get a free run to the QB, the Dolphins aren’t getting pressure.

It’s not the personnel’s fault. Phillips, Ingram, AVG, Ogbah, Wilkins, Sieler and now Chubb are all above average to very good pass rushers for their positions. We could choose to play 5 of those guys at a time if we wanted, and we’d wreak havoc on passers. There’s no reason we couldn’t play a front four of Phillips-Wilkins-Ogbah-Chubb, with AVG or Ingram lined up as an OLB on the edge. Nobody is consistently blocking that with less than max protect.

We just don’t do it. For reasons unbeknownst to me, we feel the need to play a nose tackle, two ILBs, and a nickel on nearly every snap.

 

[AquaHawk]

My guess:

Tua: Agree to wait until off-season for extension talks
QB market is waiting for the new Lamar Jackson contract to see how far guaranteed money % has expanded since the Watson deal. The complexity and protracted negotiations may be viewed as an in-season distraction for a team in the playoff hunt. The injury guarantees will obviously be important.

Christian: Best leverage is to sign him now if convinced he’s integral to D success
Wilkins is a top 25 rated DL so he’ll have no problem finding a home. He‘s likely to fetch 4yr, $55-$60mm with $35mm signing bonus. It will be interesting to see what production he brings with Chubb’s addition.

 

[Carne Asada]

This is fair reasoning, but Wilkins isn’t the problem. The problem is Boyer.

We’re playing one of Raekwon Davis and John Jenkins on over 70% of snaps, we’re playing Jerome Baker on 90% of snaps, and we’re playing one of Elandon Roberts and Duke Riley on over 90% of snaps. We also play 5 DBs on virtually every snap.

That means that on over 70% of our defensive snaps, 8 of our 11 players on the field pose virtually zero threat of rushing the passer.

And of the other three guys we have attacking the passer on any given down, Wilkins and Sieler are good players, but they’re not really pass rushers. They’re 300 pound 3-techs. And we have one of them on the field nearly 100% of the time, and both of them on the field together about 50% of the time.

Practically speaking, what that means is that as long as you don’t let Baker or a safety get a free run to the QB, the Dolphins aren’t getting pressure.

It’s not the personnel’s fault. Phillips, Ingram, AVG, Ogbah, Wilkins, Sieler and now Chubb are all above average to very good pass rushers for their positions. We could choose to play 5 of those guys at a time if we wanted, and we’d wreak havoc on passers. There’s no reason we couldn’t play a front four of Phillips-Wilkins-Ogbah-Chubb, with AVG or Ingram lined up as an OLB on the edge. Nobody is consistently blocking that with less than max protect.

We just don’t do it. For reasons unbeknownst to me, we feel the need to play a nose tackle, two ILBs, and a nickel on nearly every snap.

Baker is a good blitzer. He just hasn't been used that way much this year but look at his sack number in 2020 and 2021.

 

[The Ghost]

I’m in no rush to do a deal for either.

I am probably waiting until draft time to lock down a deal for Wilkins. Unless he accepts a team friendly deal before then, he’s not the kind of player that should break our cap 2-3 years from now.

I am going to wait and see what kind of offers I might get for Wilkins. I like a lot of things about him. Only love his energy and leadership. I think he’d be better in a 4-3 so I’m hoping our next DC makes a scheme change. I want to see Phillips and Chubb in a 4-3 as well. At which I would be looking to add another DT as early as possible in the draft. Or sign Daron Payne from Washington for a little more than Wilkins will get and trade CW.

As far Tua goes, we’re half way into a rookie deal. If he steals the show in the playoffs, I’ll pay him, injury concerns and all. A second round loss on the road isn’t going to be enough to open up the check book.

If you lose the AFCC because of the defense, I’ll pay you. We will have more clarity at seasons end.

 

[djphinfan]

wilkins or Seilers contract should not be that big..

Tua I believe would sign a team friendly deal so we can continue to build around him. He would be smart to stay with Mcd.

 

[steveo style]

What great insight. Hopefully the scheme improves in the 2nd half like it did last year.

 

[NBP81]

This is fair reasoning, but Wilkins isn’t the problem. The problem is Boyer.

We’re playing one of Raekwon Davis and John Jenkins on over 70% of snaps, we’re playing Jerome Baker on 90% of snaps, and we’re playing one of Elandon Roberts and Duke Riley on over 90% of snaps. We also play 5 DBs on virtually every snap.

That means that on over 70% of our defensive snaps, 8 of our 11 players on the field pose virtually zero threat of rushing the passer.

And of the other three guys we have attacking the passer on any given down, Wilkins and Sieler are good players, but they’re not really pass rushers. They’re 300 pound 3-techs. And we have one of them on the field nearly 100% of the time, and both of them on the field together about 50% of the time.

Practically speaking, what that means is that as long as you don’t let Baker or a safety get a free run to the QB, the Dolphins aren’t getting pressure.

It’s not the personnel’s fault. Phillips, Ingram, AVG, Ogbah, Wilkins, Sieler and now Chubb are all above average to very good pass rushers for their positions. We could choose to play 5 of those guys at a time if we wanted, and we’d wreak havoc on passers. There’s no reason we couldn’t play a front four of Phillips-Wilkins-Ogbah-Chubb, with AVG or Ingram lined up as an OLB on the edge. Nobody is consistently blocking that with less than max protect.

We just don’t do it. For reasons unbeknownst to me, we feel the need to play a nose tackle, two ILBs, and a nickel on nearly every snap.

Great post! And all valid points. Im not going to tell you Boyer isnt at fault here. I dont think he's a good DC, no argument here.

Im just looking at the big picture, when it comes to allocating assets($/picks) to different position groups on your team based on strategy. Defenses really cant afford to be bad at pass defense these days, you have to be decent at either putting pressure on the QB or defending passes in the backfield. Ideally both but you can get by with one if the other is elite.

Currently, Fins are bad at both and I just dont see how giving Wilkins a boatload solves any of those problems. Chubb was an urgent need, Wilkins? Not so much.