Luck? A look at #1 overall picks in the last 15 years or so

[where's th'fish]

Now, personally, I think sucking-for-Luck reveals an epic personality fail. However, rather than talk about how disappointed I am in many of my brothers in arms, I thought it would be interesting to look at some facts and analyze objectively if losing is indeed the fastest way to winning. Since 1998 11 QBs have been selected #1 overall in the NFL draft. Have a look at them yourself:

1998	Peyton Manning	Quarterback	Tennessee	Indianapolis Colts
1999	Tim Couch	Quarterback	Kentucky	Cleveland Browns
2000	Courtney Brown	Defensive end	Penn State	Cleveland Browns
2001	Michael Vick	Quarterback	Virginia Tech	Atlanta Falcons
2002	David Carr	Quarterback	Fresno State	Houston Texans
2003	Carson Palmer	Quarterback	USC	Cincinnati Bengals
2004	Eli Manning	Quarterback	Ole Miss	San Diego Chargers (traded to the New York Giants)
2005	Alex Smith	Quarterback	Utah	San Francisco 49ers
2006	Mario Williams	Defensive end	North Carolina State	Houston Texans
2007	JaMarcus Russell	Quarterback	LSU	Oakland Raiders
2008	Jake Long	Offensive Tackle	Michigan	Miami Dolphins
2009	Matthew Stafford	Quarterback	Georgia	Detroit Lions
2010	Sam Bradford	Quarterback	Oklahoma	St. Louis Rams
2011	Cam Newton	Quarterback	Auburn	Carolina Panthers

(players in yellow have made the Pro Bowl)


How many of those QBs have been able to successfully change the losing culture of the team that drafted them? One? Two? The Giants didn't have much of a losing culture when Eli got there, as they'd been to the playoffs only the year before.

It's worth noting that of the 4 QBs who have made the Pro Bowl, 3 are not with the team who drafted them right now. Eli refused to play for the Chargers and Palmer refused to continue playing for the Bengals. Vick didn't blossom until he was out of Atlanta, even if he did have to spend a year or two in jail first.

And something else to bear in mind:

PFT reported in recent days that Luck felt Suck-for-Luckers were not the kind of fans he wanted to play for and, on a separate note a couple of days later, that Luck might make a power play and force the team that drafts him #1 overall to trade him Elway-style. So if we get the #1 overall pick and draft Luck, please remember to open your eyes wide in fake surprise if he decides he doesn't want to play for us at all, but that he'd rather go to Denver, instead. Just like Eli preferred the 4-12 Giants to the Chargers.

 

[erralyn]

Too bad Denver is also actively trying to SFL. Guess that should disqualify them, too.

 

[nyjunc]

Now, personally, I think sucking-for-Luck reveals an epic personality fail. However, rather than talk about how disappointed I am in many of my brothers in arms, I thought it would be interesting to look at some facts and analyze objectively if losing is indeed the fastest way to winning. Since 1998 11 QBs have been selected #1 overall in the NFL draft. Have a look at them yourself:

1998	Peyton Manning	Quarterback	Tennessee	Indianapolis Colts
1999	Tim Couch	Quarterback	Kentucky	Cleveland Browns
2000	Courtney Brown	Defensive end	Penn State	Cleveland Browns
2001	Michael Vick	Quarterback	Virginia Tech	Atlanta Falcons
2002	David Carr	Quarterback	Fresno State	Houston Texans
2003	Carson Palmer	Quarterback	USC	Cincinnati Bengals
2004	Eli Manning	Quarterback	Ole Miss	San Diego Chargers (traded to the New York Giants)
2005	Alex Smith	Quarterback	Utah	San Francisco 49ers
2006	Mario Williams	Defensive end	North Carolina State	Houston Texans
2007	JaMarcus Russell	Quarterback	LSU	Oakland Raiders
2008	Jake Long	Offensive Tackle	Michigan	Miami Dolphins
2009	Matthew Stafford	Quarterback	Georgia	Detroit Lions
2010	Sam Bradford	Quarterback	Oklahoma	St. Louis Rams
2011	Cam Newton	Quarterback	Auburn	Carolina Panthers

(players in yellow have made the Pro Bowl)


How many of those QBs have been able to successfully change the losing culture of the team that drafted them? One? Two? The Giants didn't have much of a losing culture when Eli got there, as they'd been to the playoffs only the year before.

It's worth noting that of the 4 QBs who have made the Pro Bowl, 3 are not with the team who drafted them right now. Eli refused to play for the Chargers and Palmer refused to continue playing for the Bengals. Vick didn't blossom until he was out of Atlanta, even if he did have to spend a year or two in jail first.

And something else to bear in mind:

PFT reported in recent days that Luck felt Suck-for-Luckers were not the kind of fans he wanted to play for and, on a separate note a couple of days later, that Luck might make a power play and force the team that drafts him #1 overall to trade him Elway-style. So if we get the #1 overall pick and draft Luck, please remember to open your eyes wide in fake surprise if he decides he doesn't want to play for us at all, but that he'd rather go to Denver, instead. Just like Eli preferred the 4-12 Giants to the Chargers.

I would say none change a losing culture.

Indy was in the title game and made thre playoffs 2 of the 3 years before Peyton.

Atl was in the SB 3 years before Vick

Cincy has had 2 playoff seasons which are huge for Cincy but the losing culture never went away

The Giants were in the SB 4 years before Eli and a playoff team 2 years before him


The only guy on this list who you could look back on and say "we should have lost to get him" was Peyton. Luck looks like a sure thing but there is no such thing.

 

[TKAllDay]

The only guy on this list who you could look back on and say "we should have lost to get him" was Peyton. Luck looks like a sure thing but there is no such thing.

true. Id really hate to draft Luck and have him turn into a Mark Sanchez. But I guess that is the risk we have to take if we get the top pick

 

[datruth55]

Matthew Stafford is changing the culture in Detroit but outside of Detroit and Cincy all of those franchises enjoyed some level of success before drafting their QBs. They certainly didn't have the longevity of losing we've had over these last 10 years.

 

[Jessie Z!]

10 outta 14 aint bad.

 

[Vaark]

I would say none change a losing culture.

Indy was in the title game and made thre playoffs 2 of the 3 years before Peyton.

Atl was in the SB 3 years before Vick

Cincy has had 2 playoff seasons which are huge for Cincy but the losing culture never went away

The Giants were in the SB 4 years before Eli and a playoff team 2 years before him


The only guy on this list who you could look back on and say "we should have lost to get him" was Peyton. Luck looks like a sure thing but there is no such thing.

Junk, i was wading through this thread on TGG earlier today and will admit I was surprised that there do exist some "realists" on your home board. However, from your own answer, it doesn't look like you're one of them. :idk:

Link: GangGreen Forum "Would You Trade Sanchez For 2 1st Round Picks" Thread

 

[HarryBagpipe]

Pointless thread.

 

[datruth55]

true. Id really hate to draft Luck and have him turn into a Mark Sanchez. But I guess that is the risk we have to take if we get the top pick

You fail as a franchise if you don't even try to get a QB though IMO. Get the franchise QB, then you can take a guy late in the draft as a developmental guy that maybe you can flip for picks...Philly has been doing it forever and so has the Packers. Look at the guys that Green Bay has traded while having Brett Favre at the helm...Aaron Brooks, Matt Haselbeck and Mark Brunell...Matt Flynn will probably be next.

 

[nyjunc]

true. Id really hate to draft Luck and have him turn into a Mark Sanchez. But I guess that is the risk we have to take if we get the top pick

You;d be thrilled if you had a Sanchez but not thrilled enough to tank a season.

Matthew Stafford is changing the culture in Detroit but outside of Detroit and Cincy all of those franchises enjoyed some level of success before drafting their QBs. They certainly didn't have the longevity of losing we've had over these last 10 years.

Donkey Kong Suh is changing the culture.

 

[datruth55]

Donkey Kong Suh is changing the culture.

Suh was there last year and they didn't start 5-1. Stafford staying healthy is a big reason for their turnaround.

 

[Scott Andrew]

I would rather have "almost" every QB on the that list over Henne, now look at where Luck is ranked as a prospect and compare that to the list above... that makes a pretty big difference to either suck for the 1st overall pick or not to

 

[HarryBagpipe]

Junk, i was wading through this thread on TGG earlier today and will admit I was surprised that there do exist some "realists" on your home board. However, from your own answer, it doesn't look like you're one of them. :idk:

Link: GangGreen Forum "Would You Trade Sanchez For 2 1st Round Picks" Thread

Lol. They might and I mean might get a third if a team was desperate but more likely a fourth

 

[nyjunc]

Suh was there last year and they didn't start 5-1. Stafford staying healthy is a big reason for their turnaround.

Suh is the guy bringing toughness to that team. Stafford was there last year and the year before and they were 3-10 in games he started. It's not just Suh, there are many factors including Stafford's development but I believe Suh is the guy who changed the culture.

---------- Post added at 04:07 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:07 PM ----------

Lol. They might and I mean might get a third if a team was desperate but more likely a fourth

Carson palmer just got at worst a 1st and a 2nd, sanchez is better than Palmer and younger. Hopefully Miami hires you as their GM.

 

[jlfin]

Sometimes if you have the top pick in the draft and you don't have a QB, you are pressured to draft the highest rated one even if there is no consensus i.e Couch, Smith, Russell etc. Those can be hit or miss. However, every couple of yrs or so, there is a QB who is a consensus top pick i.e Aikman, Stafford, Eli Manning etc who is usually a hit and helps your franchise and then every decade or so is a guy that is not only a consensus top pick, but is felt to be an exceptional prospect with no obvious weakness i.e Elway, Manning. There was a lot of buzz around both of them in the season leading up to the draft. Those guys are usually future HOF'ers. Luck appears to be in this latter category. I have not heard a single doubt or reservation from any NFL personnel guy. So, the odds are certainly in his favor and it is ridiculous to lump him in with ALL QB's who were taken number 1 overall. Some drafts are just better than others.
Recall, the yr Aikman was drafted was a very strong yr. I believe the only bust in the top 5 was Mandarich. (Aikman, Mandarich, Barry Sanders, Deion Sanders, Junior Seau if my memory serves me correctly). That was a hell of a top 5. When the Phins had the number 2 pick they drafted Ronnie Brown and Alex Smith went no. 1. Neither Smith or Rodgers really stood out at the time. The Phins out of necessity should have gambled on Rodgers primarily because they didn't have a legitimate QB.