Merged: For the optimists: Bleak playoff outlook in detail
The AFC East race in painful detail, as of now
The playoff outlook isn’t that complicated this year, mostly because it’s so bleak. However, there have been posts popping up this week that get it wrong – for instance, claiming that Miami must win out and New England must lose out – so for the sake of clarity, and because I’m a little sick this way, I figured I’d break it down in detail.
Following are how things will stand following each of the four possible outcomes of the Fins-Chargers and Bills-Pats games on Sunday. They are listed in the order of most favorable to us, down to least (with least, in this case, meaning complete elimination from all playoff hopes).
Miami beats San Diego & New England loses to Buffalo
Obviously, this is the best outcome for Sunday, and keeps the most playoff chances in play. This is also the only scenario in which we are not entirely dependent on the Jets beating the Pats in two weeks.
If Miami wins out to finish 9-7, the Pats must still lose once before the Fins-Pats game (not counting Sunday), since Miami cannot win a 9-7 tiebreak. However, that extra Pats loss can be to Tampa; it does not need to be to the Jets. This is potentially critical difference, considering that Tampa is now 8-4 while the Jets are 2-10 (and the Pats look vulnerable).
Miami could also lose the Tennessee game, but no others, to finish 8-8 and win the division via tiebreak – but that would require the Pats to lose to the Jets, not the Bucs.
Of course, if the Pats went on to lose all remaining games, the Fins could lose to the Titans or Jets and finish a game ahead, 8-8 vs. 7-9.
However, even if the Pats lose to the Bills, Bucs and Jets, and Miami wins its next three, the Fins must still win in New England to take the division. In other words, there is no possible way for Miami to clinch the division before the final game, or without winning it.
Just to be thorough: if Miami wins and New England loses, the Fins cannot win an even less likely 7-9 tiebreak for the division. Any tiebreak vs. the Pats requires that we split our two games and both finish 3-3 in the division. With three games left to play after Sunday, including two division games, if Miami were to lose twice then one of them must be a division game, leaving us 2-4 in the division.
Miami & New England both lose
If Miami loses Sunday, but then wins out to finish 8-8, the Pats must lose to the Jets. This gives Miami the division via tiebreak at 8-8. A Pats loss to Tampa instead of the Jets will not help. Pats losses to Tampa AND the Jets won’t make much difference either – we would still have to win the final game in New England. The only difference is we’d win the division 8-8 vs. 7-9, instead of via tiebreak at 8-8.
However, if the Pats lose their final four to finish 7-9, Miami could lose the San Diego AND Tennessee games and win the division via 7-9 tiebreak, with a better ‘common games’ record (4-4 vs. 3-5). Or, of course, we could simply win the last three and win it 8-8 vs. 7-9.
Miami & New England both win
Miami would need to win its final three to finish 9-7, and New England must lose its final three (Bucs, Jets, Fins) to finish 8-8. There is no other way, since Miami already cannot win a 9-7 division tiebreak, and with the Pats beating the Bills, we could not win an 8-8 tiebreak either. If the Pats win Sunday, we must win the division outright, with a better record, and that could only happen at 9-7 vs. 8-8.
This outcome is slightly worse than if the Fins and Pats both lose Sunday, because if we both lose then we need the Jets to beat the Pats, while if we both win then we need the Jets AND the Bucs to do it.
Miami loses & New England wins
New England clinches the division. Turn out the lights, the party’s over...
(Am I the only one who still misses Dandy Don?)
The Buffalo wildcard
No, the Bills can’t win a wildcard – they’re already eliminated from that. But if Miami and New England finish 8-8, and Buffalo wins its final four to finish 8-8 also, the Bills can take the division, if the Pats lose two more division games. This seems unlikely, given that Buffalo must play Denver and Cincinnati, but you never know. Miami cannot win a three-way tiebreak at 8-8 – it would be either the Bills or Pats.
Buffalo could of course also figure into a three-way tiebreak at 7-9, but this seems even less likely. However, it’s possible (but not guaranteed) for Miami to win a three-way, 7-9 tiebreak.
The real wildcard
Miami has almost no hope of winning a wildcard playoff spot. We might already be eliminated from this mathematically, but it’s complicated to figure out. We are definitely eliminated from the first wildcard spot, at least.
However, if Miami loses Sunday than we are definitely, mathematically out of the wildcard chase completely. (We might also be out of it even with a win, depending on what happens elsewhere.)
Bottom line for Sunday
Both games are important, but by a slight margin, New England losing is more important than Miami winning:
If the Pats win in the early game, they clinch if Miami loses in the late one, or by winning any one remaining game, or with any other Miami loss.
If the Pats lose, then Miami can really put the pressure on by upsetting the Chargers. But if we lose also, our chances can still remain alive until the Pats-Jets game two weeks from Monday night - even if the Pats beat Tampa next week.
The AFC East race in painful detail, as of now
The playoff outlook isn’t that complicated this year, mostly because it’s so bleak. However, there have been posts popping up this week that get it wrong – for instance, claiming that Miami must win out and New England must lose out – so for the sake of clarity, and because I’m a little sick this way, I figured I’d break it down in detail.
Following are how things will stand following each of the four possible outcomes of the Fins-Chargers and Bills-Pats games on Sunday. They are listed in the order of most favorable to us, down to least (with least, in this case, meaning complete elimination from all playoff hopes).
Miami beats San Diego & New England loses to Buffalo
Obviously, this is the best outcome for Sunday, and keeps the most playoff chances in play. This is also the only scenario in which we are not entirely dependent on the Jets beating the Pats in two weeks.
If Miami wins out to finish 9-7, the Pats must still lose once before the Fins-Pats game (not counting Sunday), since Miami cannot win a 9-7 tiebreak. However, that extra Pats loss can be to Tampa; it does not need to be to the Jets. This is potentially critical difference, considering that Tampa is now 8-4 while the Jets are 2-10 (and the Pats look vulnerable).
Miami could also lose the Tennessee game, but no others, to finish 8-8 and win the division via tiebreak – but that would require the Pats to lose to the Jets, not the Bucs.
Of course, if the Pats went on to lose all remaining games, the Fins could lose to the Titans or Jets and finish a game ahead, 8-8 vs. 7-9.
However, even if the Pats lose to the Bills, Bucs and Jets, and Miami wins its next three, the Fins must still win in New England to take the division. In other words, there is no possible way for Miami to clinch the division before the final game, or without winning it.
Just to be thorough: if Miami wins and New England loses, the Fins cannot win an even less likely 7-9 tiebreak for the division. Any tiebreak vs. the Pats requires that we split our two games and both finish 3-3 in the division. With three games left to play after Sunday, including two division games, if Miami were to lose twice then one of them must be a division game, leaving us 2-4 in the division.
Miami & New England both lose
If Miami loses Sunday, but then wins out to finish 8-8, the Pats must lose to the Jets. This gives Miami the division via tiebreak at 8-8. A Pats loss to Tampa instead of the Jets will not help. Pats losses to Tampa AND the Jets won’t make much difference either – we would still have to win the final game in New England. The only difference is we’d win the division 8-8 vs. 7-9, instead of via tiebreak at 8-8.
However, if the Pats lose their final four to finish 7-9, Miami could lose the San Diego AND Tennessee games and win the division via 7-9 tiebreak, with a better ‘common games’ record (4-4 vs. 3-5). Or, of course, we could simply win the last three and win it 8-8 vs. 7-9.
Miami & New England both win
Miami would need to win its final three to finish 9-7, and New England must lose its final three (Bucs, Jets, Fins) to finish 8-8. There is no other way, since Miami already cannot win a 9-7 division tiebreak, and with the Pats beating the Bills, we could not win an 8-8 tiebreak either. If the Pats win Sunday, we must win the division outright, with a better record, and that could only happen at 9-7 vs. 8-8.
This outcome is slightly worse than if the Fins and Pats both lose Sunday, because if we both lose then we need the Jets to beat the Pats, while if we both win then we need the Jets AND the Bucs to do it.
Miami loses & New England wins
New England clinches the division. Turn out the lights, the party’s over...
(Am I the only one who still misses Dandy Don?)
The Buffalo wildcard
No, the Bills can’t win a wildcard – they’re already eliminated from that. But if Miami and New England finish 8-8, and Buffalo wins its final four to finish 8-8 also, the Bills can take the division, if the Pats lose two more division games. This seems unlikely, given that Buffalo must play Denver and Cincinnati, but you never know. Miami cannot win a three-way tiebreak at 8-8 – it would be either the Bills or Pats.
Buffalo could of course also figure into a three-way tiebreak at 7-9, but this seems even less likely. However, it’s possible (but not guaranteed) for Miami to win a three-way, 7-9 tiebreak.
The real wildcard
Miami has almost no hope of winning a wildcard playoff spot. We might already be eliminated from this mathematically, but it’s complicated to figure out. We are definitely eliminated from the first wildcard spot, at least.
However, if Miami loses Sunday than we are definitely, mathematically out of the wildcard chase completely. (We might also be out of it even with a win, depending on what happens elsewhere.)
Bottom line for Sunday
Both games are important, but by a slight margin, New England losing is more important than Miami winning:
If the Pats win in the early game, they clinch if Miami loses in the late one, or by winning any one remaining game, or with any other Miami loss.
If the Pats lose, then Miami can really put the pressure on by upsetting the Chargers. But if we lose also, our chances can still remain alive until the Pats-Jets game two weeks from Monday night - even if the Pats beat Tampa next week.
