Merged: For the Fins, even 12-4 could fall short/playoffs | Page 2 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Merged: For the Fins, even 12-4 could fall short/playoffs

Originally posted by Sherif
12-4 will get a bye. It always does. If 12-4 doesn't get into the playoffs, I know it's possible, the NFL will change their playoff rules. Usually the way things play out 10-6 gets you in 80% of the time.
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I always thought that since the nFL went to 4 divisions that they should the teams with the 6 best records. If 4 teams from 1 div and 2 from another or 3 each from 2 div. then so be it. While highly unlikely a team can go 4-12 or even 3-13 and still possibly win a division, so i don't think they should qualify and a 12-4 team doesn't.
 
Originally posted by Sherif
12-4 will get a bye. It always does. If 12-4 doesn't get into the playoffs, I know it's possible, the NFL will change their playoff rules. Usually the way things play out 10-6 gets you in 80% of the time.
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Oh, I agree.... I doubt almost any of what I posted will happen, and certainly not all of it. I just enjoy playing with the numbers, and was surprised to find that a 6-0 finish doesn't mathematically guarantee anything. That could easily change Sunday.

My guess is that 12-4 will get a bye, but possibly not both of them. There are more losses coming for the AFC leaders via these games: Ten-Ind, Ind-NE, Ind-Den, KC-Den, NE-Mia, and of course probably a surprise or two somewhere else along the way.

The Fins' chances of getting in are very good at 11-5, decent at 10-6, and possible but unlikely at 9-7. Pretty much the same as last year.
 
Originally posted by NYCphan

The Fins' chances of getting in are very good at 11-5, decent at 10-6, and possible but unlikely at 9-7. Pretty much the same as last year.
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I hadda hit the john with a few minutes to go in that New England game last year. We did win, didn't we?
 
Originally posted by DeDolfan


I always thought that since the nFL went to 4 divisions that they should the teams with the 6 best records. If 4 teams from 1 div and 2 from another or 3 each from 2 div. then so be it. While highly unlikely a team can go 4-12 or even 3-13 and still possibly win a division, so i don't think they should qualify and a 12-4 team doesn't.
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But then there is no guaranteed reward for winning your division.
 
Originally posted by muddaconch


But then there is no guaranteed reward for winning your division.
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Why don't we just let everyone go, like hockey. Well, except the Cardinals.:tongue:

Seriously, everyone knows that you have to win the division. That is more important than anything else. I am okay with that.
 
Originally posted by DeDolfan
I always thought that since the nFL went to 4 divisions that they should the teams with the 6 best records. If 4 teams from 1 div and 2 from another or 3 each from 2 div. then so be it. While highly unlikely a team can go 4-12 or even 3-13 and still possibly win a division, so i don't think they should qualify and a 12-4 team doesn't.
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I don't agree; I like the current playoff setup. But if you wanted to have a system with the six best records, then why have divisions at all? You could just have an AFC category and still arrange the schedule any number of ways to encourage parity (based on how a team finished last year, etc.).

If a team is playing really well but fails to win the division (Indy or Tenn, this year) it's still pretty much assured of being in the playoffs at 12-4 or even 11-5. You'd have to have three very strong second-place teams before one was left out, and I don't think that's likely to happen. If a team finishes 10-6, say, and sits out while a 9-7 (or even 8-8) division winner gets in, I just don't think of it as a huge injustice -- 10-6 is only two games above .500, after all. If that's the best you can do, and you can't win your division, then it's just not your year.

Last year's #2 AFC wildcard (Cleveland) was 9-7. One division winner was also 9-7, while the others were all two games better or more. No 10-6 team failed to make the playoffs.

I think the current system keeps things interesting for a good variety of teams down the stretch, without letting so many teams into the playoffs that the regular season loses importance.

Just my thoughts.
 
Originally posted by NYCphan


I don't agree; I like the current playoff setup. But if you wanted to have a system with the six best records, then why have divisions at all? You could just have an AFC category and still arrange the schedule any number of ways to encourage parity (based on how a team finished last year, etc.).

If a team is playing really well but fails to win the division (Indy or Tenn, this year) it's still pretty much assured of being in the playoffs at 12-4 or even 11-5. You'd have to have three very strong second-place teams before one was left out, and I don't think that's likely to happen. If a team finishes 10-6, say, and sits out while a 9-7 (or even 8-8) division winner gets in, I just don't think of it as a huge injustice -- 10-6 is only two games above .500, after all. If that's the best you can do, and you can't win your division, then it's just not your year.

Last year's #2 AFC wildcard (Cleveland) was 9-7. One division winner was also 9-7, while the others were all two games better or more. No 10-6 team failed to make the playoffs.

I think the current system keeps things interesting for a good variety of teams down the stretch, without letting so many teams into the playoffs that the regular season loses importance.

Just my thoughts.
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I agree that if a 10-6 tean sat home and a 9-7 went to the playoffs, it's not a big deal. But I was talking extreme examples and while highly unlikely it will happen sooner or later. maybe not to that extreme but an unjustice none the less. but again, while it is highly unlikely that a 3-13 team wins a division ever it is also as unlikely that every team in a division will go 13-3, but possible and one will win the division via very complicated tie-breakers. But the year that a div all goes 13-3 is probably the same year that one div winner is 3-13 so you think it would be justice served for that team to go to the playoffs while one of the 13-3 teams go home?
If they did away with the divisions and all 16 teams were like one division like the old days, all the schedule makers would do would be to have everyone play each other one time and somebody else again based on strength of finish, etc. Parity shouldn't affect that in the least since FA has alot of player movment every year anyway.
But like I said, we're talking about extreme examples and may not ever happen but it could. But let something bizzare like that happen just once, a huge travesty of injustice would be declared by every team that would have other wise gone to the playoffs and the NFL would "fix" quicker than we could all say Jack Schidt!! :lol: But we would probably hear some grumbling if an 8-8 team made it and a 11-5 team went home tho. some day it will probably get so high tech with the schedules that they may wait to factor in all the FA movement into the strength of "otherwise" finish and such. Wow, that would be enough to curl anybody's hair!! But at least it would keep all the geeks busy !!! :lol: :lol:
 
NYC,

This reminds me of the playoff scenerio threads from last yr with two games left LOL.

You need to post here more, man. great post.
 
Originally posted by Surferosa
NYC,

This reminds me of the playoff scenerio threads from last yr with two games left LOL.

You need to post here more, man. great post.
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Glad you enjoy this kind of what-if stuff. This year I'll again post detailed (or long-winded, depending your perspective) playoff scenarios and updates each week, probably starting after the Dallas game. I've already figured out which teams would qualify for a 'common games' tiebreak vs. the Fins and what those records are, and am tracking the 'strength of victory' score for the AFC contenders, just in case a tiebreak gets that far (it actually might, this year).

I'll also post a list of each weekend's games and how their outcomes could affect Miami's playoff chances (beyond the obvious ones, such as Denver and New England losing). Right now, Miami's game in New England looks pivotal even for a wildcard (and more so than the Bills or Jets games) for reasons I'll explain later on. It's not absoutely necessary to win the next two (Washington, Dallas), but we really need at least one of them to avoid longshot status in December.

For now, let's just hope we're still in a position to consider playoff scenarios by mid-December.

One factoid for this weekend: the Bills cannot be mathematically eliminated from the AFC East race no matter what happens. The 'Bills Deathwatch' could start next week, though. Details to follow...
 
Originally posted by Phan4Ever
I love the smell of factoids in the morning.:)
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Yes the smell is lovely but it's the itching that gets me. You should try some cream on yours.
 
playoffs?

imo there is no way we shouldn't be in the playoffs, w/ 6 games to go we are still in good shape especially if we win tommorow.
obviously all people want to talk about is december and how bad we are but we still made the playoffs all those years.
 
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