Let me play the devil's advocate, here.
I'm not saying that Miami HAS to sign Plaxico Burress, but I would like the signing nonetheless.
My research indicates that even last year at his age he was amongst the most effective red zone targets in football. He converted 1 out of 3 red zone targets into a touchdown. Even if you only count guys that caught 7 touchdowns or more, that's better than most of the other receivers out there, upper quartile I think. If you count all the receivers out there it's more like top decile. So if you sign him, you know exactly what he would be here for.
This red zone thing is really, really important. There's a reason I emphasize this a lot when I'm talking about Daniel Thomas' red zone failures, or Ryan Tannehill's being the most effective goal line QB in the Draft, or Jonas Gray's being a highly effective goal line ball carrier, or even back before the 2011 season started when I suggested that Miami should consider subbing Mike Pouncey out for Joe Berger in short yardage and goal line/red zone situations (prior to Berger's being cut).
In today's NFL with the trends having gone where they've gone schematically, the rules being what they are, it's really not hard anymore for a well coached and well designed offense to move the ball between the 20's. NFL teams used to average 50 scoring trips (offensive TD, field goal) a season 20 years ago. Now they average 62 scoring trips per season. Standard deviation of offensive scoring is at a 20 year high with a solid, upward trend throughout the 20 years of data. Standard deviation of offensive touchdowns is at a 20 year high, similarly trending upward. Yet, the standard deviation of number of field goals is right in the mid-range for the 20 year period. What does that tell you, logically speaking?
It suggests to me that the league is trending toward more haves and have-nots when it comes to scoring points offensively, but not necessarily in field goal kicking but rather in touchdown-making. More and more, it's becoming easier to get your offense into scoring position, and so you're not going to separate yourself from the rest of the league unless you can go from scoring position to touchdowns. The teams that are separating themselves, and that will continue to separate themselves in the future, are the ones that can continue to punch the ball in the end zone when they get into scoring position.
Miami sucked at that the last two years. That's why my praise of Brian Daboll has been sparing. Yes, we moved the ball more. We went from ranked #26 in offensive scoring under Dan Henning to #19 in offensive scoring. However, our percentage of scoring drives that ended in touchdown only went from #29 in the league to #26. His offense moved the ball more between the 20's but we really weren't any better at converting scoring position into touchdowns. That was something I noticed in Cleveland as well, the sum-of-parts argument I kept making. You had a great rushing year out of Peyton Hillis, all this promise supposedly shown by a rookie Colt McCoy, a career year from Ben Watson, etc...yet you don't score much. The reality is the Browns ranked #26 in percentage of scoring trips ending in touchdowns in 2010. They ranked #29 in that area under Daboll in 2009. He came to Miami and it was the same thing, a sum-of-parts problem that is really a touchdown/red zone problem. We move the ball, Reggie Bush has a career year, we get better QB play out of Moore than we've had in years, but virtually the same percentage of scoring drives are ending in field goal as in 2010 when everyone was tearing their hair out about Miami's red zone inefficiency (fist pumps, etc).
So anyway getting back to Plaxico Burress, he's just another weapon to add that helps you punch the ball through from scoring position to the end zone. That makes him a potentially valuable addition to this team. Yes, I too would like to develop our young players. However, you can do that and still have Plaxico Burress. They're not mutually exclusive. The point is, the teams that are figuring out the red zone are separating themselves from the rest of the league, and to me that means that there are a lot of teams out there stuck in these archaic ways of thinking. Sub your starting center out for a backup in goal line situations? That's crazy! We can't do that just...just...just because it's crazy! Deal with Plaxico Burress' attitude just for his red zone proficiency? That's crazy! No way! I'd rather go with B.J. Cunningham! This kind of thinking, in my opinion, is holding some teams back.
If I were running a team, I would have a "whatever it takes" attitude on converting scoring opportunities into touchdowns. I don't care if I have to think outside the box a little bit. If that means holding some scoring specialists on the active roster instead of an extra special teams player, so be it. If that means doing things that others think is crazy, like subbing out your center, any of your other linemen, even your quarterback...so be it. If you have to practice and devote time to whole different schemes that seem incompatible with what you normally run, so be it. That's my mentality on the issue.
