emale2u1
Dolphin Fan Since '70
I know I am going to get ripped for what you are about to see in this post, but before you start ripping, read this. I tried to come up with an impartial way of predicting the season.
What I decided to do was to take three different on-line power rankings of the NFL teams, average those rankings and create an average ranking with the best team ranked 1 and the worst ranked 32. Each week of the season, I played the schedule, giving the home team an additional 7 positions . For each game, I gave the winning team a +1 and the losing team a -1. For example, if the 10th rated team played at the 15th rated team, I would give a win to the 15th rated team. In fact the 15th ranked team would beat any team up to the 7th rated team (tie goes to the home team). At the end of each week, I adjusted the rankings by adding the +1 or -1 to the teams prior ranking and the re-ranking the new totals. This is by no means scientific, as I didn't back test my assumptions. I don't know if using a home factor of 10 would work better or worse, or if giving winning teams +2 instead of the +1 would be a better predictor. With that in mind (and I hope you aren't too confused), below are the records for each team and the final standings as per this system.
AFC
East
New England 14-2
Miami 12-4
Buffalo 3-13
NYJ 3-13
South
Jacksonville 13-3
Indianapolis 11-5
Houston 3-13
Tennessee 2-14
North
Pittsburgh 14-2
Cincinnati 7-9
Baltimore 7-9
Cleveland 3-13
West
Denver 14-2
San Diego 10-6
Kansas City 8-8
Oakland 6-10
NFC
East
Dallas 11-5
NYG 10-6
Washington 9-7
Philadelphia 7-9
South
Carolina 16-0
Tampa Bay 9-7
Atlanta 3-13
New Orleans 3-13
North
Chicago 12-4
Minnesota 7-9
Green Bay 7-9
Detroit 6-10
West
Seattle 15-1
Arizona 6-10
St. Louis 4-12
San Francisco 1-15
The bolded team is the division winner and the italized teams are the wild cards. Tampa gets the tie breaker over Washington due to is win at HOME in week 11.
Now I know that the first thing that jumps out at you is Carolina's perfect record. In fact it appears as if the rankings are both top heavy and bottom heavy. That is because there are always big upsets that tend to even out the standings a little. Leaving that aside, you can see which teams appear to have the easiest schedules especially when factoring in where they play their harder games. Carolina was only the average 4th ranked teams in my preseason power rankings, but even so they won all their games. This means that all of their games against high ranked opponents are at home. (Tampa was a preseason #12). If they are fortunate not to have major injuries, Carolina might just be favored in every one of their games. Unfortunately for us, New England also appears to have a favorable schedule. The team that really popped out at me was San Diego. Last year their schedule was murder, this year my system has them at 10 and 6. And that is with a preseason average ranking only 18th place. If they were ranked a little higher, they would most likely have been a wild card team or better.
Ok, give me your best shot. If anyone is intersted, I can send my spreadsheet.
Marshall
What I decided to do was to take three different on-line power rankings of the NFL teams, average those rankings and create an average ranking with the best team ranked 1 and the worst ranked 32. Each week of the season, I played the schedule, giving the home team an additional 7 positions . For each game, I gave the winning team a +1 and the losing team a -1. For example, if the 10th rated team played at the 15th rated team, I would give a win to the 15th rated team. In fact the 15th ranked team would beat any team up to the 7th rated team (tie goes to the home team). At the end of each week, I adjusted the rankings by adding the +1 or -1 to the teams prior ranking and the re-ranking the new totals. This is by no means scientific, as I didn't back test my assumptions. I don't know if using a home factor of 10 would work better or worse, or if giving winning teams +2 instead of the +1 would be a better predictor. With that in mind (and I hope you aren't too confused), below are the records for each team and the final standings as per this system.
AFC
East
New England 14-2
Miami 12-4
Buffalo 3-13
NYJ 3-13
South
Jacksonville 13-3
Indianapolis 11-5
Houston 3-13
Tennessee 2-14
North
Pittsburgh 14-2
Cincinnati 7-9
Baltimore 7-9
Cleveland 3-13
West
Denver 14-2
San Diego 10-6
Kansas City 8-8
Oakland 6-10
NFC
East
Dallas 11-5
NYG 10-6
Washington 9-7
Philadelphia 7-9
South
Carolina 16-0
Tampa Bay 9-7
Atlanta 3-13
New Orleans 3-13
North
Chicago 12-4
Minnesota 7-9
Green Bay 7-9
Detroit 6-10
West
Seattle 15-1
Arizona 6-10
St. Louis 4-12
San Francisco 1-15
The bolded team is the division winner and the italized teams are the wild cards. Tampa gets the tie breaker over Washington due to is win at HOME in week 11.
Now I know that the first thing that jumps out at you is Carolina's perfect record. In fact it appears as if the rankings are both top heavy and bottom heavy. That is because there are always big upsets that tend to even out the standings a little. Leaving that aside, you can see which teams appear to have the easiest schedules especially when factoring in where they play their harder games. Carolina was only the average 4th ranked teams in my preseason power rankings, but even so they won all their games. This means that all of their games against high ranked opponents are at home. (Tampa was a preseason #12). If they are fortunate not to have major injuries, Carolina might just be favored in every one of their games. Unfortunately for us, New England also appears to have a favorable schedule. The team that really popped out at me was San Diego. Last year their schedule was murder, this year my system has them at 10 and 6. And that is with a preseason average ranking only 18th place. If they were ranked a little higher, they would most likely have been a wild card team or better.
Ok, give me your best shot. If anyone is intersted, I can send my spreadsheet.
Marshall
