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Miami @ Cincinnati - By the Numbers

J. David Wannyheimer

J. David Wannyheimer

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Miami has a Thursday night road game against Cincinnati coming up this week. Here are some facts:


Home vs Road on Thursday Night

Please note that when discussing Thursday Night Football, I am not including the Dallas/Detroit Thanksgiving Day games that are played annually, nor am I including the NFL's Thursday Night opener that features the defending Super Bowl champions.

Since 2012, when the NFL expanded its Thursday night game slate -- and started using it as a dumping ground to give prime time exposure to garbage teams like our Dolphins -- the home team has a record of 31-25, which means that the home team has won 55% of those games. The overall winning percentage for home teams in the NFL is typically cited to be about 56%.

We're playing Cincinnati in week four, early in the season. Do road teams fare any better in the first month of the season? The answer is actually... yes. Since 2012, the home team is just 7-7 in Thursday Night games played during weeks 2-4 of the NFL season.

So based on what we've seen in the last four years of Thursday Night football, the Miami Dolphins are not facing any particular hardship playing the Bengals on the road here. If anything, the (admittedly limited) evidence suggests that being on the road for a Thursday Night game early in the year may actually mitigate the opposing team's home field advantage.



Miami vs Cincinnati

Both teams enter this game 1-2. However -- and please don't laugh -- the Dolphins are actually the better team on paper right now. Miami has scored 64 points and given up 67, a differential of -3. Cincinnati has scored 56 points and given up 75, a differential of -19.

Now let's consider the competition. According to the Simple Rating System, the Dolphins have performed better against superior competition than the Bengals have performed against inferior competition. Of course, please keep in mind that all of this is only after three games.

Miami's schedule thus far has a strength of 7.4, the second toughest in the NFL. Miami's performance against that schedule has been good for an SRS rating of 6.4, tied with Kansas City for third best in the AFC. Cincinnati, on the other hand, has played against a SoS of 4.4 and rates a -1.9, which puts them near the bottom of the heap in the AFC.

Incidentally, it's worth pointing out that the Browns, the Cleveland freaking Browns, have played far and away the most difficult schedule in the NFL to open up the season and have actually been competitive enough to rank a positive 1.6 in the SRS. :idk:

And because I know that the abstract strength of schedule crap is not only abstract, but of questionable utility after 3 games, here are the numerical rankings for the teams in some key statistics that I know certain posters on this board like a lot: :lol:

Miami
Offense Net Passing Yards / Attempt: 7.1 (11th in NFL)
Defense Net Passing Yards / Attempt: 6.4 (15th in NFL)

Offense Net Rushing Yards / Attempt: 4.1 (11th in NFL)
Defense Net Rushing Yards / Attempt: 4.3 (21st in NFL)

Offense Rushing Touchdowns: 3 (9th in NFL)
Defense Rushing Touchdowns: 2 (9th in NFL)

Offense Passing Touchdowns: 5 (8th in NFL)
Defense Passing Touchdowns: 4 (14th in NFL)

Offense Turnovers: 7 (26th in NFL)
Defense Turnovers: 4 (16th in NFL)


Cincinnati
Offense Net Passing Yards / Attempt: 6.9 (13th in NFL)
Defense Net Passing Yards / Attempt: 6.7 (17th in NFL)

Offense Net Rushing Yards / Attempt: 3.7 (23rd in NFL)
Defense Net Rushing Yards / Attempt: 3.7 (10th in NFL)

Offense Rushing Touchdowns: 3 (9th in NFL)
Defense Rushing Touchdowns: 0 (1st in NFL)

Offense Passing Touchdowns: 2 (29th in NFL)
Defense Passing Touchdowns: 9 (30th in NFL)

Offense Turnovers: 5 (16th in NFL)
Defense Turnovers: 4 (16th in NFL)



So I really have three conclusions, looking at all of this stuff.

1. Stop turning the football over to the other team.
2. Cincinnati's run defense is very, very good.
3. This is a very winnable football game.

And that's all, folks.
 
We are 3 and 3 since they started the Thursday night games. Nose bleed seats are around $55 right now. I might have to attend for that price.
 
Phinatic8u said:
Wasn't Wake's walk off safety on a Thursday game?
Click to expand...

Yep. 2013 Halloween game vs Cincinnati. We were at home. We're 0-2 on the road in Thursday night games since 2012 (@BUF and @NE) and Cincinnati is 1-1 at home (both vs CLE).

My honest opinion after taking a good luck at the result of Thursday Night games since the NFL moved to the expanded / every team gets a primetime game format is that the Thursday Night road game hell theory is just a myth.
 
Phinatic8u said:
Wasn't Wake's walk off safety on a Thursday game?
Click to expand...

Yes it was, 2013


Games involving Miami beginning with the 2009 season ending with the 2016 season (games on Thu):

2009 season: Week 11 Thu Nov 19 2009 at Car Miami 24, Carolina 17
2010 season: Week 11 Thu Nov 18 2010 at Mia Chicago 16, Miami 0
2012 season: Week 11 Thu Nov 15 2012 at Buf Buffalo 19, Miami 14
2013 season: Week 9 Thu Oct 31 2013 at Mia Miami 22, Cincinnati 20 (OT)
2014 season: Week 11 Thu Nov 13 2014 at Mia Miami 22, Buffalo 9
2015 season: Week 8 Thu Oct 29 2015 at NE New England 36, Miami 7
2016 season: Week 4 Thu Sep 29 2016 Mia at Cin

Primary team Miami: 3-3

Points for Miami: 89
Points against Miami: 117


We are not big scorers on Thursday night. Expect a low scoring game.
 
In a game where we don't have our starting RB and starting center, and going against a tough run d, it's going to be up to Tannehill, you know QB 1, to make it a game with the passing game. Go ahead and tell me your confidence level on that.
 
J David, I'll be at the game. Section 106 front row. We have won the last 2 here. great write up. All week leading up to this game the media has questioned the bengals
ability to stop the run. Looks like Punk LB Berfict and TE Eifert will be playing
 
the good news is that Dalton is leading the league in getting sacked. Mario, Suh and Wake need to tee off. that's all the defense has going for itself
 
Good stats Fin.

But, Gase's offense has already proven to be a better point scorer than Philbin's and Sparano's. Just based on the fact that when they play bad they still score 30 :lol:
 
Give Drake another opportunity to shine. Give him about 15 touches and sprinkle in some Pead and Ajayi. Even if there run D is good it's time for the rookie to cut his teeth against stout competition. Wake needs more snaps, too.
 
Not for nothing but we've had some recent success against the Bengals despite them being a better team. I remember the forum being inundated with a slew of trash talking Bengals fans years back. They have all but vanished.

I expect Green to have a field day but I think it's going to come down to who can run the ball better for four quarters.
 
By the numbers Fins are 5-0 in Ohio when I attend the game.

1995 season: Week 5 Sun Oct 1 1995 at Cin Miami 26, Cincinnati 23
2000 season: Week 5 Sun Oct 1 2000 at Cin Miami 31, Cincinnati 16
2010 season: Week 8 Sun Oct 31 2010 at Cin Miami 22, Cincinnati 14
2012 season: Week 5 Sun Oct 7 2012 at Cin Miami 17, Cincinnati 13
2013 season: Week 1 Sun Sep 8 2013 at Cle Miami 23, Cleveland 10
 
Fins1971 said:
By the numbers Fins are 5-0 in Ohio when I attend the game.

1995 season: Week 5 Sun Oct 1 1995 at Cin Miami 26, Cincinnati 23
2000 season: Week 5 Sun Oct 1 2000 at Cin Miami 31, Cincinnati 16
2010 season: Week 8 Sun Oct 31 2010 at Cin Miami 22, Cincinnati 14
2012 season: Week 5 Sun Oct 7 2012 at Cin Miami 17, Cincinnati 13
2013 season: Week 1 Sun Sep 8 2013 at Cle Miami 23, Cleveland 10
Click to expand...
you better get your ass to the game then
 
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